%PDF-1.6
%忏嫌
1 0 obj<>
endobj
2 0 obj<>
endobj
3 0 obj<>
endobj
5 0 obj<>
endobj
7 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
8 0 obj<>
endobj
9 0 obj<>>>
endobj
10 0 obj<>
endobj
11 0 obj<><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><>]/P 10 0 R/S/Article/T()/Pg 7 0 R>>
endobj
12 0 obj<>
endobj
13 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
14 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
15 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
16 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
17 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
18 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
19 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
20 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
21 0 obj[20 0 R]
endobj
22 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
23 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
24 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
25 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
26 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
27 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
28 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
29 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
30 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
31 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
32 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
33 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
34 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
35 0 obj<>
endobj
36 0 obj<>
endobj
37 0 obj<>
endobj
39 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
40 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
41 0 obj<>
endobj
43 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
44 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
46 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
47 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
49 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
50 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
51 0 obj<>
endobj
53 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
54 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
55 0 obj[54 0 R]
endobj
56 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
57 0 obj<>
endobj
58 0 obj<>
endobj
60 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
61 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
62 0 obj[61 0 R 63 0 R]
endobj
63 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
64 0 obj<>
endobj
65 0 obj<>
endobj
66 0 obj[56 0 R/XYZ 0 256.372 null]
endobj
67 0 obj[56 0 R/XYZ 0 132.638 null]
endobj
68 0 obj[56 0 R/XYZ 0 41.5457 null]
endobj
69 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
71 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
72 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
74 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
75 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
77 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
78 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
79 0 obj[78 0 R]
endobj
80 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
82 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
83 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
84 0 obj[83 0 R 85 0 R]
endobj
85 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
86 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
87 0 obj<>
endobj
89 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
90 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
91 0 obj[90 0 R 92 0 R]
endobj
92 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
93 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
95 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
96 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
97 0 obj[96 0 R 98 0 R 99 0 R]
endobj
98 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
99 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
100 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
102 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
103 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
104 0 obj[103 0 R]
endobj
105 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
107 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
108 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
109 0 obj[108 0 R]
endobj
110 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
112 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
113 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
114 0 obj<>
endobj
116 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
117 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
119 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
120 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
122 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
123 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
125 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
126 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
127 0 obj[126 0 R]
endobj
128 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
130 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
131 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
132 0 obj<>
endobj
134 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
135 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
137 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
138 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
139 0 obj[138 0 R 140 0 R 141 0 R 142 0 R 143 0 R]
endobj
140 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
141 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
142 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
143 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
144 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
146 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
147 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
149 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
150 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
151 0 obj[150 0 R]
endobj
152 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
154 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
155 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
156 0 obj[155 0 R 157 0 R]
endobj
157 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
158 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
159 0 obj<>
endobj
161 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
162 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
164 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
165 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
167 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
168 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
170 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
171 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
173 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
174 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
175 0 obj<>
endobj
177 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
178 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
180 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
181 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
182 0 obj[181 0 R]
endobj
183 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
185 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
186 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
188 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
189 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
191 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
192 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
193 0 obj[192 0 R]
endobj
194 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
195 0 obj<>
endobj
197 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
198 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
200 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
201 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
203 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
204 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
206 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
207 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
209 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
210 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
211 0 obj<>
endobj
213 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
214 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
215 0 obj<>
endobj
216 0 obj<>
endobj
218 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
219 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
221 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
222 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
224 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
225 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
227 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
228 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
229 0 obj<>
endobj
231 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
232 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
234 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
235 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
237 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
238 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
240 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
241 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
243 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
244 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
245 0 obj<>
endobj
247 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
248 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
250 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
251 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
253 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
254 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
256 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
257 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
259 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
260 0 obj<>
endobj
262 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
263 0 obj<>
endobj
265 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
266 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
268 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
269 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
271 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
272 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
274 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
275 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
277 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
278 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
279 0 obj<>
endobj
281 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
282 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
284 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
285 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
287 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
288 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
290 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
291 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
293 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
294 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
295 0 obj<>
endobj
297 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
298 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
299 0 obj<>
endobj
301 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
302 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
304 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
305 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
307 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
308 0 obj[305 0 R/XYZ 0 694.854 null]
endobj
309 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
311 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
312 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
313 0 obj<>
endobj
315 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
316 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
318 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
319 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
321 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
322 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
324 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
325 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
327 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
328 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
329 0 obj<>
endobj
331 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
332 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
334 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
335 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
337 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
338 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
340 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
341 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
343 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
344 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
345 0 obj<>
endobj
347 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
348 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
350 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
351 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
353 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
354 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
356 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
357 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
359 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
360 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
361 0 obj[360 0 R]
endobj
362 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
363 0 obj<>
endobj
365 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
366 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
368 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
369 0 obj<>
endobj
370 0 obj<>
endobj
371 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
373 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
374 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
376 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
377 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
379 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
380 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
381 0 obj<>
endobj
383 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
384 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
385 0 obj<>
endobj
387 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
388 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
390 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
391 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
392 0 obj[391 0 R]
endobj
393 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
395 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
396 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
398 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
399 0 obj<>/A<>/Border[0 0 0]>>
endobj
400 0 obj[399 0 R]
endobj
401 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
402 0 obj<>
endobj
404 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
405 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
407 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
408 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
410 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
411 0 obj[408 0 R/XYZ 0 72.0644 null]
endobj
412 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
414 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
415 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
417 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
418 0 obj<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text]>>/Type/Page>>
endobj
419 0 obj<>
endobj
421 0 obj[11 0 R]
endobj
431 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 748.925 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 737.6587 Tm
( NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( WASHINGTON, D.C. 20506)Tj
0 -2.4 TD
( April 24, 1974)Tj
0 -2.4 TD
(National Security Study Memorandum 200)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(--------------------------------------)Tj
0 -2.4 TD
(TO: The Secretary of Defense)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( The Secretary of Agriculture)Tj
T*
( The Director of Central Intelligence)Tj
T*
( The Deputy Secretary of State)Tj
T*
( Administrator, Agency for International Development)Tj
0 -2.4 TD
(SUBJECT: Implications of Worldwide Population Growth for U.S. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( Security and Overseas Interests)Tj
0 -2.4 TD
(The President has directed a study of the impact of world population )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(growth on U.S. security and overseas interests. The study should look )Tj
T*
(forward at least until the year 2000, and use several alternative )Tj
T*
(reasonable projections of population growth.)Tj
0 -2.4 TD
(In terms of each projection, the study should assess:)Tj
T*
( - the corresponding pace of development, especially in poorer)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( countries;)Tj
0 -2.4 TD
( - the demand for US exports, especially of food, and the trade)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( problems the US may face arising from competition for re-)Tj
T*
( sources; and)Tj
0 -2.4 TD
( - the likelihood that population growth or imbalances will )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( produce disruptive foreign policies and international )Tj
T*
( instability.)Tj
0 -2.4 TD
(The study should focus on the international political and economic )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(implications of population growth rather than its ecological, socio-)Tj
T*
(logical or other aspects.)Tj
0 -2.4 TD
(The study would then offer possible courses of action for the United )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(States in dealing with population matters abroad, particularly in )Tj
T*
(developing countries, with special attention to these questions:)Tj
0 -2.4 TD
( - What, if any, new initiatives by the United States are needed )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( to focus international attention on the population problem?)Tj
0 -2.4 TD
( - Can technological innovations or development reduce )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( growth or ameliorate its effects?)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(1 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
432 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 741.3731 Tm
( - Could the United States improve its assistance in the population)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( field and if so, in what form and through which agencies -- )Tj
T*
( bilateral, multilateral, private?)Tj
0 -2.4 TD
(The study should take into account the President's concern that )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population policy is a human concern intimately related to the )Tj
T*
(dignity of the individual and the objective of the United States is to )Tj
T*
(work closely with others, rather than seek to impose our views on )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(others.)Tj
0 -2.4 TD
(The President has directed that the study be accomplished by the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(NSC Under Secretaries Committee. The Chairman, Under Secretaries )Tj
T*
(Committee, is requested to forward the study together with the )Tj
T*
(Committee's action recommendations no later than May 29, )Tj
T*
(1974 for consideration by the President.)Tj
0 -4.8 TD
( HENRY A. KISSINGER)Tj
T*
(cc: Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 -2.452 TD
( )Tj
0 -1 TD
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
0 -1.105 TD
( NSSM 200:)Tj
0 -2.4 TD
( IMPLICATIONS OF WORLDWIDE POPULATION GROWTH)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( FOR U.S. SECURITY AND OVERSEAS INTERESTS)Tj
0 -3.6 TD
( December 10, 1974)Tj
0 -6 TD
( CLASSIFIED BY Harry C. Blaney, III)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( SUBJECT TO GENERAL DECLASSIFICATION SCHEDULE OF)Tj
T*
( EXECUTIVE ORDER 11652 AUTOMATICALLY DOWN-)Tj
T*
( GRADED AT TWO YEAR INTERVALS AND DECLASSIFIED)Tj
T*
( ON DECEMBER 31, 1980.)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(2 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
433 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 711.6575 Tm
(This document can only be declassified by the White House.)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(----------------------------------------------------------)Tj
0 -6 TD
( Declassified/Released on 7/3/89)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( -----------)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( under provisions of E.O. 12356)Tj
T*
( by F. Graboske, National Security Council)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 -2.452 TD
( )Tj
0 -1 TD
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
0 -1.105 TD
(EXECUTIVE SUMMARY )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(World Demographic Trends )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 1. World Population growth since World War II is quantitatively and \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(qualitatively different from any previous epoch in human history. The )Tj
T*
(rapid reduction in death rates, unmatched by corresponding birth rate )Tj
T*
(reductions, has brought total growth rates close to 2 percent a year, )Tj
T*
(compared with about 1 percent before World War II, under 0.5 percent in \
)Tj
T*
(1750-1900, and far lower rates before 1750. The effect is to double the \
)Tj
T*
(world's population in 35 years instead of 100 years. Almost 80 million a\
re )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(now being added each year, compared with 10 million in 1900. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 2. The second new feature of population trends is the sharp )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(differentiation between rich and poor countries. Since 1950, population \
in )Tj
T*
(the former group has been growing at 0 to 1.5 percent per year, and in t\
he )Tj
T*
(latter at 2.0 to 3.5 percent \(doubling in 20 to 35 years\). Some of the\
)Tj
T*
(highest rates of increase are in areas already densely populated and wit\
h )Tj
T*
(a weak resource base. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 3. Because of the momentum of population dynamics, reductions in bir\
th )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(rates affect total numbers only slowly. High birth rates in the recent )Tj
T*
(past have resulted in a high proportion in the youngest age groups, so )Tj
T*
(that there will continue to be substantial population increases over man\
y )Tj
T*
(years even if a two-child family should become the norm in the future. )Tj
T*
(Policies to reduce fertility will have their main effects on total numbe\
rs )Tj
T*
(only after several decades. However, if future numbers are to be kept )Tj
T*
(within reasonable bounds, it is urgent that measures to reduce fertility\
)Tj
T*
(be started and made effective in the 1970's and 1980's. Moreover, progra\
ms )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(3 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
434 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(started now to reduce birth rates will have short run advantages for )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(developing countries in lowered demands on food, health and educational \
)Tj
T*
(and other services and in enlarged capacity to contribute to productive \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(investments, thus accelerating development. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 4. U.N. estimates use the 3.6 billion population of 1970 as a base )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(\(there are nearly 4 billion now\) and project from about 6 billion to 8\
)Tj
T*
(billion people for the year 2000 with the U.S. medium estimate at 6.4 )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(billion. The U.S. medium projections show a world population of 12 billi\
on )Tj
T*
(by 2075 which implies a five-fold increase in south and southeast Asia a\
nd )Tj
T*
(in Latin American and a seven-fold increase in Africa, compared with a )Tj
T*
(doubling in east Asia and a 40% increase in the presently developed )Tj
T*
(countries \(see )Tj
ET
1 0 0 RG
0.379 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d
138.85 574.855 m
190.852 574.855 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 138.8497 575.9916 Tm
(Table I)Tj
0 0 0 rg
(\). Most demographers, including the U.N. and the U.)Tj
-9 -1.343 Td
(S. Population Council, regard the range of 10 to 13 billion as the most \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(likely level for world population stability, even with intensive efforts\
)Tj
T*
(at fertility control. \(These figures assume, that sufficient food could\
be )Tj
T*
(produced and distributed to avoid limitation through famines.\) )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Adequacy of World Food Supplies )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 5. Growing populations will have a serious impact on the need for fo\
od )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(especially in the poorest, fastest growing LDCs. While under normal )Tj
T*
(weather conditions and assuming food production growth in line with rece\
nt )Tj
T*
(trends, total world agricultural production could expand faster than )Tj
T*
(population, there will nevertheless be serious problems in food )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(distribution and financing, making shortages, even at today's poor )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(nutrition levels, probable in many of the larger more populous LDC )Tj
T*
(regions. Even today 10 to 20 million people die each year due, directly \
or )Tj
T*
(indirectly, to malnutrition. Even more serious is the consequence of maj\
or )Tj
T*
(crop failures which are likely to occur from time to time. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 6. The most serious consequence for the short and middle term is the\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(possibility of massive famines in certain parts of the world, especially\
)Tj
T*
(the poorest regions. World needs for food rise by 2-1/2 percent or more \
)Tj
T*
(per year \(making a modest allowance for improved diets and nutrition\) \
at a )Tj
T*
(time when readily available fertilizer and well-watered land is already \
)Tj
T*
(largely being utilized. Therefore, additions to food production must com\
e )Tj
T*
(mainly from higher yields. Countries with large population growth cannot\
)Tj
T*
(afford constantly growing imports, but for them to raise food output )Tj
T*
(steadily by 2 to 4 percent over the next generation or two is a formidab\
le )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(challenge. Capital and foreign exchange requirements for intensive )Tj
T*
(agriculture are heavy, and are aggravated by energy cost increases and )Tj
T*
(fertilizer scarcities and price rises. The institutional, technical, and\
)Tj
T*
(economic problems of transforming traditional agriculture are also very \
)Tj
T*
(difficult to overcome. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 7. In addition, in some overpopulated regions, rapid population grow\
th )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(presses on a fragile environment in ways that threaten longer-term food \
)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(4 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
435 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(production: through cultivation of marginal lands, overgrazing, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(desertification, deforestation, and soil erosion, with consequent )Tj
T*
(destruction of land and pollution of water, rapid siltation of reservoir\
s, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and impairment of inland and coastal fisheries. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Minerals and Fuel )Tj
T*
( 8. Rapid population growth is not in itself a major factor in pressu\
re )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(on depletable resources \(fossil fuels and other minerals\), since deman\
d )Tj
T*
(for them depends more on levels of industrial output than on numbers of \
)Tj
T*
(people. On the other hand, the world is increasingly dependent on minera\
l )Tj
T*
(supplies from developing countries, and if rapid population frustrates )Tj
T*
(their prospects for economic development and social progress, the )Tj
T*
(resulting instability may undermine the conditions for expanded output a\
nd )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(sustained flows of such resources. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 9. There will be serious problems for some of the poorest LDCs with \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(rapid population growth. They will increasingly find it difficult to pay\
)Tj
T*
(for needed raw materials and energy. Fertilizer, vital for their own )Tj
T*
(agricultural production, will be difficult to obtain for the next few )Tj
T*
(years. Imports for fuel and other materials will cause grave problems )Tj
T*
(which could impinge on the U.S., both through the need to supply greater\
)Tj
T*
(financial support and in LDC efforts to obtain better terms of trade )Tj
T*
(through higher prices for exports. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Economic Development and Population Growth )Tj
T*
( 10. Rapid population growth creates a severe drag on rates of econom\
ic )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(development otherwise attainable, sometimes to the point of preventing a\
ny )Tj
T*
(increase in per capita incomes. In addition to the overall impact on per\
)Tj
T*
(capita incomes, rapid population growth seriously affects a vast range o\
f )Tj
T*
(other aspects of the quality of life important to social and economic )Tj
T*
(progress in the LDCs. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 11. Adverse economic factors which generally result from rapid )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population growth include: )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 192.8725 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 192.8725 Tm
(reduced family savings and domestic investment; )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 161.2113 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 161.2113 Tm
(increased need for large amounts of foreign exchange for food )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(imports; )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 114.6922 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 114.6922 Tm
(intensification of severe unemployment and underemployment; )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 83.0309 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 83.0309 Tm
(the need for large expenditures for services such as dependency )Tj
T*
(support, education, and health which would be used for more )Tj
T*
(productive investment; )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(5 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
436 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 754.6598 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 754.6598 Tm
(the concentration of developmental resources on increasing food )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(production to ensure survival for a larger population, rather than on )Tj
T*
(improving living conditions for smaller total numbers. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( 12. While GNP increased per annum at an average rate of 5 percent in\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(LDCs over the last decade, the population increase of 2.5 percent reduce\
d )Tj
T*
(the average annual per capita growth rate to only 2.5 percent. In many )Tj
T*
(heavily populated areas this rate was 2 percent or less. In the LDCs )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(hardest hit by the oil crisis, with an aggregate population of 800 )Tj
T*
(million, GNP increases may be reduced to less than 1 percent per capita \
)Tj
T*
(per year for the remainder of the 1970's. For the poorest half of the )Tj
T*
(populations of these countries, with average incomes of less than $100, \
)Tj
T*
(the prospect is for no growth or retrogression for this period. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 13. If significant progress can be made in slowing population growth\
, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the positive impact on growth of GNP and )Tj
/T1_3 1 Tf
(per capita)Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
( income will be )Tj
T*
(significant. Moreover, economic and social progress will probably )Tj
T*
(contribute further to the decline in fertility rates. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 14. High birth rates appear to stem primarily from: )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
(a. inadequate information about and availability of means of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(fertility control; )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(b. inadequate motivation for reduced numbers of children )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(combined with motivation for many children resulting from still )Tj
T*
(high infant and child mortality and need for support in old age; )Tj
T*
(and )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(c. the slowness of change in family preferences in response to )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(changes in environment. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( 15. The universal objective of increasing the world's standard of )Tj
T*
(living dictates that economic growth outpace population growth. In many \
)Tj
T*
(high population growth areas of the world, the largest proportion of GNP\
)Tj
T*
(is consumed, with only a small amount saved. Thus, a small proportion of\
)Tj
T*
(GNP is available for investment -- the "engine" of economic growth. Most\
)Tj
T*
(experts agree that, with fairly constant costs per acceptor, expenditure\
s )Tj
T*
(on effective family planning services are generally one of the most cost\
)Tj
T*
(effective investments for an LDC country seeking to improve overall )Tj
T*
(welfare and per capita economic growth. We cannot wait for overall )Tj
T*
(modernization and development to produce lower fertility rates naturally\
)Tj
T*
(since this will undoubtedly take many decades in most developing )Tj
T*
(countries, during which time rapid population growth will tend to slow )Tj
T*
(development and widen even more the gap between rich and poor. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 16. The interrelationships between development and population growth\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(are complex and not wholly understood. Certain aspects of economic )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(6 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
437 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(development and modernization appear to be more directly related to lowe\
r )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(birth rates than others. Thus certain development programs may bring a )Tj
T*
(faster demographic transition to lower fertility rates than other aspect\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(of development. The World Population Plan of Action adopted at the World\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Population Conference recommends that countries working to affect )Tj
T*
(fertility levels should give priority to development programs and health\
)Tj
T*
(and education strategies which have a decisive effect on fertility. )Tj
T*
(International cooperation should give priority to assisting such nationa\
l )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(efforts. These programs include: \(a\) improved health care and nutritio\
n to )Tj
T*
(reduce child mortality, \(b\) education and improved social status for )Tj
T*
(women; \(c\) increased female employment; \(d\) improved old-age securit\
y; and )Tj
T*
(\(e\) assistance for the rural poor, who generally have the highest )Tj
T*
(fertility, with actions to redistribute income and resources including )Tj
T*
(providing privately owned farms. However, one cannot proceed simply from\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(identification of relationships to specific large-scale operational )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(programs. For example, we do not yet know of cost-effective ways to )Tj
T*
(encourage increased female employment, particularly if we are concerned \
)Tj
T*
(about not adding to male unemployment. We do not yet know what specific \
)Tj
T*
(packages of programs will be most cost effective in many situations. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 17. There is need for more information on cost effectiveness of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(different approaches on both the "supply" and the "demand" side of the )Tj
T*
(picture. On the supply side, intense efforts are required to assure full\
)Tj
T*
(availability by 1980 of birth control information and means to all ferti\
le )Tj
T*
(individuals, especially in rural areas. Improvement is also needed in )Tj
T*
(methods of birth control most acceptable and useable by the rural poor. \
On )Tj
T*
(the demand side, further experimentation and implementation action )Tj
T*
(projects and programs are needed. In particular, more research is needed\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(on the motivation of the poorest who often have the highest fertility )Tj
T*
(rates. Assistance programs must be more precisely targeted to this group\
)Tj
T*
(than in the past. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 18. It may well be that desired family size will not decline to near\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(replacement levels until the lot of the LDC rural poor improves to the )Tj
T*
(extent that the benefits of reducing family size appear to them to )Tj
T*
(outweigh the costs. For urban people, a rapidly growing element in the )Tj
T*
(LDCs, the liabilities of having too many children are already becoming )Tj
T*
(apparent. Aid recipients and donors must also emphasize development and \
)Tj
T*
(improvements in the quality of life of the poor, if significant progress\
)Tj
T*
(is to be made in controlling population growth. Although it was adopted \
)Tj
T*
(primarily for other reasons, the new emphasis of AID's legislation on )Tj
T*
(problems of the poor \(which is echoed in comparable changes in policy )Tj
T*
(emphasis by other donors and by an increasing number of LDC's\) is direc\
tly )Tj
T*
(relevant to the conditions required for fertility reduction. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Political Effects of Population Factors )Tj
T*
( 19. The political consequences of current population factors in the \
)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(7 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
438 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(LDCs -- rapid growth, internal migration, high percentages of young )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(people, slow improvement in living standards, urban concentrations, and \
)Tj
T*
(pressures for foreign migration -- are damaging to the internal stabilit\
y )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and international relations of countries in whose advancement the U.S. i\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(interested, thus creating political or even national security problems f\
or )Tj
T*
(the U.S. In a broader sense, there is a major risk of severe damage to )Tj
T*
(world economic, political, and ecological systems and, as these systems \
)Tj
T*
(begin to fail, to our humanitarian values. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 20. The pace of internal migration from countryside to over-swollen \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(cities is greatly intensified by rapid population growth. Enormous burde\
ns )Tj
T*
(are placed on LDC governments for public administration, sanitation, )Tj
T*
(education, police, and other services, and urban slum dwellers \(though \
)Tj
T*
(apparently not recent migrants\) may serve as a volatile, violent force \
)Tj
T*
(which threatens political stability. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 21. Adverse socio-economic conditions generated by these and related\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(factors may contribute to high and increasing levels of child abandonmen\
t, )Tj
T*
(juvenile delinquency, chronic and growing underemployment and )Tj
T*
(unemployment, petty thievery, organized brigandry, food riots, separatis\
t )Tj
T*
(movements, communal massacres, revolutionary actions and counter-)Tj
T*
(revolutionary coups. Such conditions also detract from the environment )Tj
T*
(needed to attract the foreign capital vital to increasing levels of )Tj
T*
(economic growth in these areas. If these conditions result in )Tj
T*
(expropriation of foreign interests, such action, from an economic )Tj
T*
(viewpoint, is not in the best interests of either the investing country \
or )Tj
T*
(the host government. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 22. In international relations, population factors are crucial in, a\
nd )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(often determinants of, violent conflicts in developing areas. Conflicts \
)Tj
T*
(that are regarded in primarily political terms often have demographic )Tj
T*
(roots. Recognition of these relationships appears crucial to any )Tj
T*
(understanding or prevention of such hostilities. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(General Goals and Requirements for Dealing With Rapid Population Growth \
)Tj
T*
( 23. The central question for world population policy in the year 197\
4, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(is whether mankind is to remain on a track toward an ultimate population\
)Tj
T*
(of 12 to 15 billion -- implying a five to seven-fold increase in almost \
)Tj
T*
(all the underdeveloped world outside of China -- or whether \(despite th\
e )Tj
T*
(momentum of population growth\) it can be switched over to the course of\
)Tj
T*
(earliest feasible population stability -- implying ultimate totals of 8 \
to )Tj
T*
(9 billions and not more than a three or four-fold increase in any major \
)Tj
T*
(region. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 24. What are the stakes? We do not know whether technological )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(developments will make it possible to feed over 8 much less 12 billion )Tj
T*
(people in the 21st century. We cannot be entirely certain that climatic \
)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(8 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
439 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(changes in the coming decade will not create great difficulties in feedi\
ng )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(a growing population, especially people in the LDCs who live under )Tj
T*
(increasingly marginal and more vulnerable conditions. There exists at )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(least the possibility that present developments point toward Malthusian \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(conditions for many regions of the world. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 25. But even if survival for these much larger numbers is possible, \
it )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(will in all likelihood be bare survival, with all efforts going in the )Tj
T*
(good years to provide minimum nutrition and utter dependence in the bad \
)Tj
T*
(years on emergency rescue efforts from the less populated and richer )Tj
T*
(countries of the world. In the shorter run -- between now and the year )Tj
T*
(2000 -- the difference between the two courses can be some perceptible )Tj
T*
(material gain in the crowded poor regions, and some improvement in the )Tj
T*
(relative distribution of intra-country )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(per capita)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( income between rich and )Tj
T*
(poor, as against permanent poverty and the widening of income gaps. A mu\
ch )Tj
T*
(more vigorous effort to slow population growth can also mean a very grea\
t )Tj
T*
(difference between enormous tragedies of malnutrition and starvation as \
)Tj
T*
(against only serious chronic conditions. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Policy Recommendations )Tj
T*
( 26. There is no single approach which will "solve" the population )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(problem. The complex social and economic factors involved call for a )Tj
T*
(comprehensive strategy with both bilateral and multilateral elements. At\
)Tj
T*
(the same time actions and programs must be tailored to specific countrie\
s )Tj
T*
(and groups. Above all, LDCs themselves must play the most important role\
)Tj
T*
(to achieve success. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 27. Coordination among the bilateral donors and multilateral )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(organizations is vital to any effort to moderate population growth. Each\
)Tj
T*
(kind of effort will be needed for worldwide results. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 28. World policy and programs in the population field should )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(incorporate two major objectives: )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
(\(a\) actions to accommodate continued population growth up to 6 )Tj
T*
(billions by the mid-21st century without massive starvation or )Tj
T*
(total frustration of developmental hopes; and )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(\(b\) actions to keep the ultimate level as close as possible to 8 )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(billions rather than permitting it to reach 10 billions, 13 )Tj
T*
(billions, or more. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( 29. While specific goals in this area are difficult to state, our ai\
m )Tj
T*
(should be for the world to achieve a replacement level of fertility, \(a\
)Tj
T*
(two-child family on the average\), by about the year 2000. This will )Tj
T*
(require the present 2 percent growth rate to decline to 1.7 percent with\
in )Tj
T*
(a decade and to 1.1 percent by 2000. Compared to the U.N medium )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(9 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
440 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(projection, this goal would result in 500 million fewer people in 2000 a\
nd )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(about 3 billion fewer in 2050. Attainment of this goal will require )Tj
T*
(greatly intensified population programs. A basis for developing national\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population growth control targets to achieve this world target is )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(contained in the World Population Plan of Action. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 30. The World Population Plan of Action is not self-enforcing and wi\
ll )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(require vigorous efforts by interested countries, U.N. agencies and othe\
r )Tj
T*
(international bodies to make it effective. U.S. leadership is essential.\
)Tj
T*
(The strategy must include the following elements and actions: )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
(\(a\) )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Concentration on key countries.)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( Assistance for population )Tj
T*
(moderation should give primary emphasis to the largest and )Tj
T*
(fastest growing developing countries where there is special U.S. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(political and strategic interest. Those countries are: India, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, Mexico, Indonesia, Brazil, the )Tj
T*
(Philippines, Thailand, Egypt, Turkey, Ethiopia and Colombia. )Tj
T*
(Together, they account for 47 percent of the world's current )Tj
T*
(population increase. \(It should be recognized that at present )Tj
T*
(AID bilateral assistance to some of these countries may not be )Tj
T*
(acceptable.\) Bilateral assistance, to the extent that funds are )Tj
T*
(available, will be given to other countries, considering such )Tj
T*
(factors as population growth, need for external assistance, long-)Tj
T*
(term U.S. interests and willingness to engage in self-help. )Tj
T*
(Multilateral programs must necessarily have a wider coverage and )Tj
T*
(the bilateral programs of other national donors will be shaped )Tj
T*
(to their particular interests. At the same time, the U.S. will )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(look to the multilateral agencies -- especially the U.N. Fund )Tj
T*
(for Population Activities which already has projects in over 80 )Tj
T*
(countries -- to increase population assistance on a broader )Tj
T*
(basis with increased U.S. contributions. This is desirable in )Tj
T*
(terms of U.S. interests and necessary in political terms in the )Tj
T*
(United Nations. But progress nevertheless, must be made in the )Tj
T*
(key 13 and our limited resources should give major emphasis to )Tj
T*
(them. \(b\) )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Integration of population factors and population )Tj
T*
(programs into country development planning.)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( As called for by the )Tj
T*
(world Population Plan of Action, developing countries and those )Tj
T*
(aiding them should specifically take population factors into )Tj
T*
(account in national planning and include population programs in )Tj
T*
(such plans. \(c\) )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Increased assistance for family planning )Tj
T*
(services, information and technology.)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( This is a vital aspect of )Tj
T*
(any world population program. \(1\) Family planning information )Tj
T*
(and materials based on present technology should be made fully )Tj
T*
(available as rapidly as possible to the 85% of the populations )Tj
T*
(in key LDCs not now reached, essentially rural poor who have the )Tj
T*
(highest fertility. \(2\) Fundamental and developmental research )Tj
T*
(should be expanded, aimed at simple, low-cost, effective, safe, )Tj
T*
(long-lasting and acceptable methods of fertility control. )Tj
T*
(Support by all federal agencies for biomedical research in this )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(10 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
441 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 756.2309 Tm
(field should be increased by $60 million annually. \(d\) )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Creating )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(conditions conducive to fertility decline.)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( For its own merits )Tj
T*
(and consistent with the recommendations of the World Population )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Plan of Action, priority should be given in the general aid )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(program to selective development policies in sectors offering )Tj
T*
(the greatest promise of increased motivation for smaller family )Tj
T*
(size. In many cases pilot programs and experimental research )Tj
T*
(will be needed as guidance for later efforts on a larger scale. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(The preferential sectors include: )Tj
/T1_3 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 85.5323 605.7072 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 98.1676 605.7072 Tm
(Providing minimal levels of education, especially for )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(women; )Tj
/T1_3 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 85.5323 575.9916 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 98.1676 575.9916 Tm
(Reducing infant mortality, including through simple low-)Tj
T*
(cost health care networks; )Tj
/T1_3 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 85.5323 546.276 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 98.1676 546.276 Tm
(Expanding wage employment, especially for women; )Tj
/T1_3 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 85.5323 531.4182 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 98.1676 531.4182 Tm
(Developing alternatives to children as a source of old age )Tj
T*
(security; )Tj
/T1_3 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 85.5323 501.7026 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 98.1676 501.7026 Tm
(Increasing income of the poorest, especially in rural )Tj
T*
(areas, including providing privately owned farms; )Tj
/T1_3 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 85.5323 471.987 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 98.1676 471.987 Tm
(Education of new generations on the desirability of smaller )Tj
T*
(families. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
(While AID has information on the relative importance of the new )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(major socio-economic factors that lead to lower birth rates, )Tj
T*
(much more research and experimentation need to be done to )Tj
T*
(determine what cost effective programs and policy will lead to )Tj
T*
(lower birth rates. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(\(e\) )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Food and agricultural assistance is vital for any population )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(sensitive development strategy.)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( The provision of adequate food )Tj
T*
(stocks for a growing population in times of shortage is crucial. )Tj
T*
(Without such a program for the LDCs there is considerable chance )Tj
T*
(that such shortage will lead to conflict and adversely affect )Tj
T*
(population goals and developmental efforts. Specific )Tj
T*
(recommendations are included in Section IV\(c\) of this study. \(f\) )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
T*
(Development of a worldwide political and popular commitment to )Tj
T*
(population stabilization is fundamental to any effective )Tj
T*
(strategy.)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( This requires the support and commitment of key LDC )Tj
T*
(leaders. This will only take place if they clearly see the )Tj
T*
(negative impact of unrestricted population growth and believe it )Tj
T*
(is possible to deal with this question through governmental )Tj
T*
(action. The U.S. should encourage LDC leaders to take the lead )Tj
T*
(in advancing family planning and population stabilization both )Tj
T*
(within multilateral organizations and through bilateral contacts )Tj
T*
(with other LDCs. This will require that the President and the )Tj
T*
(Secretary of State treat the subject of population growth )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(control as a matter of paramount importance and address it )Tj
T*
(specifically in their regular contacts with leaders of other )Tj
T*
(governments, particularly LDCs.)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(11 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
442 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 738.5639 Tm
( 31. The World Population Plan of Action and the resolutions adopted \
by )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(consensus by 137 nations at the August 1974 U.N. World Population )Tj
T*
(Conference, though not ideal, provide an excellent framework for )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(developing a worldwide system of population/family planning programs. We\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(should use them to generate U.N. agency and national leadership for an a\
ll-)Tj
T*
(out effort to lower growth rates. Constructive action by the U.S. will )Tj
T*
(further our objectives. To this end we should: )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
(\(a\) Strongly support the World Population Plan of Action and the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(adoption of its appropriate provisions in national and other )Tj
T*
(programs. \(b\) Urge the adoption by national programs of specific )Tj
T*
(population goals including replacement levels of fertility for )Tj
T*
(DCs and LDCs by 2000. \(c\) After suitable preparation in the U.)Tj
T*
(S., announce a U.S. goal to maintain our present national )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(average fertility no higher than replacement level and attain )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(near stability by 2000. \(d\) Initiate an international )Tj
T*
(cooperative strategy of national research programs on human )Tj
T*
(reproduction and fertility control covering biomedical and socio-)Tj
T*
(economic factors, as proposed by the U.S. Delegation at )Tj
T*
(Bucharest. \(e\) Act on our offer at Bucharest to collaborate with )Tj
T*
(other interested donors and U.N. agencies to aid selected )Tj
T*
(countries to develop low cost preventive health and family )Tj
T*
(planning services. \(f\) Work directly with donor countries and )Tj
T*
(through the U.N. Fund for Population Activities and the OECD/DAC )Tj
T*
(to increase bilateral and multilateral assistance for population )Tj
T*
(programs. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( 32. As measures to increase understanding of population factors by L\
DC )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(leaders and to strengthen population planning in national development )Tj
T*
(plans, we should carry out the recommendations in Part II, Section VI, )Tj
T*
(including: )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
(\(a\) Consideration of population factors and population policies )Tj
T*
(in all Country Assistance Strategy Papers \(CASP\) and Development )Tj
T*
(Assistance Program \(DAP\) multi-year strategy papers. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(\(b\) Prepare projections of population growth individualized for )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(countries with analyses of development of each country and )Tj
T*
(discuss them with national leaders. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(\(c\) Provide for greatly increased training programs for senior )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(officials of LDCs in the elements of demographic economics. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(\(d\) Arrange for familiarization programs at U.N. Headquarters in )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(New York for ministers of governments, senior policy level )Tj
T*
(officials and comparably influential leaders from private life. )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(12 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
443 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 756.2309 Tm
(\(e\) Assure assistance to LDC leaders in integrating population )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(factors in national plans, particularly as they relate to health )Tj
T*
(services, education, agricultural resources and development, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(employment, equitable distribution of income and social )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(stability. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(\(f\) Also assure assistance to LDC leaders in relating population )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(policies and family planning programs to major sectors of )Tj
T*
(development: health, nutrition, agriculture, education, social )Tj
T*
(services, organized labor, women's activities, and community )Tj
T*
(development. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(\(g\) Undertake initiatives to implement the Percy Amendment )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(regarding improvement in the status of women. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(\(h\) Give emphasis in assistance to programs on development of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(rural areas. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
(Beyond these activities which are essentially directed at national )Tj
T*
(interests, we must assure that a broader educational concept is develope\
d )Tj
T*
(to convey an acute understanding to national leaders of the interrelatio\
n )Tj
T*
(of national interests and world population growth. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 33. We must take care that our activities should not give the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(appearance to the LDCs of an industrialized country policy directed )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
T*
(against)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( the LDCs. Caution must be taken that in any approaches in this )Tj
T*
(field we support in the LDCs are ones we can support within this country\
. )Tj
T*
("Third World" leaders should be in the forefront and obtain the credit f\
or )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(successful programs. In this context it is important to demonstrate to L\
DC )Tj
T*
(leaders that such family planning programs have worked and can work with\
in )Tj
T*
(a reasonable period of time. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 34. To help assure others of our intentions we should indicate our )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(emphasis on the right of individuals and couples to determine freely and\
)Tj
T*
(responsibly the number and spacing of their children and to have )Tj
T*
(information, education and means to do so, and our continued interest in\
)Tj
T*
(improving the overall general welfare. We should use the authority )Tj
T*
(provided by the World Population Plan of Action to advance the principle\
s )Tj
T*
(that 1\) responsibility in parenthood includes responsibility to the )Tj
T*
(children and the community and 2\) that nations in exercising their )Tj
T*
(sovereignty to set population policies should take into account the )Tj
T*
(welfare of their neighbors and the world. To strengthen the worldwide )Tj
T*
(approach, family planning programs should be supported by multilateral )Tj
T*
(organizations wherever they can provide the most efficient means. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 35. To support such family planning and related development assistan\
ce )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(efforts there is need to increase public and leadership information in )Tj
T*
(this field. We recommend increased emphasis on mass media, newer )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(13 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
444 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(communications technology and other population education and motivation \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(programs by the UN and USIA. Higher priority should be given to these )Tj
T*
(information programs in this field worldwide. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 36. In order to provide the necessary resources and leadership, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(support by the U.S. public and Congress will be necessary. A significant\
)Tj
T*
(amount of funds will be required for a number of years. High level )Tj
T*
(personal contact by the Secretary of State and other officials on the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(subject at an early date with Congressional counterparts is needed. A )Tj
T*
(program for this purpose should be developed by OES with H and AID. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 37. There is an )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(alternate view)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( which holds that a growing number of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(experts believe that the population situation is already more serious an\
d )Tj
T*
(less amenable to solution through voluntary measures than is generally )Tj
T*
(accepted. It holds that, to prevent even more widespread food shortage a\
nd )Tj
T*
(other demographic catastrophes than are generally anticipated, even )Tj
T*
(stronger measures are required and some fundamental, very difficult mora\
l )Tj
T*
(issues need to be addressed. These include, for example, our own )Tj
T*
(consumption patterns, mandatory programs, tight control of our food )Tj
T*
(resources. In view of the seriousness of these issues, explicit )Tj
T*
(consideration of them should begin in the Executive Branch, the Congress\
)Tj
T*
(and the U.N. soon. \(See the end of Section I for this viewpoint.\) )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 38. Implementing the actions discussed above \(in paragraphs 1-36\),\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(will require a significant expansion in AID funds for population/family \
)Tj
T*
(planning. A number of major actions in the area of creating conditions f\
or )Tj
T*
(fertility decline can be funded from resources available to the sectors \
in )Tj
T*
(question \(e.g., education, agriculture\). Other actions, including fami\
ly )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(planning services, research and experimental activities on factors )Tj
T*
(affecting fertility, come under population funds. We recommend increases\
)Tj
T*
(in AID budget requests to the Congress on the order of $35-50 million )Tj
T*
(annually through FY 1980 \(above the $137.5 million requested for FY 197\
5\). )Tj
T*
(This funding would cover both bilateral programs and contributions to )Tj
T*
(multilateral organizations. However, the level of funds needed in the )Tj
T*
(future could change significantly, depending on such factors as major )Tj
T*
(breakthroughs in fertility control technologies and LDC receptivities to\
)Tj
T*
(population assistance. To help develop, monitor, and evaluate the expand\
ed )Tj
T*
(actions discussed above, AID is likely to need additional direct hire )Tj
T*
(personnel in the population/family planning area. As a corollary to )Tj
T*
(expanded AID funding levels for population, efforts must be made to )Tj
T*
(encourage increased contributions by other donors and recipient countrie\
s )Tj
T*
(to help reduce rapid population growth. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Policy Follow-up and Coordination )Tj
T*
( 39. This world wide population strategy involves very complex and )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(difficult questions. Its implementation will require very careful )Tj
T*
(coordination and specific application in individual circumstances. Furth\
er )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(14 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
445 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(work is greatly needed in examining the mix of our assistance strategy a\
nd )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(its most efficient application. A number of agencies are interested and \
)Tj
T*
(involved. Given this, there appears to be a need for a better and higher\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(level mechanism to refine and develop policy in this field and to )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(coordinate its implementation beyond this NSSM. The following options ar\
e )Tj
T*
(suggested for consideration: \(a\) That the NSC Under Secretaries Commit\
tee )Tj
T*
(be given responsibility for policy and executive review of this subject:\
)Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Pros: )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 603.7616 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 603.7616 Tm
(Because of the major foreign policy implications of the recommended )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population strategy a high level focus on policy is required for the )Tj
T*
(success of such a major effort. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 559.1881 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 559.1881 Tm
(With the very wide agency interests in this topic there is need for )Tj
T*
(an accepted and normal interagency process for effective analysis and )Tj
T*
(disinterested policy development and implementation within the N.S.C. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(system. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 499.7569 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 499.7569 Tm
(Staffing support for implementation of the NSSM-200 follow-on exists )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(within the USC framework including utilization of the Office of )Tj
T*
(Population of the Department of State as well as other. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 455.1835 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 455.1835 Tm
(USC has provided coordination and follow-up in major foreign policy )Tj
T*
(areas involving a number of agencies as is the case in this study. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
(Cons: )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 377.0032 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 377.0032 Tm
(The USC would not be within the normal policy-making framework for )Tj
T*
(development policy as would be in the case with the DCC. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 347.2876 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 347.2876 Tm
(The USC is further removed from the process of budget development and )Tj
T*
(review of the AID Population Assistance program. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
(\(b\) That when its establishment is authorized by the President, the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Development Coordination Committee, headed by the AID Administrator be )Tj
T*
(given overall responsibility:)Tj
ET
1 0 0 RG
0.379 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d
242.854 269.916 m
302.286 269.916 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 242.8543 271.0529 Tm
(\(note 1\))Tj
0 0 0 rg
( )Tj
-17.4 -2.7 Td
(Pros: \(Provided by AID\) )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 205.9615 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 205.9615 Tm
(It is precisely for coordination of this type of development issue )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(involving a variety of U.S. policies toward LDCs that the Congress )Tj
T*
(directed the establishment of the DCC. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 161.3881 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 161.3881 Tm
(The DCC is also the body best able to relate population issues to )Tj
T*
(other development issues, with which they are intimately related. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 131.6725 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 131.6725 Tm
(The DCC has the advantage of stressing technical and financial )Tj
T*
(aspects of U.S. population policies, thereby minimizing political )Tj
T*
(complications frequently inherent in population programs. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 87.0991 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 87.0991 Tm
(It is, in AID's view, the coordinating body best located to take an )Tj
T*
(overview of all the population activities now taking place under )Tj
T*
(bilateral and multilateral auspices. )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(15 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
446 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(Cons: )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 724.5696 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 724.5696 Tm
(While the DCC will doubtless have substantial technical competence, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the entire range of political and other factors bearing on our global )Tj
T*
(population strategy might be more effectively considered by a group )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(having a broader focus than the DCC. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 665.1384 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 665.1384 Tm
(The DCC is not within the N.S.C. system which provides a more direct )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(access to both the President and the principal foreign policy )Tj
T*
(decision-making mechanism. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 620.565 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 620.565 Tm
(The DCC might overly emphasize purely developmental aspects of )Tj
T*
(population and under emphasize other important elements. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
(\(c\) )Tj
/T1_3 1 Tf
(That the NSC/CIEP be asked to lead an Interdepartmental Group for this )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(subject to insure follow-up interagency coordination, and further policy\
)Tj
T*
(development.)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( \(No participating Agency supports this option, therefore it )Tj
T*
(is only included to present a full range of possibilities\). )Tj
/T1_3 1 Tf
(Option \(a\) is )Tj
T*
(supported by State, Treasury, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Defense \(ISA and JCS\), Agriculture, HEW, )Tj
T*
(Commerce NSC and CIA.)Tj
ET
1 0 0 RG
0.379 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d
183.423 483.762 m
242.854 483.762 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_3 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 183.4231 484.8991 Tm
(\(note 2\))Tj
0 0 0 rg
( )Tj
-12.6 -2.7 Td
(Option \(b\) is supported by AID.)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Under any of the above options, there should be an annual review of our \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population policy to examine progress, insure our programs are in keepin\
g )Tj
T*
(with the latest information in this field, identify possible deficiencie\
s, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and recommend additional action at the appropriate level.)Tj
ET
450.864 374.098 m
510.295 374.098 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 450.8636 375.2344 Tm
(\(note 3\))Tj
0 0 0 rg
( )Tj
-34.2 -2.6 Td
( )Tj
0 -1 TD
( )Tj
0 -1 TD
( )Tj
0 -1 TD
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
0 -1.1 TD
(* NOTE: AID expects the DCC will have the following composition: The )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Administrator of AID as Chairman; the Under Secretary of State for )Tj
T*
(Economic Affairs; the Under Secretary of Treasury for Monetary Affairs; \
)Tj
T*
(the Under Secretaries of Commerce, Agriculture and Labor; an Associate )Tj
T*
(Director of OMB; the Executive Director of CIEP, STR; a representative o\
f )Tj
T*
(the NSC; the Presidents of the EX-IM Bank and OPIC; and any other agency\
)Tj
T*
(when items of interest to them are under discussion.\) )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(** Department of Commerce supports the option of placing the population \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(policy formulation mechanism under the auspices of the USC but believes \
)Tj
T*
(that any detailed economic questions resulting from proposed population \
)Tj
T*
(policies be explored through existing domestic and international economi\
c )Tj
T*
(policy channels. )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(16 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
447 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(*** AID believes these reviews undertaken only periodically might look a\
t )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(selected areas or at the entire range of population policy depending on \
)Tj
T*
(problems and needs which arise. )Tj
0 -1.1 TD
( )Tj
0 -1 TD
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
0 -1.1 TD
(CHAPTER I - WORLD DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Introduction )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The present world population growth is unique. Rates of increase ar\
e )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(much higher than in earlier centuries, they are more widespread, and hav\
e )Tj
T*
(a greater effect on economic life, social justice, and -- quite likely -\
- )Tj
T*
(on public order and political stability. The significance of population \
)Tj
T*
(growth is enhanced because it comes at a time when the absolute size and\
)Tj
T*
(rate of increase of the global economy, need for agricultural land, dema\
nd )Tj
T*
(for and consumption of resources including water, production of wastes a\
nd )Tj
T*
(pollution have also escalated to historically unique levels. Factors tha\
t )Tj
T*
(only a short time ago were considered separately now have interlocking )Tj
T*
(relationships, inter-dependence in a literal sense. The changes are not \
)Tj
T*
(only quantitatively greater than in the past but qualitatively different\
. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(The growing burden is not only on resources but on administrative and )Tj
T*
(social institutions as well. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Population growth is, of course, only one of the important factors \
in )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(this new, highly integrated tangle of relationships. However, it differs\
)Tj
T*
(from the others because it is a determinant of the demand sector while )Tj
T*
(others relate to output and supply. \(Population growth also contributes\
to )Tj
T*
(supply through provision of manpower; in most developing countries, )Tj
T*
(however, the problem is not a lack of but a surfeit of hands.\) It is, )Tj
T*
(therefore, most pervasive, affecting what needs to be done in regard to \
)Tj
T*
(other factors. Whether other problems can be solved depends, in varying \
)Tj
T*
(degrees, on the extent to which rapid population growth and other )Tj
T*
(population variables can be brought under control. Highlights of Current\
)Tj
T*
(Demographic Trends Since 1950, world population has been undergoing\
)Tj
T*
(unprecedented growth. This growth has four prominent features: )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 1. It is unique, far more rapid than ever in history. )Tj
T*
( 2. It is much more rapid in less developed than in developed region\
s. )Tj
T*
( 3. Concentration in towns and cities is increasing much more rapidl\
y )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(17 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
448 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(than overall population growth and is far more rapid in LDCs than in )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(developed countries. 4. It has a tremendous built-in momentum that \
)Tj
T*
(will inexorably double populations of most less developed countries by )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(2000 and will treble or quadruple their populations before leveling off \
-- )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(unless far greater efforts at fertility control are made than are being \
)Tj
T*
(made. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Therefore, if a country wants to influence its total numbers throug\
h )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population policy, it must act in the immediate future in order to make \
a )Tj
T*
(substantial difference in the long run. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( For most of man's history, world population grew very slowly. At th\
e )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(rate of growth estimated for the first 18 centuries A.D., it required mo\
re )Tj
T*
(than 1,000 years for world population to double in size. With the )Tj
T*
(beginnings of the industrial revolution and of modern medicine and )Tj
T*
(sanitation over two hundred years ago, population growth rates began to \
)Tj
T*
(accelerate. At the current growth rate \(1.9 percent\) world population \
will )Tj
T*
(double in 37 years. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 468.0957 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 468.0957 Tm
(By about 1830, world population reached 1 billion. The second billion )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(was added in about 100 years by 1930. The third billion in 30 years )Tj
T*
(by 1960. The fourth will be reached in 1975. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 406.7188 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 406.7188 Tm
(Between 1750-1800 less than 4 million were being added, on the )Tj
T*
(average, to the earth's population each year. Between 1850-1900, it )Tj
T*
(was close to 8 million. By 1950 it had grown to 40 million. By 1975 )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(it will be about 80 million. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( In the developed countries of Europe, growth rates in the last )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(century rarely exceeded 1.0-1.2 percent per year, almost never 1.5 )Tj
T*
(percent. Death rates were much higher than in most LDCs today. In North \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(America where growth rates were higher, immigration made a significant )Tj
T*
(contribution. In nearly every country of Europe, growth rates are now )Tj
T*
(below 1 percent, in many below 0.5 percent. The natural growth rate )Tj
T*
(\(births minus deaths\) in the United States is less than 0.6 percent. )Tj
T*
(Including immigration \(the world's highest\) it is less than 0.7 percen\
t. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In less developed countries growth rates average about 2.4 percent.\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(For the People's Republic of China, with a massive, enforced birth contr\
ol )Tj
T*
(program, the growth rate is estimated at under 2 percent. India's is )Tj
T*
(variously estimated from 2.2 percent, Brazil at 2.8 percent, Mexico at 3\
.4 )Tj
T*
(percent, and Latin America at about 2.9 percent. African countries, with\
)Tj
T*
(high birth as well as high death rates, average 2.6 percent; this growth\
)Tj
T*
(rate will increase as death rates go down. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The world's population is )Tj
/T1_3 1 Tf
(now)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( about 3.9 billion; 1.1 billion in the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(developed countries \(30 percent\) and 2.8 billion in the less developed\
)Tj
T*
(countries \(70 percent\). )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(18 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
449 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 745.639 Tm
( In 1950, only 28 percent of the world's population or 692 million, \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(lived in urban localities. Between 1950 and 1970, urban population )Tj
T*
(expanded at a rate twice as rapid as the rate of growth of total )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population. In 1970, urban population increased to 36 percent of world )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(total and numbered 1.3 billion. By 2000, according to the UN's medium )Tj
T*
(variant projection, 3.2 billion \(about half of the total\) of world )Tj
T*
(inhabitants will live in cities and towns. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In developed countries, the urban population varies from 45 to 85 )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(percent; in LDCs, it varies from close to zero in some African states to\
)Tj
T*
(nearly 100 percent in Hong Kong and Singapore. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In LDCs, urban population is projected to )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(more than triple)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( in the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(remainder of this century, from 622 million in 1970 to 2,087 in 2000. It\
s )Tj
T*
(proportion in total LDC population will thus increase from 25 percent in\
)Tj
T*
(1970 to 41 percent in 2000. This implies that by the end of this century\
)Tj
T*
(LDCs will reach half the level of urbanization projected for DCs \(82 )Tj
T*
(percent\) \(See )Tj
ET
1 0 0 RG
0.379 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d
131.421 488.028 m
183.423 488.028 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 131.4208 489.165 Tm
(Table I)Tj
0 0 0 rg
(\). )Tj
-8.4 -2.7 Td
( The enormous built-in )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(momentum)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( of population growth in the less )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(developed countries \(and to a degree in the developed countries\) is, i\
f )Tj
T*
(possible, even more important and ominous than current population size a\
nd )Tj
T*
(rates of growth. Unlike a conventional explosion, population growth )Tj
T*
(provides a continuing chain reaction. This momentum springs from \(1\) h\
igh )Tj
T*
(fertility levels of LDC populations and \(2\) the very high percentage o\
f )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(maturing young people in populations. The typical developed country, )Tj
T*
(Sweden for example, may have 25% of the population under 15 years of age\
. )Tj
T*
(The typical developing country has 41% to 45% or its population under 15\
. )Tj
T*
(This means that a tremendous number of future parents, compared to )Tj
T*
(existing parents, are already born. Even if they have fewer children per\
)Tj
T*
(family than their parents, the increase in population will be very great\
. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Three projections \()Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(not)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( predictions\), based on three different )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(assumptions concerning fertility, will illustrate the generative effect \
of )Tj
T*
(this building momentum. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( a. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Present fertility continued)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(: If present fertility rates were to )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
0 -1.2 TD
(remain constant)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(, the 1974 population 3.9 billion would increase to 7.8 )Tj
T*
(billion by the hear 2000 and rise to a )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(theoretical)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( 103 billion by 2075. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( b. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(U.N. "Medium Variant")Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(: If present birth rates in the developing )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(countries, averaging about 38/1000 were further reduced to 29/1000 by )Tj
T*
(2000, the world's population in 2000 would be 6.4 billion, with over 100\
)Tj
T*
(million being added each year. At the time stability \(non-growth\) is )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(reached in about 2100, world population would exceed 12.0 billion. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( c. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Replacement Fertility by 2000)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(: If replacement levels of fertility )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(19 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
450 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(were reached by 2000, the world's population in 2000 would be 5.9 billio\
n )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and at the time of stability, about 2075, would be 8.4 billion. )Tj
T*
(\("Replacement level" of fertility is )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(not)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( zero population growth. It is the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(level of fertility when couples are limiting their families to an averag\
e )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(of about two children. For most countries, where there are high )Tj
T*
(percentages of young people, even the attainment of replacement levels o\
f )Tj
T*
(fertility means that the population will continue to grow for additional\
)Tj
T*
(50-60 years to much higher numbers before leveling off.\) )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( It is reasonable to assume that projection \(a\) is unreal since )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(significant efforts are already being made to slow population growth and\
)Tj
T*
(because even the most extreme pro-natalists do not argue that the earth \
)Tj
T*
(could or should support 103 billion people. Famine, pestilence, war, or \
)Tj
T*
(birth control will stop population growth far short of this figure. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(The U.N. medium variant \(projection \(b\) has been described in a )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(publication of the U.N. Population Division as "a synthesis of the resul\
ts )Tj
T*
(of efforts by demographers of the various countries and the U.N. )Tj
T*
(Secretariat to formulate realistic assumptions with regard to future )Tj
T*
(trends, in view of information about present conditions and past )Tj
T*
(experiences." Although by no means infallible, these projections provide\
)Tj
T*
(plausible working numbers and are used by U.N. agencies \(e.g., FAO, ILO\
\) )Tj
T*
(for their specialized analyses. One major shortcoming of most projection\
s, )Tj
T*
(however, is that "information about present conditions" quoted above is \
)Tj
T*
(not quite up-to-date. Even in the United States, refined fertility and )Tj
T*
(mortality rates become available only after a delay of several years. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Thus, it is possible that the rate of world population growth has )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(actually fallen below \(or for that matter increased from\) that assumed\
)Tj
T*
(under the U.N. medium variant. A number of less developed countries with\
)Tj
T*
(rising living levels \(particularly with increasing equality of income\)\
and )Tj
T*
(efficient family planning programs have experienced marked declines in )Tj
T*
(fertility. Where access to family planning services has been restricted,\
)Tj
T*
(fertility levels can be expected to show little change. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( It is certain that fertility rates have already fallen significantl\
y )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(in Hong King, Singapore, Taiwan, Fiji, South Korea, Barbados, Chile, Cos\
ta )Tj
T*
(Rica, Trinidad and Tobago, and Mauritius \(See )Tj
ET
1 0 0 RG
0.379 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d
369.146 197.573 m
421.148 197.573 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 369.1457 198.7095 Tm
(Table 1)Tj
0 0 0 rg
(\). Moderate declines )Tj
-27.6 -1.343 Td
(have also been registered in West Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and Egypt. Steady\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(increases in the number of acceptors at family planning facilities )Tj
T*
(indicate a likelihood of some fertility reduction in Thailand, Indonesia\
, )Tj
T*
(the Philippines, Colombia, and other countries which have family plannin\
g )Tj
T*
(programs. On the other hand, there is little concrete evidence of )Tj
T*
(significant fertility reduction in the populous countries of India, )Tj
T*
(Bangladesh, Pakistan, etc.)Tj
ET
220.568 91.799 m
227.997 91.799 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 220.5676 92.9361 Tm
(1)Tj
0 0 0 rg
( )Tj
-15.6 -2.7 Td
( Projection \(c\) is attainable if countries recognize the gravity o\
f )Tj
T*
(their population situation and make a serious effort to do something abo\
ut )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(20 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
451 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(it. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The differences in the size of total population projected under the\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(three variants become substantial in a relatively short time. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(By 1985)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(, the medium variant projects some 342 million fewer people )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(than the constant fertility variant and the replacement variant is 75 )Tj
T*
(million lower than the medium variant. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(By the year 2000)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( the difference between constant and medium fertility )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(variants rises to 1.4 billion and between the medium and replacement )Tj
T*
(variants, close to 500 million. By the year 2000, the span between the )Tj
T*
(high and low series -- some 1.9 billion -- would amount to almost half t\
he )Tj
T*
(present world population. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Most importantly, perhaps, )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(by 2075)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( the constant variant would have )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(swamped the earth and the difference between the medium and replacement \
)Tj
T*
(variants would amount to 3.7 billion. \()Tj
ET
1 0 0 RG
0.379 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d
317.143 494.729 m
369.146 494.729 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 317.1434 495.8656 Tm
(Table 2)Tj
0 0 0 rg
(.\) The significance of the )Tj
-23.4 -1.343 Td
(alternative variants is that they reflect the difference between a )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(manageable situation and potential chaos with widespread starvation, )Tj
T*
(disease, and disintegration for many countries. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Furthermore, after replacement level fertility is reached, family )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(size need not remain at an average of two children per family. Once this\
)Tj
T*
(level is attained, it is possible that fertility will continue to declin\
e )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(below replacement level. This would hasten the time when a stationary )Tj
T*
(population is reached and would increase the difference between the )Tj
T*
(projection variants. The great momentum of population growth can be seen\
)Tj
T*
(even more clearly in the case of a single country -- for example, Mexico\
. )Tj
T*
(Its 1970 population was 50 million. If its 1965-1970 fertility were to )Tj
T*
(continue, Mexico's population in 2070 would )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(theoretically)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( number 2.2 )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(billion. If its present average of 6.1 children per family could be )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(reduced to an average of about 2 \(replacement level fertility\) by 1980\
-85, )Tj
T*
(its population would continue to grow for about sixty years to 110 )Tj
T*
(million. If the two-child average could be reached by 1990-95, the )Tj
T*
(population would stabilize in sixty more years at about 22 percent highe\
r )Tj
T*
(-- 134 million. If the two-child average cannot be reached for 30 years \
)Tj
T*
(\(by 2000-05\), the population at stabilization would grow by an additio\
nal )Tj
T*
(24 percent to 167 million. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Similar illustrations for other countries are given below. )Tj
T*
( As )Tj
ET
86.847 115.678 m
138.85 115.678 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 86.8474 116.8147 Tm
(Table 3)Tj
0 0 0 rg
(. indicates, alternative rates of fertility decline would )Tj
-4.8 -1.343 Td
(have significant impact on the size of a country's population by 2000. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(They would make enormous differences in the sizes of the stabilized )Tj
T*
(populations, attained some 60 to 70 years after replacement level )Tj
T*
(fertility is reached. Therefore, it is of the utmost urgency that )Tj
T*
(governments now recognize the facts and implications of population growt\
h )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(21 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
452 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(determining the ultimate population sizes that make sense for their )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(countries and start vigorous programs at once to achieve their desired )Tj
T*
(goals. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(FUTURE GROWTH IN MAJOR REGIONS AND COUNTRIES )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Throughout the projected period 1970 to 2000, less developed region\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(will grow more rapidly than developed regions. The rate of growth in LDC\
s )Tj
T*
(will primarily depend upon the rapidity with which family planning )Tj
T*
(practices are adopted. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Differences in the growth rates of DCs and LDCs will further )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(aggravate the striking demographic imbalances between developed and less\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(developed countries. Under the U.N. medium projection variant, by the ye\
ar )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(2000 the population of less developed countries would double, rising fro\
m )Tj
T*
(2.5 billion in 1970 to 5.0 billion \()Tj
ET
1 0 0 RG
0.379 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d
294.857 526.39 m
346.859 526.39 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 294.8566 527.5269 Tm
(Table 4)Tj
0 0 0 rg
(\). In contrast, the overall )Tj
-21.6 -1.343 Td
(growth of the population of the developed world during the same period )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(would amount to about 26 percent, increasing from 1.08 to 1.37 billion. \
)Tj
T*
(Thus, by the year 2000 almost 80 percent of world population would resid\
e )Tj
T*
(in regions now considered less developed and over 90 percent of the annu\
al )Tj
T*
(increment to world population would occur there. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The paucity of reliable information on all Asian communist countrie\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and the highly optimistic assumptions concerning China's fertility trend\
s )Tj
T*
(implicit in U.N. medium projections)Tj
ET
287.428 388.956 m
294.857 388.956 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 287.4277 390.0922 Tm
(2)Tj
0 0 0 rg
( argue for disaggregating the less )Tj
-21 -1.343 Td
(developed countries into centrally planned economies and countries with \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(market economies. Such disaggregation reflects more accurately the burde\
n )Tj
T*
(of rapidly growing populations in most LDCs. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( As )Tj
ET
86.847 310.952 m
138.85 310.952 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 86.8474 312.0887 Tm
(Table 4)Tj
0 0 0 rg
(. shows, the population of countries with centrally planned )Tj
-4.8 -1.343 Td
(economies, comprising about 1/3 of the 1970 LDC total, is projected to )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(grow between 1970 and 2000 at a rate well below the LDC average of 2.3 )Tj
T*
(percent. Over the entire thirty-year period, their growth rate averages \
)Tj
T*
(1.4 percent, in comparison with 2.7 percent for other LDCs. Between )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(1970 )Tj
T*
(and 1985)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(, the annual rate of growth in Asian communist LDCs is expected to )Tj
T*
(average 1.6 percent and subsequently to decline to an average of 1.2 )Tj
T*
(percent between )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(1985 and 2000)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. The growth rate of LDCs with market )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(economies, on the other hand, remains practically the same, at 2.7 and 2\
.6 )Tj
T*
(percent, respectively. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Thus, barring both large-scale birth control )Tj
T*
(efforts \(greater than implied by the medium variant\) or economic or )Tj
T*
(political upheavals, the next twenty-five years offer non-communist LDCs\
)Tj
T*
(little respite from the burdens of rapidly increasing humanity)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. Of course, )Tj
T*
(some LDCs will be able to accommodate this increase with less difficulty\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(than others. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Moreover, )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(short of Draconian measures there is no possibility that )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(any LDC can stabilize its population at less than double its present siz\
e. )Tj
T*
(For many, stabilization will not be short of three times their present )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(22 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
453 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(size)Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(NATO and Eastern Europe)Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(. In the west, only France and Greece have a )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(policy of increasing population growth -- which the people are )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(successfully disregarding. \(In a recent and significant change from )Tj
T*
(traditional positions, however, the French Assembly overwhelmingly )Tj
T*
(endorsed a law not only authorizing general availability of contraceptiv\
es )Tj
T*
(but also providing that their cost be borne by the social security )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(system.\) Other western NATO members have no policies.)Tj
ET
1 0 0 RG
0.379 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d
421.148 634.286 m
428.577 634.286 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_2 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 421.148 635.4228 Tm
(3)Tj
0 0 0 rg
( Most provide some )Tj
-31.8 -1.343 Td
(or substantial family planning services. All appear headed toward lower \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(growth rates. In two NATO member countries \(West Germany and Luxembourg\
\), )Tj
T*
(annual numbers of deaths already exceed births, yielding a negative )Tj
T*
(natural growth rate. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Czechoslovakia have active policies\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(to increase their population growth rates -- despite the reluctance of )Tj
T*
(their people to have larger families. Within the USSR, fertility rates i\
n )Tj
T*
(RSFSR and the republics of Ukraine, Latvia, and Estonia are below )Tj
T*
(replacement level. This situation has prevailed at least since 1969-1970\
)Tj
T*
(and, if continued, will eventually lead to negative population growth in\
)Tj
T*
(these republics. In the United States, average fertility also fell below\
)Tj
T*
(replacement level in the past two years \(1972 and 1973\). There is a )Tj
T*
(striking difference, however, in the attitudes toward this demographic )Tj
T*
(development in the two countries. While in the United States the )Tj
T*
(possibility of a stabilized \(non-growing\) population is generally view\
ed )Tj
T*
(with favor, in the USSR there is perceptible concern over the low )Tj
T*
(fertility of Slavs and Balts \(mostly by Slavs and Balts\). The Soviet )Tj
T*
(government, by all indications, is studying the feasibility of increasin\
g )Tj
T*
(their sagging birth rates. The entire matter of fertility-bolstering )Tj
T*
(policies is circumscribed by the relatively high costs of increasing )Tj
T*
(fertility \(mainly through increased outlays for consumption goods and )Tj
T*
(services\) and the need to avoid the appearance of ethnic discrimination\
)Tj
T*
(between rapidly and slowly growing nationalities. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( U.N. medium projections to the year 2000 show no significant change\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(in the relative demographic position of the western alliance countries a\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(against eastern Europe and the USSR. The population of the Warsaw Pact )Tj
T*
(countries will remain at 65 percent of the populations of NATO member )Tj
T*
(states. If Turkey is excluded, the Warsaw Pact proportion rises somewhat\
)Tj
T*
(from 70 percent in 1970 to 73 percent by 2000. This change is not of an \
)Tj
T*
(order of magnitude that in itself will have important implications for )Tj
T*
(east-west power relations. \(Future growth of manpower in NATO and Warsa\
w )Tj
T*
(Pact nations has not been examined in this Memorandum.\) )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Of greater potential political and strategic significance are )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(prospective changes in the populations of less developed regions both )Tj
T*
(among themselves and in relation to developed countries. )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(23 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
454 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Africa)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. Assessment of future demographic trends in Africa is severely )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(impeded by lack of reliable base data on the size, composition, fertilit\
y )Tj
T*
(and mortality, and migration of much of the continent's population. With\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(this important limitation in mind, the population of Africa is projected\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(to increase from 352 million in 1970 to 834 million in 2000, an increase\
)Tj
T*
(of almost 2.5 times. In most African countries, population growth rates \
)Tj
T*
(are likely to increase appreciably before they begin to decline. Rapid )Tj
T*
(population expansion may be particularly burdensome to the "least )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(developed" among Africa's LDCs including -- according to the U.N. )Tj
T*
(classification -- Ethiopia, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Upper Volta, Mali, \
)Tj
T*
(Malawi, Niger, Burundi, Guinea, Chad, Rwanda, Somalia, Dahomey, Lesotho,\
)Tj
T*
(and Botswana. As a group, they numbered 104 million in 1970 and are )Tj
T*
(projected to grow at an average rate of 3.0 percent a year, to some 250 \
)Tj
T*
(million in 2000. This rate of growth is based on the assumption of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(significant reductions in mortality. It is questionable, however, whethe\
r )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(economic and social conditions in the foreseeable future will permit )Tj
T*
(reductions in mortality required to produce a 3 percent growth rate. )Tj
T*
(Consequently, the population of the "least developed" of Africa's LDCs m\
ay )Tj
T*
(fall short of the 250 million figure in 2000. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( African countries endowed with rich oil and other natural resources\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(may be in a better economic position to cope with population expansion. \
)Tj
T*
(Nigeria falls into this category. Already the most populous country on t\
he )Tj
T*
(continent, with an estimated 55 million people in 1970 \(see footnote to\
)Tj
ET
1 0 0 RG
0.379 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d
27.416 396.561 m
79.419 396.561 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 397.698 Tm
(Table 4)Tj
0 0 0 rg
(\), Nigeria's population by the end of this century is projected to )Tj
0 -1.343 TD
(number 135 million. This suggests a growing political and strategic role\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(for Nigeria, at least in Africa south of the Sahara. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In North Africa, Egypt's population of 33 million in 1970 is )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(projected to double by 2000. The large and increasing size of Egypt's )Tj
T*
(population is, and will remain for many years, an important consideratio\
n )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(in the formulation of many foreign and domestic policies not only of Egy\
pt )Tj
T*
(but also of neighboring countries. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Latin America)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. Rapid population growth is projected for tropical )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(South American which includes Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Venezuela, Ecuador\
)Tj
T*
(and Bolivia. Brazil, with a current population of over 100 million, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(clearly dominates the continent demographically; by the end of this )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(century, its population is projected to reach the 1974 U.S. level of abo\
ut )Tj
T*
(212 million people. Rapid economic growth prospects -- if they are not )Tj
T*
(diminished by demographic overgrowth -- portend a growing power status f\
or )Tj
T*
(Brazil in Latin America and on the world scene over the next 25 years. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The Caribbean which includes a number of countries with promising )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(family planning programs \(Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Cuba, Barbados \
and )Tj
T*
(also Puerto Rico\) is projected to grow at 2.2 percent a year between 19\
70 )Tj
T*
(and 2000, a rate below the Latin American average of 2.8 percent. )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(24 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
455 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
( Perhaps the most significant population trend from the viewpoint of\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the United States is the prospect that Mexico's population will increase\
)Tj
T*
(from 50 million in 1970 to over 130 million by the year 2000. Even under\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(most optimistic conditions, in which the country's average fertility fal\
ls )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(to replacement level by 2000, Mexico's population is likely to exceed 10\
0 )Tj
T*
(million by the end of this century. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(South Asia)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. Somewhat slower rates are expected for Eastern and Middle )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(South Asia whose combined population of 1.03 billion in 1970 is projecte\
d )Tj
T*
(to more than double by 2000 to 2.20 billion. In the face of continued )Tj
T*
(rapid population growth \(2.5 percent\), the prospects for the populous \
)Tj
T*
(Indian subregion, which already faces staggering economic problems, are \
)Tj
T*
(particularly bleak. South and Southeast Asia's population will )Tj
T*
(substantially increase relative to mainland China; it appears doubtful, \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(however, that this will do much to enhance their relative power position\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and political influence in Asia. On the contrary, preoccupation with the\
)Tj
T*
(growing internal economic and social problems resulting from huge )Tj
T*
(population increases may progressively reduce the ability of the region,\
)Tj
T*
(especially India, to play an effective regional and world power role. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Western South Asia, demographically dominated by Turkey and seven o\
il-)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(rich states \(including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait\) is projected to\
be )Tj
T*
(one of the fastest growing LDC regions, with an annual average growth ra\
te )Tj
T*
(of 2.9 percent between 1970 and 2000. Part of this growth will be due to\
)Tj
T*
(immigration, as for example, into Kuwait. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The relatively low growth rate of 1.8 percent projected for East )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Asian LDCs with market economics reflects highly successful family )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(planning programs in Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(The People's Republic of China \(PRC\))Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. The People's Republic of China )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(has by far the world's largest population and, potentially, severe )Tj
T*
(problems of population pressure, given its low standard of living and )Tj
T*
(quite intensive utilization of available farm land resources. Its last )Tj
T*
(census in 1953 recorded a population of 583 million, and PRC officials )Tj
T*
(have cited a figure as high as 830 million for 1970. The Commerce )Tj
T*
(Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis projects a slightly higher )Tj
T*
(population, reaching 920 million by 1974. The present population growth \
)Tj
T*
(rate is about two percent. Conclusion Rapid population growth \
in )Tj
T*
(less developed countries has been mounting in a social milieu of poverty\
, )Tj
T*
(unemployment and underemployment, low educational attainment, widespread\
)Tj
T*
(malnutrition, and increasing costs of food production. These countries )Tj
T*
(have accumulated a formidable "backlog" of unfinished tasks. They includ\
e )Tj
T*
(economic assimilation of some 40 percent of their people who are pressin\
g )Tj
T*
(at, but largely remain outside the periphery of the developing economy; \
)Tj
T*
(the amelioration of generally low levels of living; and in addition, )Tj
T*
(accommodation of annually larger increments to the population. The )Tj
T*
(accomplishment of these tasks could be intolerably slow if the average )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(25 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
456 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(annual growth rate in the remainder of this century does not slow down t\
o )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(well below the 2.7 percent projected, under the medium variant, for LDCs\
)Tj
T*
(with market economics. How rapid population growth impedes social and )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(economic progress is discussed in subsequent chapters. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(CHAPTER II. POPULATION AND WORLD FOOD SUPPLIES )Tj
T*
( Rapid population growth and lagging food production in developing )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(countries, together with the sharp deterioration in the global food )Tj
T*
(situation in 1972 and 1973, have raised serious concerns about the abili\
ty )Tj
T*
(of the world to feed itself adequately over the next quarter century and\
)Tj
T*
(beyond. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( As a result of population growth, and to some extent also of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(increasing affluence, world food demand has been growing at unprecedente\
d )Tj
T*
(rates. In 1900, the annual increase in world demand for cereals was abou\
t )Tj
T*
(4 million tons. By 1950, it had risen to about 12 million tons per year.\
)Tj
T*
(By 1970, the )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(annual increase)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( in demand was 30 million tons \(on a base of )Tj
T*
(over 1,200 million tons\). This is roughly equivalent to the annual whea\
t )Tj
T*
(crop of Canada, Australia, and Argentina combined. This )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(annual increase)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( in )Tj
T*
(food demand is made up of a 2% annual increase in population and a 0.5% \
)Tj
T*
(increased demand per capita. Part of the rising per capita demand reflec\
ts )Tj
T*
(improvement in diets of some of the peoples of the developing countries.\
)Tj
T*
(In the less developed countries about 400 pounds of grain is available p\
er )Tj
T*
(person per year and is mostly eaten as cereal. The average North America\
n, )Tj
T*
(however, uses nearly a ton of grain a year, only 200 pounds directly and\
)Tj
T*
(the rest in the form of meat, milk, and eggs for which several pounds of\
)Tj
T*
(cereal are required to produce one pound of the animal product \(e.g., f\
ive )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(pounds of grain to produce one pound of beef\). )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( During the past two decades, LDCs have been able to keep food )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(production ahead of population, notwithstanding the unprecedentedly high\
)Tj
T*
(rates of population growth. The basic figures are summarized in the )Tj
T*
(following table: [calculated from data in USDA, )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(The World Agricultural )Tj
T*
(Situation,)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( March 1974]: )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( INDICES OF WORLD POPULATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( \(excluding Peoples Republic of China\))Tj
T*
( 1954=100)Tj
T*
( +--------------------+--------------------+----------------------\
--+)Tj
T*
( | WORLD | DEVELOPED COUNTRIES|LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRI\
ES|)Tj
T*
( | Food | Food | Food \
|)Tj
T*
( | production | production | production \
|)Tj
T*
( | | | \
|)Tj
T*
( | Popu- Per | Popu- Per | Popu- Per \
|)Tj
T*
( |lation Total Capita|lation Total Capita|lation Total Capita \
|)Tj
T*
(+------+--------------------+--------------------+----------------------\
--+)Tj
T*
(| 1954 | 100 100 100 | 100 100 100 | 100 100 100 \
|)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(26 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
457 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(| 1973 | 144 170 119 | 124 170 138 | 159 171 107 \
|)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(| | \
|)Tj
T*
(| Compound Annual Increase \(%\): \
|)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(| | 1.9 2.8 0.9 | 1.1 2.8 1.7 | 2.5 2.9 0.4 \
|)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(+------+--------------------+--------------------+----------------------\
--+)Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( It will be noted that the relative gain in LDC )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(total)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( food production )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(was just as great as for advanced countries, but was far less on a )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(per)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( )Tj
T*
(capita basis because of the sharp difference in population growth rates.\
)Tj
T*
(Moreover, within the LDC group were 24 countries \(including Indonesia, \
)Tj
T*
(Nigeria, the Philippines, Zaire, Algeria, Guyana, Iraq, and Chile\) in )Tj
T*
(which the rate of increase of population growth exceeded the rate of )Tj
T*
(increase in food production; and a much more populous group \(including \
)Tj
T*
(India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh\) in which the rate of increase in )Tj
T*
(production barely exceeded population growth but did not keep up with th\
e )Tj
T*
(increase in domestic demand. [World Food Conference, Preliminary )Tj
T*
(Assessment, 8 May 1974; U.N. Document E/CONF. 65/ PREP/6, p. 33.] )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( General requirements have been projected for the years 1985 and 200\
0, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(based on the UN Medium Variant population estimates and allowing for a )Tj
T*
(very small improvement in diets in the LDCs. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( A recent projection made by the Department of Agriculture indicates\
a )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(potential productive capacity more than adequate to meet world cereal )Tj
T*
(requirements \(the staple food of the world\) of a population of 6.4 bil\
lion )Tj
T*
(in the year 2000 \(medium fertility variant\) at roughly current relativ\
e )Tj
T*
(prices. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( This overall picture offers little cause for complacency when broke\
n )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(down by geographic regions. To support only a very modest improvement in\
)Tj
T*
(current cereal consumption levels \(from 177 kilograms per capita in 197\
0 )Tj
T*
(to 200-206 kilograms in 2000\) the projections show an alarming increase\
in )Tj
T*
(LDC dependency on imports. Such imports are projected to rise from 21.4 \
)Tj
T*
(million tons in 1970 to 102-122 million tons by the end of the century. \
)Tj
T*
(Cereal imports would increase to 13-15 percent of total developing count\
ry )Tj
T*
(consumption as against 8 percent in 1970. As a group, the advanced )Tj
T*
(countries cannot only meet their own needs but will also generate a )Tj
T*
(substantial surplus. For the LDCs, analyses of food production capacity \
)Tj
T*
(foresee the physical possibility of meeting their needs, )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(provided)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( that \(a\) )Tj
T*
(weather conditions are normal, \(b\) yields per unit of area continue to\
)Tj
T*
(improve at the rates of the last decade, bringing the average by 1985 )Tj
T*
(close to present yields in the advanced countries, and \(c\) a substanti\
ally )Tj
T*
(larger annual transfer of grains can be arranged from the surplus )Tj
T*
(countries \(mainly North America\), either through commercial sales or )Tj
T*
(through continuous and growing food aid. The estimates of production )Tj
T*
(capacity do not rely on major new technical breakthroughs in food )Tj
T*
(production methods, but they do require the availability and application\
)Tj
T*
(of greatly increased quantities of fertilizers, pesticides, irrigation )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(27 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
458 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(water, and other inputs to modernized agriculture, together with continu\
ed )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(technological advances at past rates and the institutional and )Tj
T*
(administrative reforms \(including vastly expanded research and extensio\
n )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(services\) essential to the successful application of these inputs. They\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(also assume normal weather conditions. Substantial political will is )Tj
T*
(required in the LDCs to give the necessary priority to food production. \
)Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( There is great uncertainty whether the conditions for achieving foo\
d )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(balance in the LDCs can in fact be realized. Climatic changes are poorly\
)Tj
T*
(understood, but a persistent atmospheric cooling trend since 1940 has be\
en )Tj
T*
(established. One respectable body of scientific opinion believes that th\
is )Tj
T*
(portends a period of much wider annual frosts, and possibly a long-term \
)Tj
T*
(lowering of rainfall in the monsoon areas of Asia and Africa. Nitrogen )Tj
T*
(fertilizer will be in world short supply into the late 1970s, at least; \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(because of higher energy prices, it may also be more costly in real term\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(than in the 1960s. Capital investments for irrigation and infrastructure\
)Tj
T*
(and the organizational requirements for securing continuous improvements\
)Tj
T*
(in agricultural yields may well be beyond the financial and administrati\
ve )Tj
T*
(capacity of many LDCs. For some of the areas under heaviest population )Tj
T*
(pressure, there is little or no prospect for foreign exchange earnings t\
o )Tj
T*
(cover constantly increasing imports of food. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( While it is always unwise to project the recent past into the long-\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(term future, the experience of 1972-73 is very sobering. The coincidence\
)Tj
T*
(of adverse weather in many regions in 1972 brought per capita production\
)Tj
T*
(in the LDCs back to the level of the early 1960s. At the same time, worl\
d )Tj
T*
(food reserves \(mainly American\) were almost exhausted, and they were n\
ot )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(rebuilt during the high production year of 1973. A repetition under thes\
e )Tj
T*
(conditions of 1972 weather patterns would result in large-scale famine o\
f )Tj
T*
(a kind not experienced for several decades -- a kind the world thought h\
ad )Tj
T*
(been permanently banished. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Even if massive famine can be averted, the most optimistic forecast\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(of food production potential in the more populous LDCs show little )Tj
T*
(improvement in the presently inadequate levels and quality of nutrition.\
)Tj
T*
(As long as annual population growth continues at 2 to 3 percent or more,\
)Tj
T*
(LDCs must make expanded food production the top development priority, ev\
en )Tj
T*
(though it may absorb a large fraction of available capital and foreign )Tj
T*
(exchange. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Moderation of population growth rates in the LDCs could make some )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(difference to food requirements by 1985, a substantial difference by 200\
0, )Tj
T*
(and a vast difference in the early part of the next century. From the )Tj
T*
(viewpoint of U.S. interests, such reductions in LDC food needs would be \
)Tj
T*
(clearly advantageous. They would not reduce American commercial markets \
)Tj
T*
(for food since the reduction in LDC food requirements that would result \
)Tj
T*
(from slowing population growth would affect only requests for concession\
al )Tj
T*
(or grant food assistance, not commercial sales. They would improve the )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(28 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
459 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(prospects for maintaining adequate world food reserves against climatic \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(emergencies. They would reduce the likelihood of periodic famines in )Tj
T*
(region after region, accompanied by food riots and chronic social and )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(political instability. They would improve the possibilities for long-ter\
m )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(development and integration into a peaceful world order. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Even taking the most optimistic view of the theoretical possibiliti\
es )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(of producing enough foods in the developed countries to meet the )Tj
T*
(requirements of the developing countries, the problem of increased costs\
)Tj
T*
(to the LDCs is already extremely serious and in its future may be )Tj
T*
(insurmountable. At )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(current)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( prices the anticipated import requirements of )Tj
T*
(102-122 million tons by 2000 would raise the cost of developing countrie\
s' )Tj
T*
(imports of cereals to $16-20)Tj
ET
1 0 0 RG
0.379 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d
235.425 574.855 m
242.854 574.855 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 235.4254 575.9916 Tm
(4)Tj
0 0 0 rg
( billion by that year compared with $2.5 )Tj
-16.8 -1.343 Td
(billion in 1970. Large as they may seem even these estimates of import )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(requirements could be on the low side if the developing countries are )Tj
T*
(unable to achieve the Department of Agriculture's assumed increase in th\
e )Tj
T*
(rate of growth of production. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The FAO in its recent "Preliminary Assessment of the World Food )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Situation Present and Future" has reached a similar conclusion: )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( What is certain is the enormity of the food import bill which might\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(face the developing countries . . . In addition [to cereals] the )Tj
T*
(developing countries . . . would be importing substantial amounts of oth\
er )Tj
T*
(foodstuffs. clearly the financing of international food trade on this )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(scale would raise very grave problems. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( At least three-quarters of the projected increase in cereal imports\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(of developing countries would fall in the poorer countries of South Asia\
)Tj
T*
(and North and Central Africa. The situation in Latin America which is )Tj
T*
(projected to shift from a modest surplus to a modest deficit area is qui\
te )Tj
T*
(different. Most of this deficit will be in Mexico and Central America, )Tj
T*
(with relatively high income and easily exploitable transportation links \
to )Tj
T*
(the U.S. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The problem in Latin America, therefore, appears relatively more )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(manageable. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( It seems highly unlikely, however, that the poorer countries of Asi\
a )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and Africa will be able to finance nearly like the level of import )Tj
T*
(requirements projected by the USDA. Few of them have dynamic export-)Tj
T*
(oriented industrial sectors like Taiwan or South Korea or rich raw )Tj
T*
(material resources that will generate export earnings fast enough to kee\
p )Tj
T*
(pace with food import needs. Accordingly, those countries where large-)Tj
T*
(scale hunger and malnutrition are already present face the bleak prospec\
t )Tj
T*
(of little, if any, improvement in the food intake in the years ahead )Tj
T*
(barring a major foreign financial food aid program, more rapid expansion\
)Tj
T*
(of domestic food production, reduced population growth or some combinati\
on )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(29 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
460 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(of all three. Worse yet, a series of crop disasters could transform some\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(of them into classic Malthusian cases with famines involving millions of\
)Tj
T*
(people. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( While foreign assistance probably will continue to be forthcoming t\
o )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(meet short-term emergency situations like the threat of mass starvation,\
)Tj
T*
(it is more questionable whether aid donor countries will be prepared to \
)Tj
T*
(provide the sort of massive food aid called for by the import projection\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(on a long-term continuing basis. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Reduced population growth rates clearly could bring significant )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(relief over the longer term. Some analysts maintain that for the post-19\
85 )Tj
T*
(period a rapid decline in fertility will be crucial to adequate diets )Tj
T*
(worldwide. If, as noted before, fertility in the developing countries )Tj
T*
(could be made to decline to the replacement level by the year 2000, the \
)Tj
T*
(world's population in that year would be 5.9 billion or 500 million belo\
w )Tj
T*
(the level that would be attained if the UN medium projection were )Tj
T*
(followed. Nearly all of the decline would be in the LDCs. With such a )Tj
T*
(reduction the projected import gap of 102-122 million tons per year coul\
d )Tj
T*
(be eliminated while still permitting a modest improvement in per capita \
)Tj
T*
(consumption. While such a rapid reduction in fertility rates in the next\
)Tj
T*
(30 years is an optimistic target, it is thought by some experts that it \
)Tj
T*
(could be obtained by intensified efforts if its necessity were understoo\
d )Tj
T*
(by world and national leaders. Even more modest reductions could have )Tj
T*
(significant implications by 2000 and even more over time. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Intensive programs to increase food production in developing )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(countries beyond the levels assumed in the U.S.D.A. projections probably\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(offer the best prospect for some reasonably early relief, although this \
)Tj
T*
(poses major technical and organizational difficulties and will involve )Tj
T*
(substantial costs. It must be realized, however, that this will be )Tj
T*
(difficult in all countries and probably impossible in some -- or many. )Tj
T*
(Even with the introduction of new inputs and techniques it has not been \
)Tj
T*
(possible to increase agricultural output by as much as 3 percent per ann\
um )Tj
T*
(in many of the poorer developing countries. Population growth in a numbe\
r )Tj
T*
(of these countries exceeds that rate. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Such a program of increased food production would require the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(widespread use of improved seed varieties, increased applications of )Tj
T*
(chemical fertilizers and pesticides over vast areas and better farm )Tj
T*
(management along with bringing new land under cultivation. It has been )Tj
T*
(estimated, for example, that with better varieties, pest control, and th\
e )Tj
T*
(application of fertilizer on the Japanese scale, Indian rice yields coul\
d )Tj
T*
(theoretically at least, be raised two and one-half times current levels.\
)Tj
T*
(Here again very substantial foreign assistance for imported materials ma\
y )Tj
T*
(be required for at least the early years before the program begins to ta\
ke )Tj
T*
(hold. )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(30 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
461 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
( The problem is clear. The solutions, or at least the directions we \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(must travel to reach them are also generally agreed. What will be requir\
ed )Tj
T*
(is a genuine commitment to a set of policies that will lead the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(international community, both developed and developing countries, to the\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(achievement of the objectives spelled out above. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(CHAPTER III - MINERALS AND FUEL )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Population growth )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(per se)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( is not likely to impose serious constraints )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(on the global physical availability of fuel and non-fuel minerals to the\
)Tj
T*
(end of the century and beyond. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( This favorable outlook on reserves does not rule out shortage )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(situations for specific minerals at particular times and places. Careful\
)Tj
T*
(planning with continued scientific and technological progress \(includin\
g )Tj
T*
(the development of substitutes\) should keep the problems of physical )Tj
T*
(availability within manageable proportions. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The major factor influencing the demand for non-agricultural raw )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(materials is the level of industrial activity, regional and global. For \
)Tj
T*
(example, the U.S., with 6% of the world's population, consumes about a )Tj
T*
(third of its resources. The demand for raw materials, unlike food, is no\
t )Tj
T*
(a direct function of population growth. The current scarcities and high \
)Tj
T*
(prices for most such materials result mainly from the boom conditions in\
)Tj
T*
(all industrialized regions in the years 1972-73. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The important potential linkage between rapid population growth and\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(minerals availability is indirect rather than direct. It flows from the \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(negative effects of excessive population growth in economic development \
)Tj
T*
(and social progress, and therefore on internal stability, in overcrowded\
)Tj
T*
(under-developed countries. The United States has become increasingly )Tj
T*
(dependent on mineral imports from developing countries in recent decades\
, )Tj
T*
(and this trend is likely to continue. The location of known reserves of \
)Tj
T*
(higher-grade ores of most minerals favors increasing dependence of all )Tj
T*
(industrialized regions on imports from less developed countries. The rea\
l )Tj
T*
(problems of mineral supplies lie, not in basic physical sufficiency, but\
)Tj
T*
(in the politico-economic issues of access, terms for exploration and )Tj
T*
(exploitation, and division of the benefits among producers, consumers, a\
nd )Tj
T*
(host country governments. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In the extreme cases where population pressures lead to endemic )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(famine, food riots, and breakdown of social order, those conditions are \
)Tj
T*
(scarcely conducive to systematic exploration for mineral deposits or the\
)Tj
T*
(long-term investments required for their exploitation. Short of famine, \
)Tj
T*
(unless some minimum of popular aspirations for material improvement can \
be )Tj
T*
(satisfied, and unless the terms of access and exploitation persuade )Tj
T*
(governments and peoples that this aspect of the international economic )Tj
T*
(order has "something in it for them," concessions to foreign companies a\
re )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(31 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
462 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(likely to be expropriated or subjected to arbitrary intervention. Whethe\
r )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(through government action, labor conflicts, sabotage, or civil )Tj
T*
(disturbance, the smooth flow of needed materials will be jeopardized. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Although population pressure is obviously not the only factor involved, \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(these types of frustrations are much less likely under conditions of slo\
w )Tj
T*
(or zero population growth. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Reserves. )Tj
T*
( Projections made by the Department of Interior through the year 200\
0 )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(for those fuel and non-fuel minerals on which the U.S. depends heavily f\
or )Tj
T*
(imports)Tj
ET
1 0 0 RG
0.379 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d
79.419 587.767 m
86.847 587.767 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 79.4185 588.9037 Tm
(5)Tj
0 0 0 rg
( support these conclusions on physical resources \(see Annex\). )Tj
-4.2 -1.343 Td
(Proven reserves of many of these minerals appear to be more than adequat\
e )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(to meet the estimated accumulated world demand at 1972 relative prices a\
t )Tj
T*
(least to the end of the century. While petroleum \(including natural gas\
\), )Tj
T*
(copper, zinc, and tin are probable exceptions, the extension of )Tj
T*
(economically exploitable reserves as a result of higher prices, as well \
as )Tj
T*
(substitution and secondary recovery for metals, should avoid long-term )Tj
T*
(supply restrictions. In many cases, the price increases that have taken \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(place since 1972 should be more than sufficient to bring about the )Tj
T*
(necessary extension of reserves. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( These conclusions are consistent with a much more extensive study )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(made in 1972 for the Commission on Population Growth and the American )Tj
T*
(Future.)Tj
ET
79.419 390.901 m
86.847 390.901 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 79.4185 392.0379 Tm
(6)Tj
0 0 0 rg
( )Tj
-4.2 -2.7 Td
( As regards fossil fuels, that study foresees adequate world reserve\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(for at least the next quarter to half century even without major )Tj
T*
(technological breakthroughs. U.S. reserves of coal and oil shale are )Tj
T*
(adequate well into the next century, although their full exploitation ma\
y )Tj
T*
(be limited by environmental and water supply factors. Estimates of the U\
.)Tj
T*
(S. Geological Survey suggest recoverable oil and gas reserves \(assuming\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(sufficiently high prices\) to meet domestic demand for another two or th\
ree )Tj
T*
(decades, but there is also respectable expert opinion supporting much )Tj
T*
(lower estimates; present oil production is below the peak of 1970 and )Tj
T*
(meets only 70 percent of current demands.)Tj
ET
332.001 223.751 m
339.43 223.751 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 332.0012 224.8876 Tm
(7)Tj
0 0 0 rg
( Nevertheless, the U.S. is in a )Tj
-24.6 -1.343 Td
(relatively strong position on fossil fuels compared with the rest of the\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(industrialized world, provided that it takes the time and makes the heav\
y )Tj
T*
(investments needed to develop domestic alternatives to foreign sources. \
)Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In the case of the 19 non-fuel minerals studied by the Commission i\
t )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(was concluded there were sufficient proven reserves of nine to meet )Tj
T*
(cumulative world needs at current relative prices through the year 2020.\
)Tj
ET
562.297 116.032 m
569.726 116.032 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 562.2971 117.1685 Tm
(8)Tj
0 0 0 rg
( )Tj
-43.2 -1.343 Td
(For the ten others)Tj
ET
161.136 99.405 m
168.565 99.405 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 161.1364 100.5419 Tm
(9)Tj
0 0 0 rg
( world proven reserves were considered inadequate. )Tj
-10.8 -1.343 Td
(However, it was judged that moderate price increases, recycling and )Tj
T*
(substitution could bridge the estimated gap between supply and )Tj
T*
(requirements. )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(32 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
463 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 755.5442 Tm
( The above projections probably understate the estimates of global )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(resources. "Proved Reserves," that is known supplies that will be )Tj
T*
(available at present or slightly higher relative costs 10 to 25 years fr\
om )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(now, rarely exceed 25 years' cumulative requirements, because industry )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(generally is reluctant to undertake costly exploration to meet demands )Tj
T*
(which may or may not materialize in the more distant future. Experience \
)Tj
T*
(has shown that additional reserves are discovered as required, at least \
in )Tj
T*
(the case of non-fuel minerals, and "proved reserves" have generally )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(remained constant in relation to consumption. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The adequacy of reserves does not of course assure that supplies wi\
ll )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(be forthcoming in a steady stream as required. Intermediate problems may\
)Tj
T*
(develop as a result of business miscalculations regarding the timing of \
)Tj
T*
(expansion to meet requirements. With the considerable lead time required\
)Tj
T*
(for expanding capacity, this can result in periods of serious shortage f\
or )Tj
T*
(certain materials and rising prices as in the recent past. Similarly, fr\
om )Tj
T*
(time to time there will be periods of overcapacity and falling prices. )Tj
T*
(Necessary technical adjustments required for the shift to substitutes or\
)Tj
T*
(increased recycling also may be delayed by the required lead time or by \
)Tj
T*
(lack of information. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( An early warning system designed to flag impending surpluses and )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(shortages, could be very helpful in anticipating these problems. Such a \
)Tj
T*
(mechanism might take the form of groups of experts working with the UN )Tj
T*
(Division of Resources. Alternatively, intergovernmental commodity study \
)Tj
T*
(groups might be set up for the purpose of monitoring those commodities )Tj
T*
(identified as potential problem areas. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Adequate global availability of fuel and non-fuel minerals is not o\
f )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(much benefit to countries who cannot afford to pay for them. Oil supplie\
s )Tj
T*
(currently are adequate to cover world needs, but the quadrupling of pric\
es )Tj
T*
(in the past year has created grave financial and payment problems for )Tj
T*
(developed and developing countries alike. If similar action to raise )Tj
T*
(prices were undertaken by supplies of other important minerals, an alrea\
dy )Tj
T*
(bad situation would be intensified. Success in such efforts is )Tj
T*
(questionable, however; there is no case in which the quantities involved\
)Tj
T*
(are remotely comparable to the cases of energy; and the scope for )Tj
T*
(successful price-gouging or cartel tactics is much smaller. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Although the U.S. is relatively well off in this regard, it )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(nonetheless depends heavily on mineral imports from a number of sources \
)Tj
T*
(which are not completely safe or stable. It may therefore be necessary, \
)Tj
T*
(especially in the light of our recent oil experience, to keep this )Tj
T*
(dependence within bounds, in some cases by developing additional domesti\
c )Tj
T*
(resources and more generally by acquiring stock-piles for economic as we\
ll )Tj
T*
(as national defense emergencies. There are also possible dangers of )Tj
T*
(unreasonable prices promoted by producer cartels and broader policy )Tj
T*
(questions of U.S. support for commodity agreements involving both )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(33 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
464 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(producers and consumers. Such matters, however, are in the domain of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(commodity policy rather than population policy. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( At least through the end of this century, changes in population )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(growth trends will make little difference to total levels of requirement\
s )Tj
T*
(for fuel and other minerals. Those requirements are related much more )Tj
T*
(closely to levels of income and industrial output, leaving the demand fo\
r )Tj
T*
(minerals substantially unaffected. In the longer run, a lower ultimate )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(world population \(say 8 to 9 billion rather than 12 to 16 billion\) wou\
ld )Tj
T*
(require a lower annual input of depletable resources directly affected b\
y )Tj
T*
(population size as well as a much lower volume of food, forest products,\
)Tj
T*
(textiles, and other renewable resources. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Whatever may be done to guard against interruptions of supply and t\
o )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(develop domestic alternatives, the U.S. economy will require large and )Tj
T*
(increasing amounts of minerals from abroad, especially from less develop\
ed )Tj
T*
(countries.)Tj
ET
1 0 0 RG
0.379 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d
101.705 513.478 m
116.563 513.478 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 101.7052 514.6147 Tm
(10)Tj
0 0 0 rg
( That fact gives the U.S. enhanced interest in the political, )Tj
-6 -1.343 Td
(economic, and social stability of the supplying countries. Wherever a )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(lessening of population pressures through reduced birth rates can increa\
se )Tj
T*
(the prospects for such stability, population policy becomes relevant to \
)Tj
T*
(resource supplies and to the economic interests of the United States. )Tj
21 -2.557 Td
(ANNEX )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
-6 -2.557 Td
(OUTLOOK FOR RAW MATERIALS)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
-15 -2.557 Td
(I. Factors Affecting Raw Material Demand and Supply )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Some of the key factors that must be considered in evaluating the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(future raw materials situation are the stage of a country's economic )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(development and the responsiveness of the market to changes in the )Tj
T*
(relative prices of the raw materials. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Economic theory indicates that the pattern of consumption of raw )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(materials varies with the level of economic activity. Examination of the\
)Tj
T*
(intensity-of-use of raw materials \(incremental quantity of raw material\
)Tj
T*
(needed to support an additional unit of GNP\) show that after a particul\
ar )Tj
T*
(level of GNP is reached, the intensity of use of raw materials starts to\
)Tj
T*
(decline. Possible explanations for this decline are: )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 1. In industrialized countries, the services component of GNP expan\
ds )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(relative to the non-services components as economic growth occurs. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 2. Technological progress, on the whole, tends to lower the intensi\
ty-)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(of-use through greater efficiency in the use of raw materials and )Tj
T*
(development of alloys. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 3. Economic growth continues to be characterized by substitution of\
)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(34 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
465 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 754.8367 Tm
(one material by another and substitution of synthetics for natural )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(materials.)Tj
ET
1 0 0 RG
0.379 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d
101.705 738.842 m
116.563 738.842 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 101.7052 739.9789 Tm
(11)Tj
0 0 0 rg
( )Tj
-6 -2.7 Td
( Most developed countries have reached this point of declining )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(intensity-of-use.)Tj
ET
153.708 690.554 m
168.565 690.554 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 153.7075 691.691 Tm
(12)Tj
0 0 0 rg
( For other countries that have not reached this stage )Tj
-10.2 -1.343 Td
(of economic development, their population usually goes through a stage o\
f )Tj
T*
(rapid growth prior to industrialization. This is due to the relative eas\
e )Tj
T*
(in the application of improved health care policies and the resulting )Tj
T*
(decline in their death rates, while birth rates remain high. Then the )Tj
T*
(country's economy does begin to industrialize and grow more rapidly, the\
)Tj
T*
(initial rapid rise in industrial production results in an increasing )Tj
T*
(intensity-of-use of raw materials, until industrial production reached t\
he )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(level where the intensity-of-use begins to decline. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( As was discussed above, changes in the relative prices of raw )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(materials change the amount of economically recoverable reserves. Thus, \
)Tj
T*
(the relative price level, smoothness of the adjustment process, and )Tj
T*
(availability of capital for needed investment can also be expected to )Tj
T*
(significantly influence raw materials' market conditions. In addition, )Tj
T*
(technological improvement in mining and metallurgy permits lower grade )Tj
T*
(ores to be exploited without corresponding increases in costs. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The following table presents the 1972 net imports and the ratio of \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(imports to total demand for nine commodities. The net imports of these )Tj
T*
(nine commodities represented 99 percent of the total trade deficit in )Tj
T*
(minerals. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( +--------------------------+--------------+------------------+)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( | | 1972 | Ratio of Imports |)Tj
T*
( | Commodity | Net Imports | to Total Demand |)Tj
T*
( | | \($Millions\)* | |)Tj
T*
( +--------------------------+--------------+------------------+)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( | Aluminum | 48.38 | .286 |)Tj
T*
( | Copper | 206.4 | .160 |)Tj
T*
( | Iron | 424.5 | .049 |)Tj
T*
( | Lead | 102.9 | .239 |)Tj
T*
( | Nickel | 477.1 | .704 |)Tj
T*
( | Tin | 220.2 | .943 |)Tj
T*
( | Titanium | 256.5 | .469 |)Tj
T*
( | Zinc | 294.8 | .517 |)Tj
T*
( | Petroleum | 5,494.5 | .246 |)Tj
T*
( | \(including natural gas\) | | |)Tj
T*
( +--------------------------+--------------+------------------+)Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(The primary sources of these US imports during the period 1969-1972 were\
: )Tj
T*
( +-------------------------------------------------------------+)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( | Commodity Source & % |)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(35 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
466 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
( +-------------------------------------------------------------+)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( | Aluminum - Canada 76% |)Tj
T*
( | Copper - Canada 31%, Peru 27%, Chile 22% |)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( | Iron - Canada 50%, Venezuela 31% |)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( | Lead - Canada 29%, Peru 21%, Australia 21% |)Tj
T*
( | Nickel - Canada 82%, Norway 8% |)Tj
T*
( | Tin - Malaysia 64%, Thailand 27% |)Tj
T*
( | Titanium - Japan 73%, USSR 19% |)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( | Zinc \(Ore\) - Canada 60%, Mexico 24% |)Tj
T*
( | Zinc \(Metal\) - Canada 48%, Australia 10% |)Tj
T*
( | Pertroleum \(crude\) - Canada 42% |)Tj
T*
( | Petroleum \(crude\) - Venezuela 17% |)Tj
T*
( +-------------------------------------------------------------+)Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(II. World Reserves )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The following table shows estimates of the world reserve position f\
or )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(these commodities. As mentioned earlier, the quantity of economically )Tj
T*
(recoverable reserves increases with higher prices. The following tables,\
)Tj
T*
(based on Bureau of Mines information, provide estimates of reserves at )Tj
T*
(various prices. \(All prices are in constant 1972 dollars.\) )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Aluminum \(Bauxite\))Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( Price \(per pound primary aluminum\))Tj
T*
( Price A Price B Price C Price D)Tj
T*
( .23 .29 .33 .36)Tj
0 -3.6 TD
( Reserves \(billion short tons, aluminum content\))Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( World 3.58 3.76 4.15 5.21)Tj
T*
( U.S. .01 .02 .04 .09)Tj
0 -3.6 TD
(Copper)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( Price \(per pound refined copper\))Tj
T*
( .51 .60 .75)Tj
0 -3.6 TD
( Reserves \(million short tons\))Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( World 370 418 507 )Tj
T*
( U.S. 83 93 115 )Tj
0 -3.6 TD
(Gold)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( Price \(per troy ounce\) )Tj
T*
( 58.60 90 100 150)Tj
0 -3.6 TD
( Reserves \(million troy ounce\))Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(36 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
467 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 755.3673 Tm
( World 1,000 1,221 1,588 1,850)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( U.S. 82 120 200 240)Tj
0 -3.6 TD
(Iron)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( Price \(per short ton of primary iron contained in ore\))Tj
T*
( 17.80 20.80 23.80 )Tj
0 -3.6 TD
( Reserves \(billion short tons iron content\))Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( World 96.7 129.0 206.0 )Tj
T*
( U.S. 2.0 2.7 18.0 )Tj
0 -3.6 TD
(Lead)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( Price \(per pound primary lead metal\))Tj
T*
( .15 .18 .20 )Tj
T*
( Reserves \(million short tons, lead content\))Tj
T*
( World 96.0 129.0 144.0 )Tj
T*
( U.S. 36.0 51.0 56.0)Tj
0 -3.6 TD
(Nickel)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( Price \(per pound of primary metal\))Tj
T*
( 1.53 1.75 2.00 2.25)Tj
0 -3.6 TD
( Reserves \(millions short tons\))Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( World 46.2 60.5 78.0 99.5)Tj
T*
( U.S. .2 .2 .5 .5)Tj
0 -3.6 TD
(Tin)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( Price \(per pound primary tin metal\))Tj
T*
( 1.77 2.00 2.50 3.00)Tj
0 -3.6 TD
( Reserves \(thousands of long tons - tin content\))Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( World 4,180 5,500 7,530 9,290)Tj
T*
( U.S. 5 9 100 200)Tj
0 -4.8 TD
(Titanium)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( Price \(per pound titanium in pigment\))Tj
T*
( .45 .55 .60)Tj
0 -3.6 TD
( Reserves \(thousands short tons titanium content\))Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(37 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
468 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
( World 158,000 222,000 327,000 )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( U.S. 32,400 45,000 60,000)Tj
0 -3.6 TD
(Zinc)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( Price \(per pound, prime western zinc delivered\))Tj
T*
( .18 .25 .30)Tj
0 -3.6 TD
( Reserves \(million short tons, zinc content\))Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( World 131 193 260 )Tj
T*
( U.S. 30 40 50 )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
0 -2.557 TD
(Petroleum:)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( )Tj
T*
(Data necessary to quantify reserve-price relationships are not available\
. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(For planning purposes, however, the Bureau of Mines used the rough )Tj
T*
(assumption that a 100% increase in price would increase reserves by 10%.\
)Tj
T*
(The average 1972 U.S. price was $3.39/bbl. with proven world reserves of\
)Tj
T*
(666.9 billion bbls. and U.S. reserves of 36.3 billion barrels. Using the\
)Tj
T*
(Bureau of Mines assumption, therefore, a doubling in world price \(a U.S\
. )Tj
T*
(price of $6.78/bbl.\) would imply world reserves of 733.5 billion bbls. \
and )Tj
T*
(U.S. reserves of 39.9 billion barrels. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
0 -2.557 TD
(Natural Gas:)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( )Tj
T*
( Price \(wellhead price per thousand cubic feet\))Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( .186 .34 .44 .55)Tj
0 -3.6 TD
( Reserves \(trillion cubic feet\))Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( World 1,156 6,130 10,240 15,599)Tj
T*
( U.S. 266 580 900 2,349)Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(It should be noted that these statistics represent a shift in 1972 )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(relative prices and assume constant 1972 technology. The development of \
)Tj
T*
(new technology or a more dramatic shift in relative prices can have a )Tj
T*
(significant impact on the supply of economically recoverable reserves. )Tj
T*
(Aluminum is a case in point. It is the most abundant metallic element in\
)Tj
T*
(the earth's crust and the supply of this resource is almost entirely )Tj
T*
(determined by the price. Current demand and technology limit economicall\
y )Tj
T*
(recoverable reserves to bauxite sources. Alternate sources of aluminum )Tj
T*
(exist \(e.g., alunite\) and if improved technology is developed making t\
hese )Tj
T*
(alternate sources commercially viable, supply constraints will not likel\
y )Tj
T*
(be encountered. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(The above estimated reserve figures, while representing approximate orde\
rs )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(of magnitude, are adequate to meet projected accumulated world demand )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(38 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
469 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(\(also very rough orders of magnitude\) through the year 2000. In some )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(cases, modest price increases above the 1972 level may be required to )Tj
T*
(attract the necessary capital investment. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Chapter IV - Economic Development and Population Growth )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Rapid population growth adversely affects every aspect of economic \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and social progress in developing countries. It absorbs large amounts of\
)Tj
T*
(resources needed for more productive investment in development. It )Tj
T*
(requires greater expenditures for health, education and other social )Tj
T*
(services, particularly in urban areas. It increases the dependency load \
)Tj
T*
(per worker so that a high fraction of the output of the productive age )Tj
T*
(group is needed to support dependents. It reduces family savings and )Tj
T*
(domestic investment. It increases existing severe pressures on limited )Tj
T*
(agricultural land in countries where the world's "poverty problem" is )Tj
T*
(concentrated. It creates a need for use of large amounts of scarce forei\
gn )Tj
T*
(exchange for food imports \(or the loss of food surpluses for export\). \
)Tj
T*
(Finally, it intensifies the already severe unemployment and )Tj
T*
(underemployment problems of many developing countries where not enough )Tj
T*
(productive jobs are created to absorb the annual increments to the labor\
)Tj
T*
(force. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Even in countries with good resource/population ratios, rapid )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population growth causes problems for several reasons: First, large )Tj
T*
(capital investments generally are required to exploit unused resources. \
)Tj
T*
(Second, some countries already have high and growing unemployment and la\
ck )Tj
T*
(the means to train new entrants to their labor force. Third, there are )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(long delays between starting effective family planning programs and )Tj
T*
(reducing fertility, and even longer delays between reductions in fertili\
ty )Tj
T*
(and population stabilization. Hence there is substantial danger of vastl\
y )Tj
T*
(overshooting population targets if population growth is not moderated in\
)Tj
T*
(the near future. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( During the past decade, the developing countries have raised their \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(GNP at a rate of 5 percent per annum as against 4.8 percent in developed\
)Tj
T*
(countries. But at the same time the LDCs experienced an average annual )Tj
T*
(population growth rate of 2.5 percent. Thus their per capita income grow\
th )Tj
T*
(rate was only 2.5 percent and in some of the more highly populated areas\
)Tj
T*
(the increase in per capita incomes was less than 2 percent. This stands \
in )Tj
T*
(stark contrast to 3.6 percent in the rich countries. Moreover, the low )Tj
T*
(rate means that there is very little change in those countries whose per\
)Tj
T*
(capita incomes are $200 or less per annum. The problem has been further \
)Tj
T*
(exacerbated in recent months by the dramatic increases in oil and )Tj
T*
(fertilizer prices. The World Bank has estimated that the incomes of the \
)Tj
T*
(800 million inhabitants of the countries hardest hit by the oil crisis )Tj
T*
(will grow at less than 1% per capita per year of the remainder of the )Tj
T*
(1970s. Taking account of inequalities in income distribution, there will\
)Tj
T*
(be well over 500 million people, with average incomes of less than $100 \
)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(39 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
470 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(per capita, who will experience either no growth or negative growth in )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(that period. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Moderation of population growth offers benefits in terms of resourc\
es )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(saved for investment and/or higher per capita consumption. If resource )Tj
T*
(requirements to support fewer children are reduced and the funds now )Tj
T*
(allocated for construction of schools, houses, hospitals and other )Tj
T*
(essential facilities are invested in productive activities, the impact o\
n )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the growth of GNP and per capita income may be significant. In addition,\
)Tj
T*
(economic and social progress resulting from population control will )Tj
T*
(further contribute to the decline in fertility rates. The relationship i\
s )Tj
T*
(reciprocal, and can take the form of either a vicious or a virtuous )Tj
T*
(circle. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( This raises the question of how much more efficient expenditures fo\
r )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population control might be than in raising production through direct )Tj
T*
(investments in additional irrigation and power projects and factories. )Tj
T*
(While most economists today do not agree with the assumptions that went \
)Tj
T*
(into early overly optimistic estimates of returns to population )Tj
T*
(expenditures, there is general agreement that up to the point when cost \
)Tj
T*
(per acceptor rises rapidly, family planning expenditures are generally )Tj
T*
(considered the best investment a country can make in its own future. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(II. Impact of Population Growth on Economic Development )Tj
T*
( In most, if not all, developing countries high fertility rates impo\
se )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(substantial economic costs and restrain economic growth. The main advers\
e )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(macroeconomic effects may be analyzed in three general categories: \(1\)\
the )Tj
T*
(saving effect, \(2\) "child quality" versus "child quantity", and \(3\) \
)Tj
T*
("capital deepening" versus "capital widening." These three categories ar\
e )Tj
T*
(not mutually exclusive, but they highlight different familial and social\
)Tj
T*
(perspectives. In addition, there are often longer-run adverse effects on\
)Tj
T*
(agricultural output and the balance of payments. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( \(1\) )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(The saving effect)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. A high fertility economy has perforce a larger )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
("burden of dependency" than a low fertility economy, because a larger )Tj
T*
(proportion of the population consists of children too young to work. The\
re )Tj
T*
(are more non-working people to feed, house and rear, and there is a )Tj
T*
(smaller surplus above minimum consumption available for savings and )Tj
T*
(investment. It follows that a lower fertility rate can free resources fr\
om )Tj
T*
(consumption; if saved and invested, these resources could contribute to \
)Tj
T*
(economic growth. \(There is much controversy on this; empirical studies \
of )Tj
T*
(the savings effect have produced varying results.\) )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( \(2\) )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Child quality versus quantity)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. Parents make investment decisions, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(in a sense, about their children. Healthier and better-educated children\
)Tj
T*
(tend to be economically more productive, both as children and later as )Tj
T*
(adults. In addition to the more-or-less conscious trade-offs parents can\
)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(40 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
471 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(make about more education and better health per child, there are certain\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(biologic adverse effects suffered by high birth order children such as )Tj
T*
(higher mortality and limited brain growth due to higher incidence of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(malnutrition. It must be emphasized, however, that discussion of trade-)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(offs between child quality and child quantity will probably remain )Tj
T*
(academic with regard to countries where child mortality remains high. Wh\
en )Tj
T*
(parents cannot expect most children to survive to old age, they probably\
)Tj
T*
(will continue to "over-compensate", using high fertility as a form of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(hedge to insure that they will have )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(some)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( living offspring able to support )Tj
T*
(the parents in the distant future. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( \(3\) )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Capital deepening versus widening)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. From the family's viewpoint )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(high fertility is likely to reduce welfare per child; for the economy on\
e )Tj
T*
(may view high fertility as too rapid a growth in labor force relative to\
)Tj
T*
(capital stock. Society's capital stock includes facilities such as schoo\
ls )Tj
T*
(and other educational inputs in addition to capital investments that rai\
se )Tj
T*
(workers' outputs in agriculture and manufacturing. For any given rate of\
)Tj
T*
(capital accumulation, a lower population growth rate can help increase t\
he )Tj
T*
(amount of capital and education per worker, helping thereby to increase \
)Tj
T*
(output and income per capita. The problem of migration to cities and the\
)Tj
T*
(derived demand for urban infrastructure can also be analyzed as problems\
)Tj
T*
(of capital widening, which draw resources away from growth-generating )Tj
T*
(investments. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In a number of the more populous countries a fourth aspect of rapid\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(growth in numbers has emerged in recent years which has profound long-ru\
n )Tj
T*
(consequences. Agricultural output was able to keep pace or exceed )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population growth over the many decades of population rise prior to the \
)Tj
T*
(middle of this century, primarily through steady expansion of acreage )Tj
T*
(under cultivation. More recently, only marginal unused land has been )Tj
T*
(available in India, Thailand, Java, Bangladesh, and other areas. As a )Tj
T*
(result \(a\) land holdings have declined in size, and \(b\) land shortag\
e has )Tj
T*
(led to deforestation and overgrazing, with consequent soil erosion and )Tj
T*
(severe water pollution and increased urban migration. Areas that once )Tj
T*
(earned foreign exchange through the export of food surpluses are now in \
)Tj
T*
(deficit or face early transition to dependence on food imports. Although\
)Tj
T*
(the scope for raising agricultural productivity is very great in many of\
)Tj
T*
(these areas, the available technologies for doing so require much higher\
)Tj
T*
(capital costs per acre and much larger foreign exchange outlays for )Tj
T*
("modern" inputs \(chemical fertilizer, pesticides, petroleum fuels, etc.\
\) )Tj
T*
(than was the case with the traditional technologies. Thus the population\
)Tj
T*
(growth problem can be seen as an important long-run, or structural, )Tj
T*
(contributor to current LDC balance of payments problems and to )Tj
T*
(deterioration of their basic ecological infrastructure. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Finally, high fertility appears to exacerbate the maldistribution o\
f )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(income which is a fundamental economic and social problem in much of the\
)Tj
T*
(developing world. Higher income families tend to have fewer children, )Tj
T*
(spend more on the health and education of these children, have more weal\
th )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(41 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
472 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 755.3673 Tm
(to pass on to these children in contrast to the several disadvantages th\
at )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(face the children of the poor. The latter tend to be more numerous, )Tj
T*
(receiving less of an investment per child in their "human capital", )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(leaving the children with economic, educational and social constraints )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(similar to those which restrict the opportunities of the parents. In )Tj
T*
(short, high fertility contributes to the intergenerational continuity of\
)Tj
T*
(maldistributions of income and related social and political problems. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(III. The Effect of Development on Population Growth )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The determinants of population growth are not well understood, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(especially for low income societies. Historical data show that declining\
)Tj
T*
(fertility in Europe and North America has been associated with declining\
)Tj
T*
(mortality and increasing urbanization, and generally with "modernization\
." )Tj
T*
(Fertility declined substantially in the West without the benefit of )Tj
T*
(sophisticated contraceptives. This movement from high fertility and high\
)Tj
T*
(mortality to low fertility and low mortality is known as the "demographi\
c )Tj
T*
(transition". In many low income countries mortality has declined markedl\
y )Tj
T*
(since World War II \(in large part from reduction in epidemic illness an\
d )Tj
T*
(famine\), but fertility has remained high. Apart from a few pockets of l\
ow )Tj
T*
(fertility in East Asia and the Caribbean, a significant demographic )Tj
T*
(transition has not occurred in the third world. \(The Chinese, however, \
)Tj
T*
(make remarkable claims about their success in reducing birth rates, and \
)Tj
T*
(qualified observers are persuaded that they have had unusual success eve\
n )Tj
T*
(though specific demographic information is lacking.\) )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( There is considerable, incontestable evidence in many developing )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(countries that a larger \(though not fully known\) number of couples wou\
ld )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(like to have fewer children than possible generally there -- and that )Tj
T*
(there is a large unsatisfied demand by these couples for family planning\
)Tj
T*
(services. It is also now widely believed that something more that family\
)Tj
T*
(planning services will be needed to motivate other couples to want small\
er )Tj
T*
(families and all couples to want replacement levels essential to the )Tj
T*
(progress and growth of their countries. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( There is also evidence, although it is not conclusive, that certain\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(aspects of economic development and modernization are more directly )Tj
T*
(related to lowered birth rates than others, and that selective )Tj
T*
(developmental policies may bring about a demographic transition at )Tj
T*
(substantially lower per capita income levels than in Europe, North )Tj
T*
(America, and Japan.)Tj
ET
1 0 0 RG
0.379 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d
168.565 152.136 m
183.423 152.136 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 168.5653 153.2725 Tm
(13)Tj
0 0 0 rg
( Such selective policies would focus on improved )Tj
-11.4 -1.343 Td
(health care and nutrition directed toward reduced infant and child )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(mortality; universal schooling and adult literacy, especially for women;\
)Tj
T*
(increasing the legal age of marriage; greater opportunities for female )Tj
T*
(employment in the money economy; improved old-age social security )Tj
T*
(arrangements; and agricultural modernization focussed on small farmers. \
It )Tj
T*
(is important that this focus be made in development programs because, )Tj
T*
(given today's high population densities, high birth rates, and low incom\
e )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(42 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
473 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(levels in much of Asia, Africa, and Latin America, if the demographic )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(transition has to await overall development and modernization, the vicio\
us )Tj
T*
(circle of poverty, people, and unemployment may never be broken. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The causes of high birth rates in low income societies are generall\
y )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(explained in terms of three factors: )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( a. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Inadequacy of information and means)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. Actual family size in many )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(societies is higher than desired family size owing to ignorance of )Tj
T*
(acceptable birth control methods or unavailability of birth control )Tj
T*
(devices and services. The importance of this factor is evidenced by many\
)Tj
T*
(sociological investigations on "desired family size" versus actual size,\
)Tj
T*
(and by the substantial rates of acceptance for contraceptives when )Tj
T*
(systematic family planning services are introduced. This factor has been\
a )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(basic assumption in the family planning programs of official bilateral a\
nd )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(multilateral programs in many countries over the past decade. Whatever t\
he )Tj
T*
(actual weight of this factor, which clearly varies from country to count\
ry )Tj
T*
(and which shifts with changes in economic and social conditions, there )Tj
T*
(remains without question a significant demand for family planning )Tj
T*
(services. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( b. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Inadequacy of motivation for reduced numbers of children)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Especially in the rural areas of underdeveloped countries, which account\
)Tj
T*
(for the major share of today's population growth, parents often want lar\
ge )Tj
T*
(numbers of children \(especially boys\) \(i\) to ensure that some will s\
urvive )Tj
T*
(against the odds of high child mortality, \(ii\) to provide support for \
the )Tj
T*
(parents in their old age, and \(iii\) to provide low cost farm labor. Wh\
ile )Tj
T*
(these elements are present among rural populace, continued urbanization \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(may reduce the need for sons in the longer term. The absence of )Tj
T*
(educational and employment opportunities for young women intensifies the\
se )Tj
T*
(same motivations by encouraging early marriage and early and frequent )Tj
T*
(maternity. This factor suggests the crucial importance of selective )Tj
T*
(development policies as a means of accelerating the reduction of )Tj
T*
(fertility. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( c. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(The "time lag")Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. Family preferences and social institutions that )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(favor high fertility change slowly. Even though mortality and economic )Tj
T*
(conditions have improved significantly since World War II in LDCs, famil\
y )Tj
T*
(expectations, social norms, and parental practice are slow to respond to\
)Tj
T*
(these altered conditions. This factor leads to the need for large scale \
)Tj
T*
(programs of information, education, and persuasion directed at lower )Tj
T*
(fertility. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The three elements are undoubtedly intermixed in varying proportion\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(in all underdeveloped countries with high birth rates. In most LDCs, man\
y )Tj
T*
(couples would reduce their completed family size if appropriate birth )Tj
T*
(control methods were more easily available. The extent of this reduction\
, )Tj
T*
(however, may still leave their completed family size at higher than mere\
)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(43 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
474 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(replacement levels -- i.e., at levels implying continued but less rapid \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population growth. Many other couples would not reduce their desired )Tj
T*
(family size merely if better contraceptives were available, either becau\
se )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(they see large families as economically beneficial, or because of cultur\
al )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(factors, or because they misread their own economic interests. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Therefore, family planning supply \(contraceptive technology and )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(delivery systems\) and demand \(the motivation for reduced fertility\) w\
ould )Tj
T*
(not be viewed as mutually exclusive alternatives; they are complementary\
)Tj
T*
(and may be mutually reinforcing. The selected point of focus mentioned )Tj
T*
(earlier -- old age security programs, maternal and child health programs\
, )Tj
T*
(increased female education, increasing the legal age of marriage, )Tj
T*
(financial incentives to "acceptors", personnel, -- are important, yet )Tj
T*
(better information is required as to which measures are most cost-)Tj
T*
(effective and feasible in a given situation and how their cost-)Tj
T*
(effectiveness compares to supply programs. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( One additional interesting area is receiving increasing attention: \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the distribution of the benefits of development. Experience in several )Tj
T*
(countries suggests that the extent to which the poor, with the highest )Tj
T*
(fertility rates, reduce their fertility will depend on the extent to whi\
ch )Tj
T*
(they participate in development. In this view the average level of )Tj
T*
(economic development and the average amount of modernization are less )Tj
T*
(important determinants of population growth than is the specific structu\
re )Tj
T*
(of development. This line of investigation suggests that social )Tj
T*
(development activities need to be more precisely targeted than in the pa\
st )Tj
T*
(to reach the lowest income people, to counteract their desire for high )Tj
T*
(fertility as a means of alleviating certain adverse conditions. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( IV. Employment and Social Problems )Tj
T*
( Employment, aside from its role in production of goods and services\
, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(is an important source of income and of status or recognition to workers\
)Tj
T*
(and their families. The inability of large segments of the economically \
)Tj
T*
(active population in developing countries to find jobs offering a minimu\
m )Tj
T*
(acceptable standard of living is reflected in a widening of income )Tj
T*
(disparities and a deepening sense of economic, political and social )Tj
T*
(frustration. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The most )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(economically)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( significant employment problems in LDCs )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(contributed to by excessive population growth are low worker productivit\
y )Tj
T*
(in production of traditional goods and services produced, the changing )Tj
T*
(aspirations of the work force, the existing distribution of income, weal\
th )Tj
T*
(and power, and the natural resource endowment of a country. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The political and social problems of urban overcrowding are directl\
y )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(related to population growth. In addition to the still-high fertility in\
)Tj
T*
(urban areas of many LDC's, population pressures on the land, which )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(44 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
475 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(increases migration to the cities, adds to the pressures on urban job )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(markets and political stability, and strains, the capacity to provide )Tj
T*
(schools, health facilities, and water supplies. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( It should be recognized that lower fertility will relieve only a )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(portion of these strains and that its most beneficial effects will be fe\
lt )Tj
T*
(only over a period of decades. Most of the potential migrants from )Tj
T*
(countryside to city over the coming 15 to 20 years have already been bor\
n. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Lower birth rates do provide some immediate relief to health and )Tj
T*
(sanitation and welfare services, and medium-term relief to pressures on \
)Tj
T*
(educational systems. The largest effects on employment, migration, and )Tj
T*
(living standards, however, will be felt only after 25 or 30 years. The )Tj
T*
(time lags inherent in all aspects of population dynamics only reinforce \
)Tj
T*
(the urgency of adopting effective policies in the years immediately ahea\
d )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(if the formidable problems of the present decade are not to become utter\
ly )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(unmanageable in the 1990s and beyond the year 2000. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Chapter V -- Implications of Population Pressures for National Security \
)Tj
T*
( It seems well understood that the impact of population factors on t\
he )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(subjects already considered -- development, food requirements, resources\
, )Tj
T*
(environment -- adversely affects the welfare and progress of countries i\
n )Tj
T*
(which we have a friendly interest and thus indirectly adversely affects \
)Tj
T*
(broad U.S. interests as well. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The effects of population factors on the political stability of the\
se )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(countries and their implications for internal and international order or\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(disorder, destructive social unrest, violence and disruptive foreign )Tj
T*
(activities are less well understood and need more analysis. Nevertheless\
, )Tj
T*
(some strategists and experts believe that these effects may ultimately b\
e )Tj
T*
(the most important of those arising from population factors, most harmfu\
l )Tj
T*
(to the countries where they occur and seriously affecting U.S. interests\
. )Tj
T*
(Other experts within the U.S. Government disagree with this conclusion. \
)Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( A recent study)Tj
ET
1 0 0 RG
0.379 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d
168.565 240.201 m
183.423 240.201 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 168.5653 241.3373 Tm
(14)Tj
0 0 0 rg
( of forty-five local conflicts involving Third World )Tj
-11.4 -1.343 Td
(countries examined the ways in which population factors affect the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(initiation and course of a conflict in different situations. The study )Tj
T*
(reached two major conclusions: )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 1. ". . . population factors are indeed critical in, and often )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(determinants of, violent conflict in developing areas. Segmental )Tj
T*
(\(religious, social, racial\) differences, migration, rapid population )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(growth, differential levels of knowledge and skills, rural/urban )Tj
T*
(differences, population pressure and the spacial location of population \
in )Tj
T*
(relation to resources -- in this rough order of importance -- all appear\
)Tj
T*
(to be important contributions to conflict and violence... )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 2. Clearly, conflicts which are regarded in primarily political ter\
ms )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(45 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
476 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(often have demographic roots: Recognition of these relationships appears\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(crucial to any understanding or prevention of such hostilities." )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( It does )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(not)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( appear that the population factors act alone or, often, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(directly to cause the disruptive effects. They act through intervening )Tj
T*
(elements -- variables. They also add to other causative factors turning \
)Tj
T*
(what might have been only a difficult situation into one with disruptive\
)Tj
T*
(results. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( This action is seldom simple. Professor Philip Hauser of the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(University of Chicago has suggested the concept of "population complosio\
n" )Tj
T*
(to describe the situation in many developing countries when \(a\) more a\
nd )Tj
T*
(more people are born into or move into and are compressed in the same )Tj
T*
(living space under \(b\) conditions and irritations of different races, \
)Tj
T*
(colors, religions, languages, or cultural backgrounds, often with )Tj
T*
(differential rates of population growth among these groups, and \(c\) wi\
th )Tj
T*
(the frustrations of failure to achieve their aspirations for better )Tj
T*
(standards of living for themselves or their children. To these may be )Tj
T*
(added pressures for and actual international migration. These population\
)Tj
T*
(factors appear to have a multiplying effect on other factors involved in\
)Tj
T*
(situations of incipient violence. Population density, the "overpopulatio\
n" )Tj
T*
(most often thought of in this connection, is much less important. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( These population factors contribute to socio-economic variables )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(including breakdowns in social structures, underemployment and )Tj
T*
(unemployment, poverty, deprived people in city slums, lowered )Tj
T*
(opportunities for education for the masses, few job opportunities for )Tj
T*
(those who do obtain education, interracial, religious, and regional )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(rivalries, and sharply increased financial, planning, and administrative\
)Tj
T*
(burdens on governmental systems at all levels. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( These adverse conditions appear to contribute frequently to harmful\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(developments of a political nature: Juvenile delinquency, thievery and )Tj
T*
(other crimes, organized brigandry, kidnapping and terrorism, food riots,\
)Tj
T*
(other outbreaks of violence; guerilla warfare, communal violence, )Tj
T*
(separatist movements, revolutionary movements and counter-revolutionary \
)Tj
T*
(coups. All of these bear upon the weakening or collapse of local, state,\
)Tj
T*
(or national government functions. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Beyond national boundaries, population factors appear to have had )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(operative roles in some past politically disturbing legal or illegal mas\
s )Tj
T*
(migrations, border incidents, and wars. If current increased population \
)Tj
T*
(pressures continue they may have greater potential for future disruption\
)Tj
T*
(in foreign relations. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Perhaps most important, in the last decade population factors have \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(impacted more severely than before on availabilities of agricultural lan\
d )Tj
T*
(and resources, industrialization, pollution and the environment. All thi\
s )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(46 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
477 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(is occurring at a time when international communications have created )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(rising expectations which are being frustrated by slow development and )Tj
T*
(inequalities of distribution. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Since population factors work with other factors and act through )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(intervening linkages, research as to their effects of a political nature\
)Tj
T*
(is difficult and "proof" even more so. This does )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(not)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( mean, however, that )Tj
T*
(the causality does not exist. It means only that U.S. policy decisions )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(must take into account the less precise and programmatic character of ou\
r )Tj
T*
(knowledge of these linkages. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Although general hypotheses are hard to draw, some seem reasonably \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(sustainable: )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 1. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Population growth and inadequate resources)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. Where population size )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(is greater than available resources, or is expanding more rapidly than t\
he )Tj
T*
(available resources, there is a tendency toward internal disorders and )Tj
T*
(violence and, sometimes, disruptive international policies or violence. \
)Tj
T*
(The higher the rate of growth, the more salient a factor population )Tj
T*
(increase appears to be. A sense of increasing crowding, real or perceive\
d, )Tj
T*
(seems to generate such tendencies, especially if it seems to thwart )Tj
T*
(obtaining desired personal or national goals. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 2. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Populations with a high proportion of growth)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. The young people, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(who are in much higher proportions in many LDCs, are likely to be more )Tj
T*
(volatile, unstable, prone to extremes, alienation and violence than an )Tj
T*
(older population. These young people can more readily be persuaded to )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(attack the legal institutions of the government or real property of the \
)Tj
T*
("establishment," "imperialists," multinational corporations, or other --\
)Tj
T*
(often foreign -- influences blamed for their troubles. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 3. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Population factors with social cleavages)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. When adverse population )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(factors of growth, movement, density, excess, or pressure coincide with \
)Tj
T*
(racial, religious, color, linguistic, cultural, or other social cleavage\
s, )Tj
T*
(there will develop the most potentially explosive situations for interna\
l )Tj
T*
(disorder, perhaps with external effects. When such factors exist togethe\
r )Tj
T*
(with the reality or sense of relative deprivation among different groups\
)Tj
T*
(within the same country or in relation to other countries or peoples, th\
e )Tj
T*
(probability of violence increases significantly. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 4. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Population movements and international migrations)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. Population )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(movements within countries appear to have a large role in disorders. )Tj
T*
(Migrations into neighboring countries \(especially those richer or more \
)Tj
T*
(sparsely settled\), whether legal or illegal, can provoke negative )Tj
T*
(political reactions or force. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( There may be increased propensities for violence arising simply fro\
m )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(technological developments making it easier -- e.g., international )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(47 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
478 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(proliferation and more ready accessibility to sub-national groups of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(nuclear and other lethal weaponry. These possibilities make the disrupti\
ve )Tj
T*
(population factors discussed above even more dangerous. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Some Effects of Current Population Pressures )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In the 1960s and 1970s, there have been a series of episodes in whi\
ch )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population factors have apparently had a role -- directly or indirectly \
-- )Tj
T*
(affecting countries in which we have an interest. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(El Salvador-Honduras War)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. An example was the 1969 war between El )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Salvador and Honduras. Dubbed the "Soccer War", it was sparked by a riot\
)Tj
T*
(during a soccer match, its underlying cause was tension resulting from t\
he )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(large scale migration of Salvadorans from their rapidly growing, densely\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(populated country to relatively uninhabited areas of Honduras. The )Tj
T*
(Hondurans resented the presence of migrants and in 1969 began to enforce\
)Tj
T*
(an already extant land tenancy law to expel them. El Salvador was angere\
d )Tj
T*
(by the treatment given its citizens. Flaring tempers on both sides over \
)Tj
T*
(this issue created a situation which ultimately led to a military clash.\
)Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Nigeria)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. The Nigerian civil war seriously retarded the progress of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Africa's most populous nations and caused political repercussions and )Tj
T*
(pressures in the United States. It was fundamentally a matter of tribal \
)Tj
T*
(relationships. Irritations among the tribes caused in part by rapidly )Tj
T*
(increasing numbers of people, in a situation of inadequate opportunity f\
or )Tj
T*
(most of them, magnified the tribal issues and may have helped precipitat\
e )Tj
T*
(the war. The migration of the Ibos from Eastern Nigeria, looking for )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(employment, led to competition with local peoples of other tribes and )Tj
T*
(contributed to tribal rioting. This unstable situation was intensified b\
y )Tj
T*
(the fact that in the 1963 population census returns were falsified to )Tj
T*
(inflate the Western region's population and hence its representation in \
)Tj
T*
(the Federal Government. The Ibos of the Eastern region, with the oil )Tj
T*
(resources of the country, felt their resources would be unjustly drawn o\
n )Tj
T*
(and attempted to establish their independence. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Pakistan-India-Bangladesh 1970-71)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. This religious and nationalistic )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(conflict contains several points where a population factor at a crucial \
)Tj
T*
(time may have had a causal effect in turning events away from peaceful )Tj
T*
(solutions to violence. The Central Government in West Pakistan resorted \
to )Tj
T*
(military suppression of the East Wing after the election in which the )Tj
T*
(Awami League had an overwhelming victory in East Pakistan. This election\
)Tj
T*
(had followed two sets of circumstances. The first was a growing disconte\
nt )Tj
T*
(in East Pakistan at the slow rate of economic and social progress being \
)Tj
T*
(made and the Bengali feeling that West Pakistan was dealing unequally an\
d )Tj
T*
(unfairly with East Pakistan in the distribution of national revenues. Th\
e )Tj
T*
(first population factor was the 75 million Bengalis whom the 45 million \
)Tj
T*
(West Pakistanis sought to continue to dominate. Some observers believe )Tj
T*
(that as a recent population factor the rapid rate of population growth i\
n )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(48 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
479 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(East Pakistan seriously diminished the per capita improvement from the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(revenues made available and contributed significantly to the discontent.\
A )Tj
T*
(special aspect of the population explosion in East Pakistan \(second )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population factor\) was the fact that the dense occupation of all good )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(agricultural land forced hundreds of thousands of people to move into th\
e )Tj
T*
(obviously unsafe lowlands along the southern coast. They became victims \
of )Tj
T*
(the hurricane in 1970. An estimated 300,000 died. The Government was )Tj
T*
(unable to deal with a disaster affecting so many people. The leaders and\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(people of East Pakistan reacted vigorously to this failure of the )Tj
T*
(Government to bring help. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( It seems quite likely that these situations in which population )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(factors played an important role led to the overwhelming victory of the \
)Tj
T*
(Awami League that led the Government to resort to force in East Pakistan\
)Tj
T*
(with the massacres and rapes that followed. Other experts believe the )Tj
T*
(effects of the latter two factors were of marginal influence in the Awam\
i )Tj
T*
(League's victory. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( It further seems possible that much of the violence was stimulated \
or )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(magnified by population pressures. Two groups of Moslems had been )Tj
T*
(competing for jobs and land in East Bengal since the 1947 partition. )Tj
T*
("Biharis" are a small minority of non-Bengali Moslems who chose to )Tj
T*
(resettle in East Pakistan at that time. Their integration into Bengali )Tj
T*
(society was undoubtedly inhibited by the deteriorating living conditions\
)Tj
T*
(of the majority Bengalis. With the Pakistan army crackdown in March, 197\
1, )Tj
T*
(the Biharis cooperated with the authorities, and reportedly were able )Tj
T*
(thereby to improve their economic conditions at the expense of the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(persecuted Bengalis. When the tables were turned after independence, it \
)Tj
T*
(was the Biharis who were persecuted and whose property and jobs were )Tj
T*
(seized. It seems likely that both these outbursts of violence were induc\
ed )Tj
T*
(or enlarged by the population "complosion" factor. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The violence in East Pakistan against the Bengalis and particularly\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the Hindu minority who bore the brunt of Army repression led to the next\
)Tj
T*
(population factor, the mass migration during one year of nine or ten )Tj
T*
(million refugees into West Bengal in India. This placed a tremendous )Tj
T*
(burden on the already weak Indian economy. As one Indian leader in the )Tj
T*
(India Family Planning Program said, "The influx of nine million people )Tj
T*
(wiped out the savings of some nine million births which had been averted\
)Tj
T*
(over a period of eight years of the family planning program." )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( There were other factors in India's invasion of East Bengal, but it\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(is possible that the necessity of returning these nine or ten million )Tj
T*
(refugees to east Bengal -- getting them out of India -- may have played \
a )Tj
T*
(part in the Indian decision to invade. Certainly, in a broader sense, th\
e )Tj
T*
(threat posed by this serious, spreading instability on India's eastern )Tj
T*
(frontier -- an instability in which population factors were a major )Tj
T*
(underlying cause -- a key reason for the Indian decision. )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(49 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
480 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 751.476 Tm
( The political arrangements in the Subcontinent have changed, but al\
l )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(of the underlying population factors which influenced the dramatic acts \
of )Tj
T*
(violence that took place in 1970-71 still exist, in worsening dimensions\
, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(to influence future events. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Additional illustrations)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. Population factors also appear to have had )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(indirect causal relations, in varying degrees, on the killings in )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
T*
(Indonesia)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( in 1965-6, the communal slaughter in )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Rwanda)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( in 1961-2 and 1963-4 )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and in )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Burundi)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( in 1972, the coup in )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Uganda)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( in 1972, and the insurrection )Tj
T*
(in )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Sri Lanka)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( in 1971. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Some Potential Effects of Future Population Pressures )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Between the end of World War II and 1975 the world's population wil\
l )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(have increased about one and a half billion -- nearly one billion of tha\
t )Tj
T*
(from 1960 to the present. The rate of growth is increasing and between t\
wo )Tj
T*
(and a half and three and a half billion will be added by the year 2000, \
)Tj
T*
(depending partly on the effectiveness of population growth control )Tj
T*
(programs. This increase of the next 25 years will, of course, pyramid on\
)Tj
T*
(the great number added with such rapidity in the last 25. The population\
)Tj
T*
(factors which contributed to the political pressures and instabilities o\
f )Tj
T*
(the last decades will be multiplied. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(PRC)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( - The demographic factors of the PRC are referred to on page 79 )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(above. The Government of the PRC has made a major effort to feed its )Tj
T*
(growing population. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Cultivated farm land, at 107 million hectares, has not increased )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(significantly over the past 25 years, although farm output has )Tj
T*
(substantially kept pace with population growth through improved yields )Tj
T*
(secured by land improvement, irrigation extension, intensified cropping,\
)Tj
T*
(and rapid expansion in the supply of fertilizers. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In 1973 the PRC adopted new, forceful population control measures. \
In )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the urban areas Peking claimed its birth control measures had secured a \
)Tj
T*
(two-child family and a one percent annual population growth, and it )Tj
T*
(proposes to extend this development throughout the rural areas by 1980. \
)Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The political implications of China's future population growth are \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(obviously important but are not dealt with here. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Israel and the Arab States)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. If a peace settlement can be reached, the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(central issue will be how to make it last. Egypt with about 37 million )Tj
T*
(today is growing at 2.8% per year. It will approximate 48 million by 198\
5, )Tj
T*
(75 million by 1995, and more than 85 million by 2000. It is doubtful tha\
t )Tj
T*
(Egypt's economic progress can greatly exceed its population growth. With\
)Tj
T*
(Israel starting at today's population of 3.3 million, the disparity )Tj
T*
(between its population and those of the Arab States will rapidly increas\
e. )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(50 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
481 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 755.7419 Tm
(Inside Israel, unless Jewish immigration continues, the gap between the \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(size of the Arab and Jewish populations will diminish. Together with the\
)Tj
T*
(traditional animosities -- which will remain the prime determinants of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Arab-Israeli conflict -- these population factors make the potential for\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(peace and for U.S. interests in the area ominous. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(India-Bangladesh)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. The Subcontinent will be for years the major focus )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(of world concern over population growth. India's population is now )Tj
T*
(approximately 580 million, adding a million by each full moon. Embassy N\
ew )Tj
T*
(Delhi \(New Delhi 2115, June 17, 1974\) reports: )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
("There seems no way of turning off the faucet this side of 1 )Tj
T*
(billion Indians, which means India must continue to court )Tj
T*
(economic and social disaster. It is not clear how the shaky and )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(slow-growing Indian economy can bear the enormous expenditures )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(on health, housing, employment, and education, which must be )Tj
T*
(made if the society is even to maintain its current low levels." )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( Death rates have recently increased in parts of India and episodes \
)Tj
T*
(like the recent smallpox epidemic have led Embassy New Delhi to add: )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
("A future failure of the India food crop could cause widespread )Tj
T*
(death and suffering which could not be overcome by the GOI or )Tj
T*
(foreign assistance. The rise in the death rate in several rural )Tj
T*
(areas suggests that Malthusian pressures are already being )Tj
T*
(felt." )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( And further: )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
("Increasing political disturbances should be expected in the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(future, fed by the pressures of rising population in urban )Tj
T*
(areas, food shortages, and growing scarcities in household )Tj
T*
(commodities. The GOI has not been very successful in alleviating )Tj
T*
(unemployment in the cities. The recent disturbances in Gujarat )Tj
T*
(and Bihar seem to be only the beginning of chronic and serious )Tj
T*
(political disorders occurring throughout India." )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( There will probably be a weakening, possibly a breakdown, of the )Tj
T*
(control of the central government over some of the states and local area\
s. )Tj
T*
(The democratic system will be taxed and may be in danger of giving way t\
o )Tj
T*
(a form of dictatorship, benevolent or otherwise. The existence of India \
as )Tj
T*
(a democratic buttress in Asia will be threatened. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Bangladesh)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(, with appalling population density, rapid population )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(growth, and extensive poverty will suffer even more. Its population has \
)Tj
T*
(increased 40% since the census 13 years ago and is growing at least 3% p\
er )Tj
T*
(year. The present 75 million, or so, unless slowed by famine, disease, o\
r )Tj
T*
(massive birth control, will double in 23 years and exceed 170 million by\
)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(51 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
482 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(2000. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Requirements for food and other basic necessities of life are growi\
ng )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(at a faster rate than existing resources and administrative systems are \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(providing them. In the rural areas, the size of the average farm is bein\
g )Tj
T*
(reduced and there is increasing landlessness. More and more people are )Tj
T*
(migrating to urban areas. The government admits a 30% rate of unemployme\
nt )Tj
T*
(and underemployment. Already, Embassy Dacca reports \(Dacca 3424, June 1\
9, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(1974\) there are important economic-population causes for the landlessne\
ss )Tj
T*
(that is rapidly increasing and contributing to violent crimes of murder \
)Tj
T*
(and armed robbery that terrorize the ordinary citizen. )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
("Some of the vast army of unemployed and landless, and those )Tj
T*
(strapped by the escalating cost of basic commodities, have )Tj
T*
(doubtless turned to crime." )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( Three paragraphs of Embassy Dacca's report sharply outline the effe\
ct )Tj
T*
(on U.S. political interests we may anticipate from population factors in\
)Tj
T*
(Bangladesh and other countries that, if present trends are not changed, \
)Tj
T*
(will be in conditions similar to Bangladesh in only a few years. )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
("Of concern to the U.S. are several probable outcomes as the )Tj
T*
(basic political, economic and social situation worsens over the )Tj
T*
(coming decades. Already afflicted with a crisis mentality by )Tj
T*
(which they look to wealthy foreign countries to shore up their )Tj
T*
(faltering economy, the BDG will continue to escalate its demands )Tj
T*
(on the U.S. both bilaterally and internationally to enlarge its )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(assistance, both of commodities and financing. Bangladesh is now )Tj
T*
(a fairly solid supporter of third world positions, advocating )Tj
T*
(better distribution of the world's wealth and extensive trade )Tj
T*
(concessions to poor nations. As its problems grow and its )Tj
T*
(ability to gain assistance fails to keep pace, Bangladesh's )Tj
T*
(positions on international issues likely will become )Tj
T*
(radicalized, inevitably in opposition to U.S. interests on major )Tj
T*
(issues as it seeks to align itself with others to force adequate )Tj
T*
(aid. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
("U.S. interests in Bangladesh center on the development of an )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(economically and politically stable country which will not )Tj
T*
(threaten the stability of its neighbors in the Subcontinent nor )Tj
T*
(invite the intrusion of outside powers. Surrounded on three )Tj
T*
(sides by India and sharing a short border with Burma, )Tj
T*
(Bangladesh, if it descends into chaos, will threaten the )Tj
T*
(stability of these nations as well. Already Bengalis are )Tj
T*
(illegally migrating into the frontier provinces of Assam and )Tj
T*
(Tripura, politically sensitive areas of India, and into adjacent )Tj
T*
(Burma. Should expanded out-migration and socio-political )Tj
T*
(collapse in Bangladesh threaten its own stability, India may be )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(52 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
483 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 756.2309 Tm
(forced to consider intervention, although it is difficult to see )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(in what way the Indians could cope with the situation. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
("Bangladesh is a case study of the effects of few resources and )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(burgeoning population not only on national and regional )Tj
T*
(stability but also on the future world order. In a sense, if we )Tj
T*
(and other richer elements of the world community do not meet the )Tj
T*
(test of formulating a policy to help Bangladesh awaken from its )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(economic and demographic nightmare, we will not be prepared in )Tj
T*
(future decades to deal with the consequences of similar problems )Tj
T*
(in other countries which have far more political and economic )Tj
T*
(consequences to U.S. interests." )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Africa -- Sahel Countries)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. The current tragedy of the Sahel )Tj
T*
(countries, to which U.S. aid in past years has been minimal, has suddenl\
y )Tj
T*
(cost us an immense effort in food supplies at a time when we are already\
)Tj
T*
(hard pressed to supply other countries, and domestic food prices are )Tj
T*
(causing strong political repercussions in the U.S. The costs to us and )Tj
T*
(other donor countries for aid to help restore the devastated land will r\
un )Tj
T*
(into hundreds of millions. Yet little attention is given to the fact tha\
t )Tj
T*
(even before the adverse effect of the continued drought, it was populati\
on )Tj
T*
(growth and added migration of herdsmen to the edge of the desert that le\
d )Tj
T*
(to cutting the trees and cropping the grass, inviting the desert to swee\
p )Tj
T*
(forward. Control of population growth and migration must be a part of an\
y )Tj
T*
(program for improvement of lasting value. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Panama)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. The troublesome problem of jurisdiction over the Canal Zone )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(is primarily due to Panamanian feelings of national pride and a desire t\
o )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(achieve sovereignty over its entire territory. One Panamanian agreement \
in )Tj
T*
(pursuing its treaty goals is that U.S. control over the Canal Zone )Tj
T*
(prevents the natural expansion of Panama City, an expansion needed as a \
)Tj
T*
(result of demographic pressures. In 1908, at the time of the constructio\
n )Tj
T*
(of the Canal, the population of the Zone was about 40,000. Today it is )Tj
T*
(close to the same figure, 45,000. On the other hand, Panama City, which \
)Tj
T*
(had some 20,000 people in 1908, has received growing migration from rura\
l )Tj
T*
(areas and now has over 500,000. A new treaty which would give Panama )Tj
T*
(jurisdiction over land now in the Zone would help alleviate the problems\
)Tj
T*
(caused by this growth of Panama City. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Mexico and the U.S.)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( Closest to home, the combined population growth )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(of Mexico and the U.S. Southwest presages major difficulties for the )Tj
T*
(future. Mexico's population is growing at some 3.5% per year and will )Tj
T*
(double in 20 years with concomitant increases in demands for food, )Tj
T*
(housing, education, and employment. By 1995, the present 57 million will\
)Tj
T*
(have increased to some 115 million and, unless their recently establishe\
d )Tj
T*
(family planning program has great success, by 2000 will exceed 130 )Tj
T*
(million. More important, the numbers of young people entering the job )Tj
T*
(market each year will expand even more quickly. These growing numbers wi\
ll )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(53 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
484 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(increase the pressure of illegal emigration to the U.S., and make the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(issue an even more serious source of friction in our political relations\
)Tj
T*
(with Mexico. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( On our side, the Bureau of the Census estimates that as more and mo\
re )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Americans move to the Southwestern States the present 40,000,000 )Tj
T*
(population may approximate 61,000,000 by 1995. The domestic use of )Tj
T*
(Colorado River water may again have increased the salinity level in Mexi\
co )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and reopened that political issue. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Amembassy Mexico City \(Mexico 4953, June 14, 1974\) summarized the\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(influences of population factors on U.S. interests as follows: )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
("An indefinite continuation of Mexico's high population growth )Tj
T*
(rate would increasingly act as a brake on economic \(and social\) )Tj
T*
(improvement. The consequences would be noted in various ways. )Tj
T*
(Mexico could well take more radical positions in the )Tj
T*
(international scene. Illegal migration to the U.S. would )Tj
T*
(increase. In a country where unemployment and under-employment )Tj
T*
(is already high, the entry of increasing numbers into the work )Tj
T*
(force would only intensify the pressure to seek employment in )Tj
T*
(the U.S. by whatever means. Yet another consequence would be )Tj
T*
(increased demand for food imports from the U.S., especially if )Tj
T*
(the rate of growth of agricultural production continues to lag )Tj
T*
(behind the population growth rate. Finally, one cannot dismiss )Tj
T*
(the spectre of future domestic instability as a long term )Tj
T*
(consequence, should the economy, now strong, falter." )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(UNCTAD, the Special UNGA, and the UN)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. The developing countries, after )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(several years of unorganized maneuvering and erratic attacks have now )Tj
T*
(formed tight groupings in the Special Committee for Latin American )Tj
T*
(Coordination, the Organization of African States, and the Seventy-Seven.\
)Tj
T*
(As illustrated in the Declaration of Santiago and the recent Special )Tj
T*
(General Assembly, these groupings at times appear to reflect a common )Tj
T*
(desire to launch economic attacks against the United States and, to a )Tj
T*
(lesser degree, the European developed countries. A factor which is commo\
n )Tj
T*
(to all of them, which retards their development, burdens their foreign )Tj
T*
(exchange, subjects them to world prices for food, fertilizer, and )Tj
T*
(necessities of life and pushes them into disadvantageous trade relations\
)Tj
T*
(is their excessively rapid population growth. Until they are able to )Tj
T*
(overcome this problem, it is likely that their manifestations of )Tj
T*
(antagonism toward the United States in international bodies will increas\
e. )Tj
T*
(Global Factors )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In industrial nations, population growth increases demand for )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(industrial output. This over time tends to deplete national raw material\
s )Tj
T*
(resources and calls increasingly on sources of marginal profitability an\
d )Tj
T*
(foreign supplies. To obtain raw materials, industrial nations seek to )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(54 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
485 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(locate and develop external sources of supply. The potential for )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(collisions of interest among the developing countries is obvious and has\
)Tj
T*
(already begun. It is visible and vexing in claims for territorial waters\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and national sovereignty over mineral resources. It may become intense i\
n )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(rivalries over exploring and exploiting the resources of the ocean floor\
. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In developing countries, the burden of population factors, added to\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(others, will weaken unstable governments, often only marginally effectiv\
e )Tj
T*
(in good times, and open the way for extremist regimes. Countries sufferi\
ng )Tj
T*
(under such burdens will be more susceptible to radicalization. Their )Tj
T*
(vulnerability also might invite foreign intervention by stronger nations\
)Tj
T*
(bent on acquiring political and economic advantage. The tensions within \
)Tj
T*
(the Have-not nations are likely to intensify, and the conflicts between \
)Tj
T*
(them and the Haves may escalate. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Past experience gives little assistance to predicting the course of\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(these developments because the speed of today's population growth, )Tj
T*
(migrations, and urbanization far exceeds anything the world has seen )Tj
T*
(before. Moreover, the consequences of such population factors can no )Tj
T*
(longer be evaded by moving to new hunting or grazing lands, by conquerin\
g )Tj
T*
(new territory, by discovering or colonizing new continents, or by )Tj
T*
(emigration in large numbers. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The world has ample warning that we all must make more rapid effort\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(at social and economic development to avoid or mitigate these gloomy )Tj
T*
(prospects. We should be warned also that we all must move as rapidly as \
)Tj
T*
(possible toward stabilizing national and world population growth. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(CHAPTER VI - WORLD POPULATION CONFERENCE )Tj
T*
( From the standpoint of policy and program, the focal point of the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(World Population Conference \(WPC\) at Bucharest, Romania, in August 197\
4, )Tj
T*
(was the World Population Plan of Action \(WPPA\). The U.S. had contribut\
ed )Tj
T*
(many substantive points to the draft Plan. We had particularly emphasize\
d )Tj
T*
(the incorporation of population factors in national planning of developi\
ng )Tj
T*
(countries' population programs for assuring the availability of means of\
)Tj
T*
(family planning to persons of reproductive age, voluntary but specific )Tj
T*
(goals for the reduction of population growth and time frames for action.\
)Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( As the WPPA reached the WPC it was organized as a demographic )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(document. It also related population factors to family welfare, social a\
nd )Tj
T*
(economic development, and fertility reduction. Population policies and )Tj
T*
(programs were recognized as an essential element, but only one element o\
f )Tj
T*
(economic and social development programs. The sovereignty of nations in \
)Tj
T*
(determining their own population policies and programs was repeatedly )Tj
T*
(recognized. The general impression after five regional consultative )Tj
T*
(meetings on the Plan was that it had general support. )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(55 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
486 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
( There was general consternation, therefore, when at the beginning o\
f )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the conference the Plan was subjected to a slashing, five-pronged attack\
)Tj
T*
(led by Algeria, with the backing of several African countries; Argentina\
, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(supported by Uruguay, Brazil, Peru and, more limitedly, some other Latin\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(American countries; the Eastern European group \(less Romania\); the PRC\
and )Tj
T*
(the Holy See. Although the attacks were not identical, they embraced thr\
ee )Tj
T*
(central elements relevant to U.S. policy and action in this field: )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 1.Repeated references to the importance \(or as some said, the pre-\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(condition\) of economic and social development for the reduction of high\
)Tj
T*
(fertility. Led by Algeria and Argentina, many emphasized the "new )Tj
T*
(international economic order" as central to economic and social )Tj
T*
(development. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 2.Efforts to reduce the references to population programs, minimize\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(their importance and delete all references to quantitative or time goals\
. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 3.Additional references to national sovereignty in setting populati\
on )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(policies and programs. )Tj
17.1 -2.557 Td
(The Plan of Action )Tj
-17.1 -2.557 Td
( Despite the initial attack and continuing efforts to change the )Tj
T*
(conceptual basis of the world Population Plan of Action, the Conference \
)Tj
T*
(adopted by acclamation \(only the Holy See stating a general reservation\
\) a )Tj
T*
(complete World Population Plan of Action. It is less urgent in tone than\
)Tj
T*
(the draft submitted by the U.N. Secretariat but in several ways more )Tj
T*
(complete and with greater potential than that draft. The final action )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(followed a vigorous debate with hotly contested positions and forty-seve\
n )Tj
T*
(votes. Nevertheless, there was general satisfaction among the participan\
ts )Tj
T*
(at the success of their efforts. )Tj
15.9 -2.557 Td
(a. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Principles and Aims)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( )Tj
-15.9 -2.557 Td
( The Plan of Action lays down several important principles, some for\
)Tj
T*
(the first time in a U.N. document. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 1. Among the first-time statements is the assertion that the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(sovereign right of each nation to set its own population policies is "to\
)Tj
T*
(be exercised ... taking into account universal solidarity in order to )Tj
T*
(improve the quality of life of the peoples of the world." \(Para 13\) Th\
is )Tj
T*
(new provision opens the way toward increasing responsibility by nations \
)Tj
T*
(toward other nations in establishing their national population policies.\
)Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 2. The conceptual relationship between population and development i\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(stated in Para 13\(c\): )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
(Population and development are interrelated: population )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(56 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
487 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 756.2309 Tm
(variables influence development variables and are also )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(influenced by them; the formulation of a World Population Plan )Tj
T*
(of Action reflects the international community's awareness of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the importance of population trends for socio-economic )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(development, and the socio-economic nature of the )Tj
T*
(recommendations contained in this Plan of Action reflects its )Tj
T*
(awareness of the crucial role that development plays in )Tj
T*
(affecting population trends. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( 3. A basic right of couples and individuals is recognized by Para 1\
3)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(\(f\), for the first time in a single declarative sentence: )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
(All couples and individuals have the basic human right to decide )Tj
T*
(freely and responsibly the number and spacing of their children )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and to have the information, education and means to do so; )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( 4. Also for the first time, a U.N. document links the responsibilit\
y )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(of child-bearers to the community [Para 13\(f\) continued]: )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
(The responsibility of couples and individuals in the exercise of )Tj
T*
(this right takes into account the needs of their living and )Tj
T*
(future children, and their responsibilities towards the )Tj
T*
(community. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
(It is now possible to build on this newly-stated principle as the right \
of )Tj
T*
(couples first recognized in the Tehran Human Rights Declaration of 1968 \
)Tj
T*
(has been built on. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 5. A flat declaration of the right of women is included in Para 13)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(\(h\): )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
(Women have the right to complete integration in the development )Tj
T*
(process particularly by means of an equal participation in )Tj
T*
(educational, social, economic, cultural and political life. In )Tj
T*
(addition, the necessary measures should be taken to facilitate )Tj
T*
(this integration with family responsibilities which should be )Tj
T*
(fully shared by both partners. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( 6. The need for international action is accepted in Para 13\(k\): )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
(The growing interdependence of countries makes the adoption of )Tj
T*
(measures at the international level increasingly important for )Tj
T*
(the solution of problems of development and population problems. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( 7. The "primary aim" of the Plan of Action is asserted to be "to )Tj
T*
(expand and deepen the capacities of countries to deal effectively with )Tj
T*
(their national and subnational population problems and to promote an )Tj
T*
(appropriate international response to their needs by increasing )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(57 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
488 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(international activity in research, the exchange of information, and the\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(provision of assistance on request." )Tj
17.1 -2.557 Td
(b. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Recommendations)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( )Tj
-17.1 -2.557 Td
( The Plan of Action includes recommendations for: population goals a\
nd )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(policies; population growth; mortality and morbidity; reproduction; fami\
ly )Tj
T*
(formation and the status of women; population distribution and internal \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(migration; international migration; population structure; socio-economic\
)Tj
T*
(policies; data collection and analysis; research; development and )Tj
T*
(evolution of population policies; the role of national governments and o\
f )Tj
T*
(international cooperation; and monitoring, review and appraisal. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( A score of these recommendations are the most important: )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 1. Governments should integrate population measures and programs in\
to )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(comprehensive social and economic plans and programs and their integrati\
on )Tj
T*
(should be reflected in the goals, instrumentalities and organizations fo\
r )Tj
T*
(planning within the countries. A unit dealing with population aspects )Tj
T*
(should be created and placed at a high level of the national )Tj
T*
(administrative structure. \(Para 94\) )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 2. Countries which consider their population growth hampers )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(attainment of their goals should consider adopting population policies -\
- )Tj
T*
(through a low level of birth and death rates. \(Para 17, 18\) )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 3. Highest priority should be given to reduction in mortality and )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(morbidity and increase of life expectancy and programs for this purpose \
)Tj
T*
(should reach rural areas and underprivileged groups. \(Para 20-25\) )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 4. Countries are urged to encourage appropriate education concernin\
g )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(responsible parenthood and make available to persons who so desire advic\
e )Tj
T*
(and means of achieving it. [Para 29\(b\)] )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 5. Family planning and related services should aim at prevention of\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(unwanted pregnancies and also at elimination of involuntary sterility or\
)Tj
T*
(subfecundity to enable couples to achieve their desired number of )Tj
T*
(children. [Para 29 \(c\)] )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 6. Adequately trained auxiliary personnel, social workers and non-)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(government channels should be used to help provide family planning )Tj
T*
(services. [Para 29\(e\)] )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 7. Governments with family planning programs should consider )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(coordinating them with health and other services designed to raise the )Tj
T*
(quality of life. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 8. Countries wishing to affect fertility levels should give priorit\
y )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(58 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
489 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 754.6598 Tm
(to development programs and health and education strategies which have a\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(decisive effect upon demographic trends, including fertility. [Para 31] \
)Tj
T*
(International cooperation should give priority to assisting such nationa\
l )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(efforts. Such programs may include reduction in infant and child )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(mortality, increased education, particularly for females, improvement in\
)Tj
T*
(the status of women, land reform and support in old age. [Para 32] )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 9. Countries which consider their birth rates detrimental to their \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(national purposes are invited to set quantitative goals and implement )Tj
T*
(policies to achieve them by 1985. [Para 37] )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 10. Developed countries are urged to develop appropriate policies i\
n )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population, consumption and investment, bearing in mind the need for )Tj
T*
(fundamental improvement in international equity. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 11. Because the family is the basic unit of society, governments )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(should assist families as far as possible through legislation and )Tj
T*
(services. [Para 39] )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 12. Governments should ensure full participation of women in the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(educational, economic, social and political life of their countries on a\
n )Tj
T*
(equal basis with men. [Para 40] \(A new provision, added at Bucharest.\)\
)Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 13. A series of recommendations are made to stabilize migration )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(within countries, particularly policies to reduce the undesirable )Tj
T*
(consequences of excessively rapid urbanization and to develop )Tj
T*
(opportunities in rural areas and small towns, recognizing the right of )Tj
T*
(individuals to move freely within their national boundaries. [Para 44-50\
] )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 14. Agreements should be concluded to regulate the international )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(migration of workers and to assure non-discriminatory treatment and soci\
al )Tj
T*
(services for these workers and their families; also other measures to )Tj
T*
(decrease the brain drain from developing countries. [Para 51-62] )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 15. To assure needed information concerning population trends, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population censuses should be taken at regular intervals and information\
)Tj
T*
(concerning births and deaths be made available at least annually. [Para \
72-)Tj
T*
(77] )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 16. Research should be intensified to develop knowledge concerning \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the social, economic and political interrelationships with population )Tj
T*
(trends; effective means of reducing infant and childhood mortality; )Tj
T*
(methods for integrating population goals into national plans, means of )Tj
T*
(improving the motivation of people, analysis of population policies in )Tj
T*
(relation to socio-economic development, laws and institution; methods of\
)Tj
T*
(fertility regulation to meet the varied requirement of individuals and )Tj
T*
(communities, including methods requiring no medical supervision; the )Tj
T*
(interrelations of health, nutrition and reproductive biology; and )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(59 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
490 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(utilization of social services, including family planning services. [Par\
a )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(78-80] )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 17. Training of management on population dynamics and administratio\
n, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(on an interdisciplinary basis, should be provided for medical, )Tj
T*
(paramedical, traditional health personnel, program administrators, senio\
r )Tj
T*
(government officials, labor, community and social leaders. Education and\
)Tj
T*
(information programs should be undertaken to bring population informatio\
n )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(to all areas of countries. [Paras 81-92] )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 18. An important role of governments is to determine and assess the\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population problems and needs of their countries in the light of their )Tj
T*
(political, social, cultural, religious and economic conditions; such an \
)Tj
T*
(undertaking should be carried out systematically and periodically so as \
to )Tj
T*
(provide informed, rational and dynamic decision-making in matters of )Tj
T*
(population and development. [Para 97] )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 20. The Plan of Action should be closely coordinated with the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(International Development Strategy for the Second United Nations )Tj
T*
(Development Decade, reviewed in depth at five year intervals, and modifi\
ed )Tj
T*
(as appropriate. [Paras 106-108] )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The Plan of Action hedges in presenting specific statements of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(quantitative goals or a time frame for the reduction of fertility. These\
)Tj
T*
(concepts are included, however, in the combination of Paras 16 and 36, )Tj
T*
(together with goals [Para 37] and the review [Para 106]. Para 16 states \
)Tj
T*
(that, according to the U.N )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(low variant)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( projections, it is estimated that )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(as a result of social and economic development and population policies a\
s )Tj
T*
(reported by countries in the Second United Nations Inquiry on Population\
)Tj
T*
(and Development, population growth rates in the developing countries as \
a )Tj
T*
(whole may decline from the present level of 2.4% per annum to about 2% b\
y )Tj
T*
(1985; and below 0.7% per annum in the developed countries. In this case \
)Tj
T*
(the worldwide rate of population growth would decline from 2% to about )Tj
T*
(1.7%. Para 36 says that these projections and those for mortality declin\
e )Tj
T*
(are consistent with declines in the birth rate of the developing countri\
es )Tj
T*
(as a whole from the present level of 38 per thousand to 30 per thousand \
by )Tj
T*
(1985. Para 36 goes on to say that "To achieve by 1985 these levels of )Tj
T*
(fertility would require substantial national efforts, by those countries\
)Tj
T*
(concerned, in the field of socio-economic development and population )Tj
T*
(policies, supported, upon request, by adequate international assistance.\
" )Tj
T*
(Para 37 then follows with the statement that countries which consider )Tj
T*
(their birth rates detrimental to their national purposes are invited to \
)Tj
T*
(consider setting quantitative goals and implementing policies that may )Tj
T*
(lead to the attainment of such goals by 1985. Para 106 recommends a )Tj
T*
(comprehensive review and appraisal of population trends and policies )Tj
T*
(discussed in the Plan of Action should be undertaken every five years an\
d )Tj
T*
(modified, wherever needed, by ECOSOC. )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(60 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
491 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 187.1376 756.2309 Tm
(Usefulness of the Plan of Action )Tj
-12.9 -2.557 Td
( The World Population Plan of Action, despite its wordiness and ofte\
n )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(hesitant tone, contains all the necessary provisions for effective )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population growth control programs at national and international levels.\
)Tj
T*
(It lacks only plain statements of quantitative goals with time frames fo\
r )Tj
T*
(their accomplishment. These will have to be added by individual national\
)Tj
T*
(action and development as rapidly as possible in further U.N. documents.\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(The basis for suitable goals exists in paragraphs 16, 36, 37, and 106, )Tj
T*
(referred to above. The U.N. low variant projection used in these )Tj
T*
(paragraphs is close to the goals proposed by the United States and other\
)Tj
T*
(ECAFE nations: )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 559.1881 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 559.1881 Tm
(For developed countries - )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(replacement levels of fertility by 1985; )Tj
T*
(stationary populations as soon as practicable. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 497.8113 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 497.8113 Tm
(For developing countries - )Tj
T*
(replacement levels in two or three decades. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 451.2922 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 451.2922 Tm
(For the world - )Tj
T*
(a 1.7% population growth rate by 1985 with 2% average for the )Tj
T*
(developing countries and 0.7% average for developed countries; )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(replacement level of fertility for all countries by 2000. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( The dangerous situation evidenced by the current food situation and\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(projections for the future make it essential to press for the realizatio\
n )Tj
T*
(of these goals. The beliefs, ideologies and misconceptions displayed by \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(many nations at Bucharest indicate more forcefully than ever the need fo\
r )Tj
T*
(extensive education of the leaders of many governments, especially in )Tj
T*
(Africa and some in Latin America. Approaches leaders of individual )Tj
T*
(countries must be designed in the light of their current beliefs and to \
)Tj
T*
(meet their special concerns. These might include: )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 1. Projections of population growth individualized for countries an\
d )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(with analyses of relations of population factors to social and economic \
)Tj
T*
(development of each country. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 2. Familiarization programs at U.N. Headquarters in New York for )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(ministers of governments, senior policy level officials and comparably )Tj
T*
(influential leaders from private life. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 3. Greatly increased training programs for senior officials in the \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(elements of demographic economics. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 4. Assistance in integrating population factors in national plans, \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(particularly as they relate to health services, education, agricultural \
)Tj
T*
(resources and development, employment, equitable distribution of income \
)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(61 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
492 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(and social stability. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 5. Assistance in relating population policies and family planning )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(programs to major sectors of development: health, nutrition, agriculture\
, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(education, social services, organized labor, women's activities, communi\
ty )Tj
T*
(development. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 6. Initiatives to implement the Percy amendment regarding improveme\
nt )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(in the status of women. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 7. Emphasis in assistance and development programs on development o\
f )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(rural areas. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( All these activities and others particularly productive are )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(consistent with the Plan of Action and may be based upon it. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Beyond these activities, essentially directed at national interests\
, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(a broader educational concept is needed to convey an acute understanding\
)Tj
T*
(of the interrelation of national interests and world population growth. \
)Tj
0 -2.457 TD
( )Tj
0 -1 TD
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
17.7 -1.1 Td
(P A R T T W O )Tj
-1.8 -2.557 Td
(Policy Recommendations )Tj
-15.9 -2.457 Td
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
T*
( )Tj
0 -1.1 TD
(I. Introduction - A U.S. Global Population Strategy )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( There is no simple single approach to the population problem which \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(will provide a "technological fix." As the previous analysis makes clear\
)Tj
T*
(the problem of population growth has social, economic and technological \
)Tj
T*
(aspects all of which must be understood and dealt with for a world )Tj
T*
(population policy to succeed. With this in mind, the following broad )Tj
T*
(recommended strategy provides a framework for the development of specifi\
c )Tj
T*
(individual programs which must be tailored to the needs and )Tj
T*
(particularities of each country and of different sectors of the populati\
on )Tj
T*
(within a country. Essentially all its recommendations made below are )Tj
T*
(supported by the World Population Plan of action drafted at the World )Tj
T*
(Population Conference. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(A. Basic Global Strategy )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(62 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
493 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 737.3257 Tm
( The following basic elements are necessary parts of a comprehensive\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(approach to the population problem which must include both bilateral and\
)Tj
T*
(multilateral components to achieve success. Thus, USG population )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(assistance programs will need to be coordinated with those of the major \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(multilateral institutions, voluntary organizations, and other bilateral \
)Tj
T*
(donors. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The common strategy for dealing with rapid population growth should\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(encourage constructive actions to lower fertility since population growt\
h )Tj
T*
(over the years will seriously negate reasonable prospects for the sound \
)Tj
T*
(social and economic development of the peoples involved. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( While the time horizon in this NSSM is the year 2000 we must )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(recognize that in most countries, especially the LDCs, population )Tj
T*
(stability cannot be achieved until the next century. There are too many \
)Tj
T*
(powerful socio-economic factors operating on family size decisions and t\
oo )Tj
T*
(much momentum built into the dynamics of population growth to permit a )Tj
T*
(quick and dramatic reversal of current trends. There is also even less )Tj
T*
(cause for optimism on the rapidity of socio-economic progress that would\
)Tj
T*
(generate rapid fertility reduction in the poor LDCs than on the )Tj
T*
(feasibility of extending family planning services to those in their )Tj
T*
(populations who may wish to take advantage of them. Thus, at this point \
we )Tj
T*
(cannot know with certainty when world population can feasibly be )Tj
T*
(stabilized, nor can we state with assurance the limits of the world's )Tj
T*
(ecological "carrying capability". But we can be certain of the desirable\
)Tj
T*
(direction of change and can state as a plausible objective the target of\
)Tj
T*
(achieving replacement fertility rates by the year 2000. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Over the past few years, U.S. government-funded population programs\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(have played a major role in arousing interest in family planning in many\
)Tj
T*
(countries, and in launching and accelerating the growth of national fami\
ly )Tj
T*
(planning programs. In most countries, there has been an initial rapid )Tj
T*
(growth in contraceptive "acceptors" up to perhaps 10% of fertile couples\
)Tj
T*
(in a few LDCs. The acceleration of previous trends of fertility decline \
is )Tj
T*
(attributable, at least in part, to family planning programs. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( However, there is growing appreciation that the problem is more lon\
g )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(term and complex than first appeared and that a short term burst of )Tj
T*
(activity or moral fervor will not solve it. The danger in this realizati\
on )Tj
T*
(is that the U.S. might abandon its commitment to assisting in the world'\
s )Tj
T*
(population problem, rather than facing up to it for the long-run difficu\
lt )Tj
T*
(problem that it is. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( From year to year we are learning more about what kind of fertility\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(reduction is feasible in differing LDC situations. Given the laws of )Tj
T*
(compound growth, even comparatively small reductions in fertility over t\
he )Tj
T*
(next decade will make a significant difference in total numbers by the )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(63 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
494 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(year 2000, and a far more significant one by the year 2050. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The proposed strategy calls for a coordinated approach to respond t\
o )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the important U.S. foreign policy interest in the influence of populatio\
n )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(growth on the world's political, economic and ecological systems. What i\
s )Tj
T*
(unusual about population is that this foreign policy interest must have \
a )Tj
T*
(time horizon far beyond that of most other objectives. While there are )Tj
T*
(strong short-run reasons for population programs, because of such factor\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(as food supply, pressures on social service budgets, urban migration and\
)Tj
T*
(social and political instability, the major impact of the benefits - or \
)Tj
T*
(avoidance of catastrophe - that could be accomplished by a strengthened \
U.)Tj
T*
(S. commitment in the population area will be felt less by those of us in\
)Tj
T*
(the U.S. and other countries today than by our children and grandchildre\
n. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(B. Ppriorities in U.S. and Multilateral Population Assistance )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( One issue in any global population strategy is the degree of emphas\
is )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(in allocation of program resources among countries. The options availabl\
e )Tj
T*
(range from heavy concentration on a few vital large countries to a )Tj
T*
(geographically diverse program essentially involving all countries willi\
ng )Tj
T*
(to accept such assistance. All agencies believe the following policy )Tj
T*
(provides the proper overall balance. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In order to assist the development of major countries and to maximi\
ze )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(progress toward population stability, primary emphasis would be placed o\
n )Tj
T*
(the largest and fastest growing developing countries where the imbalance\
)Tj
T*
(between growing numbers and development potential most seriously risks )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(instability, unrest, and international tensions. These countries are: )Tj
T*
(India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, Mexico, Indonesia, Brazil, The )Tj
T*
(Philippines, Thailand, Egypt, Turkey, Ethiopia, and Colombia. Out of a )Tj
T*
(total 73.3 million worldwide average increase in population from 1970-75\
)Tj
T*
(these countries contributed 34.3 million or 47%. This group of priority \
)Tj
T*
(countries includes some with virtually no government interest in family \
)Tj
T*
(planning and others with active government family planning programs whic\
h )Tj
T*
(require and would welcome enlarged technical and financial assistance. )Tj
T*
(These countries should be given the highest priority within AID's )Tj
T*
(population program in terms of resource allocations and/or leadership )Tj
T*
(efforts to encourage action by other donors and organizations. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( However, other countries would not be ignored. AID would provide )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population assistance and/or undertake leadership efforts with respect t\
o )Tj
T*
(other, lower priority countries to the extent that the availability of )Tj
T*
(funds and staff permits, taking into account of such factors as : long r\
un )Tj
T*
(U.S. political interests; impact of rapid population growth on its )Tj
T*
(development potential; the country's relative contribution to world )Tj
T*
(population growth; its financial capacity to cope with the problem; )Tj
T*
(potential impact on domestic unrest and international frictions \(which \
can )Tj
T*
(apply to small as well as large countries\); its significance as a test \
or )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(64 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
495 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(demonstration case; and opportunities for expenditures that appear )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(particularly cost-effective \(e.g. it has been suggested that there may \
be )Tj
T*
(particularly cost-effective opportunities for supporting family planning\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(to reduce the lag between mortality and fertility declines in countries \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(where death rates are still declining rapidly\); national commitment to \
an )Tj
T*
(effective program. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( For both the high priority countries and the lower priority ones to\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(which funds and staff permit aid, the form and content of our assistance\
)Tj
T*
(or leadership efforts would vary from country to country, depending on )Tj
T*
(each nation's particular interests, needs, and receptivity to various )Tj
T*
(forms of assistance. For example, if these countries are receptive to U.\
S. )Tj
T*
(assistance through bilateral or central AID funding, we should provide )Tj
T*
(such assistance at levels commensurate with the recipient's capability t\
o )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(finance needed actions with its own funds, the contributions of other )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(donors and organizations, and the effectiveness with which funds can be \
)Tj
T*
(used. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In countries where U.S. assistance is limited either by the nature \
of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(political or diplomatic relations with those countries or by lack of )Tj
T*
(strong government desire. In population reduction programs, external )Tj
T*
(technical and financial assistance \(if desired by the countries\) would\
)Tj
T*
(have to come from other donors and/or from private and international )Tj
T*
(organizations, many of which receive contributions from AID. The USG )Tj
T*
(would, however, maintain an interest \(e.g. through Embassies\) in such \
)Tj
T*
(countries' population problems and programs \(if any\) to reduce populat\
ion )Tj
T*
(growth rates. Moreover, particularly in the case of high priority )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(countries, we should be alert to opportunities for expanding our )Tj
T*
(assistance efforts and for demonstrating to their leaders the consequenc\
es )Tj
T*
(of rapid population growth and the benefits of actions to reduce )Tj
T*
(fertility. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In countries to which other forms of U.S. assistance are provided b\
ut )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(not population assistance, AID will monitor progress toward achievement \
of )Tj
T*
(development objectives, taking into account the extent to which these ar\
e )Tj
T*
(hindered by rapid population growth, and will look for opportunities to \
)Tj
T*
(encourage initiation of or improvement in population policies and )Tj
T*
(programs. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In addition, the U.S. strategy should support in these LDC countrie\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(general activities \(e.g. bio-medical research or fertility control )Tj
T*
(methods\) capable of achieving major breakthroughs in key problems which\
)Tj
T*
(hinder reductions in population growth. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(C. Instruments and Modalities for Population Assistance )Tj
T*
( Bilateral population assistance is the largest and most invisible )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
("instrument" for carrying out U.S. policy in this area. Other instrument\
s )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(65 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
496 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(include: support for and coordination with population programs of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(multilateral organizations and voluntary agencies; encouragement of )Tj
T*
(multilateral country consortia and consultative groups to emphasize fami\
ly )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(planning in reviews of overall recipient progress and aid requests; and \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(formal and informal presentation of views at international gatherings, )Tj
T*
(such as food and population conferences. Specific country strategies mus\
t )Tj
T*
(be worked out for each of the highest priority countries, and for the )Tj
T*
(lower priority ones. These strategies will take account of such factors \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(as: national attitudes and sensitivities on family planning; which )Tj
T*
("instruments" will be most acceptable, opportunities for effective use o\
f )Tj
T*
(assistance; and need of external capital or operating assistance. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( For example, in Mexico our strategy would focus on working primaril\
y )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(through private agencies and multilateral organizations to encourage mor\
e )Tj
T*
(government attention to the need for control of population growth; in )Tj
T*
(Bangladesh we might provide large-scale technical and financial )Tj
T*
(assistance, depending on the soundness of specific program requests; in \
)Tj
T*
(Indonesia we would respond to assistance requests but would seek to have\
)Tj
T*
(Indonesia meet as much of program costs from its own resources \(i.e. )Tj
T*
(surplus oil earnings\) as possible. In general we would not provide larg\
e-)Tj
T*
(scale bilateral assistance in the more developed LDCs, such as Brazil or\
)Tj
T*
(Mexico. Although these countries are in the top priority list our approa\
ch )Tj
T*
(must take account of the fact that their problems relate often to )Tj
T*
(government policies and decisions and not to larger scale need for )Tj
T*
(concessional assistance. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Within the overall array of U.S. foreign assistance programs, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(preferential treatment in allocation of funds and manpower should be giv\
en )Tj
T*
(to cost-effective programs to reduce population growth; including both )Tj
T*
(family planning activities and supportive activities in other sectors. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( While some have argued for use of explicit "leverage" to "force" )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(better population programs on LDC governments, there are several practic\
al )Tj
T*
(constraints on our efforts to achieve program improvements. Attempts to \
)Tj
T*
(use "leverage" for far less sensitive issues have generally caused )Tj
T*
(political frictions and often backfired. Successful family planning )Tj
T*
(requires strong local dedication and commitment that cannot over the lon\
g )Tj
T*
(run be enforced from the outside. There is also the danger that some LDC\
)Tj
T*
(leaders will see developed country pressures for family planning as a fo\
rm )Tj
T*
(of economic or racial imperialism; this could well create a serious )Tj
T*
(backlash. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Short of "leverage", there are many opportunities, bilaterally and \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(multilaterally, for U.S. representations to discuss and urge the need fo\
r )Tj
T*
(stronger family planning programs. There is also some established )Tj
T*
(precedent for taking account of family planning performance in appraisal\
)Tj
T*
(of assistance requirements by AID and consultative groups. Since )Tj
T*
(population growth is a major determinant of increases in food demand, )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(66 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
497 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(allocation of scarce PL 480 resources should take account of what steps \
a )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(country is taking in population control as well as food production. In )Tj
T*
(these sensitive relationships, however, it is important in style as well\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(as substance to avoid the appearance of coercion. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(D. Provision and Development of Family Planning Services, Information an\
d )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Technology )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Past experience suggests that easily available family planning )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(services are a vital and effective element in reducing fertility rates i\
n )Tj
T*
(the LDCs. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Two main advances are required for providing safe and effective )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(fertility control techniques in the developing countries: )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 1. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Expansion and further development of efficient low-cost systems to )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(assure the full availability of existing family planning services, )Tj
T*
(materials and information to the 85% of LDC populations not now )Tj
T*
(effectively reached.)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( In developing countries willing to create special )Tj
T*
(delivery systems for family planning services this may be the most )Tj
T*
(effective method. In others the most efficient and acceptable method is \
to )Tj
T*
(combine family planning with health or nutrition in multi-purpose delive\
ry )Tj
T*
(systems. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 2. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Improving the effectiveness of present means of fertility control, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and developing new technologies which are simple, low cost, effective, )Tj
T*
(safe, long-lasting and acceptable to potential users.)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( This involves both )Tj
T*
(basic developmental research and operations research to judge the utilit\
y )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(of new or modified approaches under LDC conditions. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Both of these goals should be given very high priority with necessa\
ry )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(additional funding consistent with current or adjusted divisions of labo\
r )Tj
T*
(among other donors and organizations involved in these areas of populati\
on )Tj
T*
(assistance. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(E. Creating Conditions Conducive to Fertility Decline )Tj
T*
( It is clear that the availability of contraceptive services and )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(information is not a complete answer to the population problem. In view \
of )Tj
T*
(the importance of socio-economic factors in determining desired family )Tj
T*
(size, overall assistance strategy should increasingly concentrate on )Tj
T*
(selective policies which will contribute to population decline as well a\
s )Tj
T*
(other goals. This strategy reflects the complementarity between populati\
on )Tj
T*
(control and other U.S. development objectives, particularly those relati\
ng )Tj
T*
(to AID's Congressional mandate to focus on problems of the "poor majorit\
y" )Tj
T*
(in LDC's. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( We know that certain kinds of development policies -- e.g., those )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(67 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
498 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(which provide the poor with a major share in development benefits -- bot\
h )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(promote fertility reductions and accomplish other major development )Tj
T*
(objectives. There are other policies which appear to also promote )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(fertility reduction but which may conflict with non-population objective\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(\(e.g., consider the effect of bringing a large number of women into the\
)Tj
T*
(labor force in countries and occupations where unemployment is already )Tj
T*
(high and rising\). )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( However, AID knows only approximately the relative priorities among\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the factors that affect fertility and is even further away from knowing \
)Tj
T*
(what specific cost-effective steps governments can take to affect these \
)Tj
T*
(factors. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Nevertheless, with what limited information we have, the urgency of\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(moving forward toward lower fertility rates, even without complete )Tj
T*
(knowledge of the socio-economic forces involved, suggests a three-pronge\
d )Tj
T*
(strategy: )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 1. High priority to large-scale implementation of programs affectin\
g )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the determinants of fertility in those cases where there is probable cos\
t-)Tj
T*
(effectiveness, taking account of potential impact on population growth )Tj
T*
(rates; other development benefits to be gained; ethical considerations; \
)Tj
T*
(feasibility in light of LDC bureaucratic and political concerns and )Tj
T*
(problems; and timeframe for accomplishing objectives. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 2. High priority to experimentation and pilot projects in areas whe\
re )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(there is evidence of a close relationship to fertility reduction but whe\
re )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(there are serious questions about cost-effectiveness relating either to \
)Tj
T*
(other development impact \(e.g., the female employment example cited abo\
ve\) )Tj
T*
(or to program design \(e.g., what cost-effective steps can be taken to )Tj
T*
(promote female employment or literacy\). )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 3. High priority to comparative research and evaluation on the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(relative impact on desired family size of the socio-economic determinant\
s )Tj
T*
(of fertility in general and on what policy scope exists for affecting )Tj
T*
(these determinants. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In all three cases emphasis should be given to moving action as muc\
h )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(as possible to LDC institutions and individuals rather than to involving\
U.)Tj
T*
(S. researchers on a large scale. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Activities in all three categories would receive very high priority\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(in allocation of AID funds. The largest amounts required should be in th\
e )Tj
T*
(first category and would generally not come from population funds. )Tj
T*
(However, since such activities \(e.g., in rural development and basic )Tj
T*
(education\) coincide with other AID sectoral priorities, sound project )Tj
T*
(requests from LDC's will be placed close to the top in AID's funding )Tj
T*
(priorities \(assuming that they do not conflict with other major )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(68 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
499 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(development and other foreign policy objectives\). )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The following areas appear to contain significant promise in )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(effecting fertility declines, and are discussed in subsequent sections. \
)Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 678.0506 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 678.0506 Tm
(providing minimal levels of education especially for women; )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 663.1928 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 663.1928 Tm
(reducing infant and child mortality; )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 648.335 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 648.335 Tm
(expanding opportunities for wage employment especially for women; )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 633.4772 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 633.4772 Tm
(developing alternatives to "social security" support provided by )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(children to aging parents; )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 603.7616 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 603.7616 Tm
(pursuing development strategies that skew income growth toward the )Tj
T*
(poor, especially rural development focusing on rural poverty; )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 574.0459 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 574.0459 Tm
(concentrating on the education and indoctrination of the rising )Tj
T*
(generation of children regarding the desirability of smaller family )Tj
T*
(size. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( The World Population Plan of Action includes a provision \(paragrap\
h )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(31\) that countries trying for effective fertility levels should give )Tj
T*
(priority to development programs and health and education strategies whi\
ch )Tj
T*
(have a decisive effect upon demographic trends, including fertility. It \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(calls for international information to give priority to assisting such )Tj
T*
(national efforts. Programs suggested \(paragraph 32\) are essentially th\
e )Tj
T*
(same as those listed above. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Food is another of special concern in any population strategy. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Adequate food stocks need to be created to provide for periods of severe\
)Tj
T*
(shortages and LDC food production efforts must be reenforced to meet )Tj
T*
(increased demand resulting from population and income growth. U.S. )Tj
T*
(agricultural production goals should take account of the normal import )Tj
T*
(requirements of LDC's \(as well as developed countries\) and of likely )Tj
T*
(occasional crop failures in major parts of the LDC world. Without improv\
ed )Tj
T*
(food security, there will be pressure leading to possible conflict and t\
he )Tj
T*
(desire for large families for "insurance" purposes, thus undermining oth\
er )Tj
T*
(development and population control efforts. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(F. Development of World-Wide Political and Popular Commitment to )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Population Stabilization and Its Associated Improvement of Individual )Tj
T*
(Quality of Life. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( A fundamental element in any overall strategy to deal with the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population problem is obtaining the support and commitment of key leader\
s )Tj
T*
(in the developing countries. This is only possible if they can clearly s\
ee )Tj
T*
(the negative impact of unrestricted population growth in their countries\
)Tj
T*
(and the benefits of reducing birth rates - and if they believe it is )Tj
T*
(possible to cope with the population problem through instruments of publ\
ic )Tj
T*
(policy. Since most high officials are in office for relatively short )Tj
T*
(periods, they have to see early benefits or the value of longer term )Tj
T*
(statesmanship. In each specific case, individual leaders will have to )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(69 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
500 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(approach their population problems within the context of their country's\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(values, resources, and existing priorities. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Therefore, it is vital that leaders of major LDCs themselves take t\
he )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(lead in advancing family planning and population stabilization, not only\
)Tj
T*
(within the U.N. and other international organizations but also through )Tj
T*
(bilateral contacts with leaders of other LDCs. Reducing population growt\
h )Tj
T*
(in LDCs should not be advocated exclusively by the developed countries. \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(The U.S. should encourage such a role as opportunities appear in its hig\
h )Tj
T*
(level contact with LDC leaders. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The most recent forum for such an effort was the August 1974 U.N. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(World Population Conference. It was an ideal context to focus concerted \
)Tj
T*
(world attention on the problem. The debate views and highlights of the )Tj
T*
(World Population Plan of action are reviewed in Chapter VI. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The U.S. strengthened its credibility as an advocate of lower )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population growth rates by explaining that, while it did not have a sing\
le )Tj
T*
(written action population policy, it did have legislation, Executive )Tj
T*
(Branch policies and court decisions that amounted to a national policy a\
nd )Tj
T*
(that our national fertility level was already below replacement and seem\
ed )Tj
T*
(likely to attain a stable population by 2000. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The U.S. also proposed to )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(join)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( with other developed countries in an )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(international collaborative effort of research in human reproduction and\
)Tj
T*
(fertility control covering bio-medical and socio-economic factors. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The U.S. further offered to collaborate with other interested donor\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(countries and organizations \(e.g., WHO, UNFPA, World Bank, UNICEF\) to \
)Tj
T*
(encourage further action by LDC governments and other institutions to )Tj
T*
(provide low-cost, basic preventive health services, including maternal a\
nd )Tj
T*
(child health and family planning services, reaching out into the remote \
)Tj
T*
(rural areas. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The U.S. delegation also said the U.S. would request from the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Congress increased U.S. bilateral assistance to population-family planni\
ng )Tj
T*
(programs, and additional amounts for essential functional activities and\
)Tj
T*
(our contribution to the UNFPA if countries showed an interest in such )Tj
T*
(assistance. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Each of these commitments is important and should be pursued by the\
U.)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(S. Government. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( It is vital that the effort to develop and strengthen a commitment \
on )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the part of the LDC leaders not be seen by them as an industrialized )Tj
T*
(country policy to keep their strength down or to reserve resources for u\
se )Tj
T*
(by the "rich" countries. Development of such a perception could create a\
)Tj
T*
(serious backlash adverse to the cause of population stability. Thus the \
U.)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(70 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
501 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(S. and other "rich" countries should take care that policies they advoca\
te )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(for the LDC's would be acceptable within their own countries. \(This may\
)Tj
T*
(require public debate and affirmation of our intended policies.\) The )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
("political" leadership role in developing countries should, of course, b\
e )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(taken whenever possible by their own leaders. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The U.S. can help to minimize charges of an imperialist motivation \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(behind its support of population activities by repeatedly asserting that\
)Tj
T*
(such support derives from a concern with: )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
(\(a\) the right of the individual couple to determine freely and )Tj
T*
(responsibly their number and spacing of children and to have )Tj
T*
(information, education, and 1means to do so; and )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(\(b\) the fundamental social and economic development of poor )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(countries in which rapid population growth is both a )Tj
T*
(contributing cause and a consequence of widespread poverty. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
(Furthermore, the U.S. should also take steps to convey the message that \
)Tj
T*
(the control of world population growth is in the mutual interest of the \
)Tj
T*
(developed and developing countries alike. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Family planning programs should be supported by multilateral )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(organizations wherever they can provide the most efficient and acceptabl\
e )Tj
T*
(means. Where U.S. bilateral assistance is necessary or preferred, it )Tj
T*
(should be provided in collaboration with host country institutions -- as\
)Tj
T*
(is the case now. Credit should go to local leaders for the success of )Tj
T*
(projects. The success and acceptability of family planning assistance wi\
ll )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(depend in large measure on the degree to which it contributes to the )Tj
T*
(ability of the host government to serve and obtain the support of its )Tj
T*
(people. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In many countries today, decision-makers are wary of instituting )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population programs, not because they are unconcerned about rapid )Tj
T*
(population growth, but because they lack confidence that such programs )Tj
T*
(will succeed. By actively working to demonstrate to such leaders that )Tj
T*
(national population and family planning programs have achieved progress \
in )Tj
T*
(a wide variety of poor countries, the U.S. could help persuade the leade\
rs )Tj
T*
(of many countries that the investment of funds in national family planni\
ng )Tj
T*
(programs is likely to yield high returns even in the short and medium )Tj
T*
(term. Several examples of success exist already, although regrettably th\
ey )Tj
T*
(tend to come from LDCs that are untypically well off in terms of income \
)Tj
T*
(growth and/or social services or are islands or city states. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( We should also appeal to potential leaders among the younger )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(generations in developing countries, focusing on the implications of )Tj
T*
(continued rapid population growth for their countries in the next 10-20 \
)Tj
T*
(years, when they may assume national leadership roles. )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(71 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
502 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 745.639 Tm
( Beyond seeking to reach and influence national leaders, improved )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(world-wide support for population-related efforts should be sought throu\
gh )Tj
T*
(increased emphasis on mass media and other population education and )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(motivation programs by the U.N., USIA, and USAID. We should give higher \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(priorities in our information programs world-wide for this area and )Tj
T*
(consider expansion of collaborative arrangements with multilateral )Tj
T*
(institutions in population education programs. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Another challenge will be in obtaining the further understanding an\
d )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(support of the U.S. public and Congress for the necessary added funds fo\
r )Tj
T*
(such an effort, given the competing demands for resources. If an effecti\
ve )Tj
T*
(program is to be mounted by the U.S., we will need to contribute )Tj
T*
(significant new amounts of funds. Thus there is need to reinforce the )Tj
T*
(positive attitudes of those in Congress who presently support U.S. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(activity in the population field and to enlist their support in persuadi\
ng )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(others. Public debate is needed now. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Personal approaches by the President, the Secretary of State, other\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(members of the Cabinet, and their principal deputies would be helpful in\
)Tj
T*
(this effort. Congress and the public must be clearly informed that the )Tj
T*
(Executive Branch is seriously worried about the problem and that it )Tj
T*
(deserves their further attention. Congressional representatives at the )Tj
T*
(World Population Conference can help. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(An Alternative View )Tj
T*
( The above basic strategy assumes that the current forms of assistan\
ce )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(programs in both population and economic and social development areas wi\
ll )Tj
T*
(be able to solve the problem. There is however, another view, which is )Tj
T*
(shared by a growing number of experts. It believes that the outlook is )Tj
T*
(much harsher and far less tractable than commonly perceived. This holds \
)Tj
T*
(that the severity of the population problem in this century which is )Tj
T*
(already claiming the lives of more than 10 million people yearly, is suc\
h )Tj
T*
(as to make likely continued widespread food shortage and other demograph\
ic )Tj
T*
(catastrophes, and, in the words of C.P. Snow, we shall be watching peopl\
e )Tj
T*
(starve on television. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The conclusion of this view is that mandatory programs may be neede\
d )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and that we should be considering these possibilities now. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( This school of thought believes the following types of questions ne\
ed )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(to be addressed: )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 93.1338 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 93.1338 Tm
(Should the U.S. make an all out commitment to major limitation of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(world population with all the financial and international as well as )Tj
T*
(domestic political costs that would entail? )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(72 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
503 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 756.2309 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 756.2309 Tm
(Should the U.S. set even higher agricultural production goals which )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(would enable it to provide additional major food resources to other )Tj
T*
(countries? Should they be nationally or internationally controlled? )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 694.854 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 694.854 Tm
(On what basis should such food resources then be provided? Would food )Tj
T*
(be considered an instrument of national power? Will we be forced to )Tj
T*
(make choices as to whom we can reasonably assist, and if so, should )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population efforts be a criterion for such assistance? )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 618.6194 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 618.6194 Tm
(Is the U.S. prepared to accept food rationing to help people who )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(can't/won't control their population growth? )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 572.1003 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 572.1003 Tm
(Should the U.S. seek to change its own food consumption patterns )Tj
T*
(toward more efficient uses of protein? )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 525.5812 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 525.5812 Tm
(Are mandatory population control measures appropriate for the U.S. )Tj
T*
(and/or for others? )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 479.0621 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 479.0621 Tm
(Should the U.S. initiate a major research effort to address the )Tj
T*
(growing problems of fresh water supply, ecological damage, and )Tj
T*
(adverse climate? )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( While definitive answers to those questions are not possible in thi\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(study given its time limitations and its implications for domestic polic\
y, )Tj
T*
(nevertheless they are needed if one accepts the drastic and persistent )Tj
T*
(character of the population growth problem. Should the choice be made th\
at )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the recommendations and the options given below are )Tj
/T1_3 1 Tf
(not)Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
( adequate to meet )Tj
T*
(this problem, consideration should be given to a further study and )Tj
T*
(additional action in this field as outlined above. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Conclusion )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The overall strategy above provides a general approach through whic\
h )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the difficulties and dangers of population growth and related problems c\
an )Tj
T*
(be approached in a balanced and comprehensive basis. No single effort wi\
ll )Tj
T*
(do the job. Only a concerted and major effort in a number of carefully )Tj
T*
(selected directions can provide the hope of success in reducing populati\
on )Tj
T*
(growth and its unwanted dangers to world economic will-being and politic\
al )Tj
T*
(stability. There are no "quick-fixes" in this field. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Below are specific program recommendations which are designed to )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(implement this strategy. Some will require few new resources; many call \
)Tj
T*
(for major efforts and significant new resources. We cannot simply buy )Tj
T*
(population growth moderation for nearly 4 billion people "on the cheap."\
)Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(II. Action to Create Conditions for Fertility Decline: Population and a \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Development Assistance Strategy )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(73 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
504 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 754.6598 Tm
(II. A. General Strategy and Resource Allocations for AID Assistance )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Discussion: )Tj
T*
(1. Past Program Actions )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Since inception of the program in 1965, AID has obligated nearly $6\
25 )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(million for population activities. These funds have been used primarily \
to )Tj
T*
(\(1\) draw attention to the population problem, \(2\) encourage multilat\
eral )Tj
T*
(and other donor support for the worldwide population effort, and \(3\) h\
elp )Tj
T*
(create and maintain the means for attacking the problem, including the )Tj
T*
(development of LDC capabilities to do so. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In pursuing these objectives, AID's population resources were )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(focussed on areas of need where action was feasible and likely to be )Tj
T*
(effective. AID has provided assistance to population programs in some 70\
)Tj
T*
(LDCs, on a bilateral basis and/or indirectly through private organizatio\
ns )Tj
T*
(and other channels. AID currently provides bilateral assistance to 36 of\
)Tj
T*
(these countries. State and AID played an important role in establishing \
)Tj
T*
(the United Nations Fund for Population Activities \(UNFPA\) to spearhead\
)Tj
T*
(multilateral effort in population as a complement to the bilateral actio\
ns )Tj
T*
(of AID and other donor countries. Since the Fund's establishment, AID ha\
s )Tj
T*
(been the largest single contributor. Moreover, with assistance from AID \
a )Tj
T*
(number of private family planning organizations \(e.g., Pathfinder Fund,\
)Tj
T*
(International Planned Parenthood Foundation, Population Council\) have )Tj
T*
(significantly expanded their worldwide population programs. Such )Tj
T*
(organizations are still the main supporters of family planning action in\
)Tj
T*
(many developing countries. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( AID actions have been a major catalyst in stimulating the flow of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(funds into LDC population programs - from almost nothing ten years ago, \
)Tj
T*
(the amounts being spent from all sources in 1974 for programs in the )Tj
T*
(developing countries of Africa, Latin America, and Asia \(excluding Chin\
a\) )Tj
T*
(will total between $400 and $500 million. About half of this will be )Tj
T*
(contributed by the developed countries bilaterally or through multilater\
al )Tj
T*
(agencies, and the balance will come from the budgets of the developing )Tj
T*
(countries themselves. AID's contribution is about one-quarter of the tot\
al )Tj
T*
(- AID obligated $112.4 million for population programs in FY 1974 and )Tj
T*
(plans for FY 1975 program of $137.5 million. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( While world resources for population activities will continue to )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(grow, they are unlikely to expand as rapidly as needed. \(One rough )Tj
T*
(estimate is that five times the current amount, or about $2.5 billion in\
)Tj
T*
(constant dollars, will be required annually by 1985 to provide the 2.5 )Tj
T*
(billion people in the developing world, excluding China, with full-scale\
)Tj
T*
(family planning programs\). In view of these limited resources AID's )Tj
T*
(efforts \(in both fiscal and manpower terms\) and through its leadership\
the )Tj
T*
(efforts of others, must be focussed to the extent possible on high )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(74 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
505 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(priority needs in countries where the population problem is the most )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(acute. Accordingly, AID last year began a process of developing geograph\
ic )Tj
T*
(and functional program priorities for use in allocating funds and staff,\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and in arranging and adjusting divisions of labor with other donors and \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(organizations active in the worldwide population effort. Although this )Tj
T*
(study has not yet been completed, a general outline of a U.S. population\
)Tj
T*
(assistance strategy can be developed from the results of the priorities \
)Tj
T*
(studied to date. The geographic and functional parameters of the strateg\
y )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(are discussed under 2. and 3. below. The implications for population )Tj
T*
(resource allocations are presented under 4. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(2. Geographic Priorities in U.S. Population Assistance )Tj
T*
( The U.S. strategy should be to encourage and support, through )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(bilateral, multilateral and other channels, constructive actions to lowe\
r )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(fertility rates in selected developing countries. Within this overall )Tj
T*
(strategy and in view of funding and manpower limitations, the U.S. shoul\
d )Tj
T*
(emphasize assistance to those countries where the population problem is \
)Tj
T*
(the most serious. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( There are three major factors to consider in judging the seriousnes\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(of the problem: )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 406.7188 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 406.7188 Tm
(The first is the country's contribution to the world's population )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(problem, which is determined by the size of its population, its )Tj
T*
(population growth rate, and its progress in the "demographic )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(transition" from high birth and high death rates to low ones. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 330.4841 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 330.4841 Tm
(The second is the extent to which population growth impinges on the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(country's economic development and its financial capacity to cope )Tj
T*
(with its population problem. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 269.1072 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 269.1072 Tm
(The third factor is the extent to which an imbalance between growing )Tj
T*
(numbers of people and a country's capability to handle the problem )Tj
T*
(could lead to serious instability, international tensions, or )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(conflicts. Although many countries may experience adverse )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(consequences from such imbalances, the troublemaking regional or )Tj
T*
(international conditions might not be as serious in some places as )Tj
T*
(they are in others. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( Based on the first two criteria, AID has developed a preliminary ra\
nk )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(ordering of nearly 100 developing countries which, after review and )Tj
T*
(refinement, will be used as a guide in AID's own funding and manpower )Tj
T*
(resource allocations and in encouraging action through AID leadership )Tj
T*
(efforts on the part of other population assistance instrumentalities. )Tj
T*
(Applying these three criteria to this rank ordering, there are 13 )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(countries where we currently judge the problem and risks to be the most \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(serious. They are: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Philippines, \
)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(75 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
506 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(Thailand, Egypt, Turkey, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia\
. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Out of a total 67 million worldwide increase in population in 1972 these\
)Tj
T*
(countries contributed about 45%. These countries range from those with )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(virtually no government interest in family planning to those with active\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(government family planning programs which require and would welcome )Tj
T*
(enlarged technical and financial assistance. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( These countries should be given the highest priority within AID's )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population program in terms of resource allocations and/or leadership )Tj
T*
(efforts to encourage action by other donors and organizations. The form \
)Tj
T*
(and content of our assistance or leadership efforts would vary from )Tj
T*
(country-to-country \(as discussed in 3. below\), depending on each count\
ry's )Tj
T*
(needs, its receptivity to various forms of assistance, its capability to\
)Tj
T*
(finance needed actions, the effectiveness with which funds can be used, \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and current or adjusted divisions of labor among the other donors and )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(organizations providing population assistance to the country. AID's )Tj
T*
(population actions would also need to be consistent with the overall U.S\
. )Tj
T*
(development policy toward each country. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( While the countries cited above would be given highest priority, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(other countries would not be ignored. AID would provide population )Tj
T*
(assistance and/or undertake leadership efforts with respect to other )Tj
T*
(countries to the extent that the availability of funds and staff permits\
, )Tj
T*
(taking account of such factors as: a country's placement in AID's priori\
ty )Tj
T*
(listing of LDCs; its potential impact on domestic unrest and internation\
al )Tj
T*
(frictions \(which can apply to small as well as large countries\); its )Tj
T*
(significance as a test or demonstration case; and opportunities for )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(expenditures that appear particularly cost-effective \(e.g. its has been\
)Tj
T*
(suggested that there may be particularly cost-effective opportunities fo\
r )Tj
T*
(supporting family planning to reduce the lag between mortality and )Tj
T*
(fertility declines in countries where death rates are still declining )Tj
T*
(rapidly\). )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(3. Mode and Content of U.S. Population Assistance)Tj
T*
( In moving from geographic emphases to strategies for the mode and )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(functional content of population assistance to both the higher and lower\
)Tj
T*
(priority countries which are to be assisted, various factors need to be \
)Tj
T*
(considered: \(1\) the extent of a country's understanding of its populat\
ion )Tj
T*
(problem and interest in responding to it; \(2\) the specific actions nee\
ded )Tj
T*
(to cope with the problem; \(3\) the country's need for external financia\
l )Tj
T*
(assistance to deal with the problem; and \(4\) its receptivity to variou\
s )Tj
T*
(forms of assistance. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Some of the countries in the high priority group cited above \(e.g.\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand\) and some lower \
)Tj
T*
(priority countries have recognized that rapid population growth is a )Tj
T*
(problem, are taking actions of their own to deal with it, and are )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(76 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
507 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(receptive to assistance from the U.S. \(through bilateral or central AID\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(funding\) and other donors, as well as to multilateral support for their\
)Tj
T*
(efforts. In these cases AID should continue to provide such assistance )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(based on each country's functional needs, the effectiveness with which )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(funds can be used in these areas, and current or adjusted divisions of )Tj
T*
(labor among other donors and organizations providing assistance to the )Tj
T*
(country. Furthermore, our assistance strategies for these countries shou\
ld )Tj
T*
(consider their capabilities to finance needed population actions. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Countries which have relatively large surpluses of export earning and )Tj
T*
(foreign exchange reserves are unlikely to require large-scale external )Tj
T*
(financial assistance and should be encouraged to finance their own )Tj
T*
(commodity imports as well as local costs. In such cases our strategy )Tj
T*
(should be to concentrate on needed technical assistance and on attemptin\
g )Tj
T*
(to play a catalytic role in encouraging better programs and additional )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(host country financing for dealing with the population problem. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In other high and lower priority countries U.S. assistance is limit\
ed )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(either by the nature of political or diplomatic relations with those )Tj
T*
(countries \(e.g. India, Egypt\), or by the lack of strong government )Tj
T*
(interest in population reduction programs \(e.g. Nigeria, Ethiopia, Mexi\
co, )Tj
T*
(Brazil\). In such cases, external technical and financial assistance, if\
)Tj
T*
(desired by the countries, would have to come from other donors and/or fr\
om )Tj
T*
(private and international organizations \(many of which receive )Tj
T*
(contributions from AID\). The USG would, however, maintain an interest \(\
e.)Tj
T*
(g. through Embassies\) in such countries' population problems and progra\
ms )Tj
T*
(\(if any\) to reduce population growth rates. Moreover, particularly in \
the )Tj
T*
(case of high priority countries to which U.S. population assistance is n\
ow )Tj
T*
(limited for one reason or another, we should be alert to opportunities f\
or )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(expanding our assistance efforts and for demonstrating to their leaders \
)Tj
T*
(the consequences of rapid population growth and the benefits of actions \
to )Tj
T*
(reduce fertility. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In countries to which other forms of U.S. assistance are provided b\
ut )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(not population assistance, AID will monitor progress toward achievement \
of )Tj
T*
(development objectives, taking into account the extent to which these ar\
e )Tj
T*
(hindered by rapid population growth, and will look for opportunities to \
)Tj
T*
(encourage initiation of or improvement in population policies and )Tj
T*
(programs. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In addition, the U.S. strategy should support general activities )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(capable of achieving major breakthroughs in key problems which hinder )Tj
T*
(attainment of fertility control objectives. For example, the development\
)Tj
T*
(of more effective, simpler contraceptive methods through bio-medical )Tj
T*
(research will benefit all countries which face the problem of rapid )Tj
T*
(population growth; improvements in methods for measuring demographic )Tj
T*
(changes will assist a number of LDCs in determining current population )Tj
T*
(growth rates and evaluating the impact over time of population/family )Tj
T*
(planning activities. )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(77 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
508 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 753.4217 Tm
(4. Resource Allocations for U.S. Population Assistance )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( AID funds obligated for population/family planning assistance rose \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(steadily since inception of the program \($10 million in the FY 1965-67 \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(period\) to nearly $125 million in FY 1972. In FY 1973, however, funds )Tj
T*
(available for population remained at the $125 million level; in FY 1974 \
)Tj
T*
(they actually declined slightly, to $112.5 million because of a ceiling \
on )Tj
T*
(population obligations inserted in the legislation by the House )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Appropriations Committee. With this plateau in AID population obligation\
s, )Tj
T*
(worldwide resources have not been adequate to meet all identified, )Tj
T*
(sensible funding needs, and we therefore see opportunities for significa\
nt )Tj
T*
(expansion of the program. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Some major actions in the area of creating conditions for fertility\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(decline, as described in Section IIB, can be funded from AID resources )Tj
T*
(available for the sectors in question \(e.g., education, agriculture\). \
)Tj
T*
(Other actions come under the purview of population \("Title X"\) funds. \
In )Tj
T*
(this latter category, increases in projected budget requests to the )Tj
T*
(Congress on the order of $35-50 million annually through FY 1980 -- abov\
e )Tj
T*
(the $137.5 million requested by FY 1975 -- appear appropriate at this )Tj
T*
(time. Such increases must be accompanied by expanding contributions to t\
he )Tj
T*
(worldwide population effort from other donors and organizations and from\
)Tj
T*
(the LDCs themselves, if significant progress is to be made. The USG shou\
ld )Tj
T*
(take advantage of appropriate opportunities to stimulate such )Tj
T*
(contributions from others. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Title X Funding for Population)Tj
0 -3.6 TD
( +----------------------------------------------------+)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( | Year Amount \($ million\) |)Tj
T*
( +----------------------------------------------------+)Tj
T*
( | FY 1972 - Actual Obligations 123.3 |)Tj
T*
( | FY 1973 - Actual Obligations 125.6 |)Tj
T*
( | FY 1974 - Actual Obligations 112.4 |)Tj
T*
( | FY 1975 - Request to Congress 137.5 |)Tj
T*
( | FY 1976 - Projection 170 |)Tj
T*
( | FY 1977 - Projection 210 |)Tj
T*
( | FY 1978 - Projection 250 |)Tj
T*
( | FY 1979 - Projection 300 |)Tj
T*
( | FY 1980 - Projection 350 |)Tj
T*
( +----------------------------------------------------+)Tj
0 -4.957 TD
( These Title X funding projections for FY 1976-80 are general )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(magnitudes based on preliminary estimates of expansion or initiation of \
)Tj
T*
(population programs in developing countries and growing requirements for\
)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(78 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
509 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(outside assistance as discussed in greater detail in other sections of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(this paper. These estimates contemplated very substantial increases in )Tj
T*
(self-help and assistance from other donor countries. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Our objective should be to assure that developing countries make )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(family planning information, educational and means available to all thei\
r )Tj
T*
(peoples by 1980. Our efforts should include: )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 633.4772 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 633.4772 Tm
(Increased A.I.D. bilateral and centrally-funded programs, consistent )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(with the geographic priorities cited above. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 586.9581 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 586.9581 Tm
(Expanded contributions to multilateral and private organizations that )Tj
T*
(can work effectively in the population area. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 540.439 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 540.439 Tm
(Further research on the relative impact of various socio-economic )Tj
T*
(factors on desired family size, and experimental efforts to test the )Tj
T*
(feasibility of larger-scale efforts to affect some of these factors. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 479.0621 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 479.0621 Tm
(Additional bio-medical research to improve the existing means of )Tj
T*
(fertility control and to develop new ones which are safe, effective, )Tj
T*
(inexpensive, and attractive to both men and women. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 417.6853 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 417.6853 Tm
(Innovative approaches to providing family planning services, such as )Tj
T*
(the utilization of commercial channels for distribution of )Tj
T*
(contraceptives, and the development of low-cost systems for )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(delivering effective health and family planning services to the 85% )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(of LDC populations not now reached by such services. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
6.1908 0 0 6.1908 50.1566 326.5928 Tm
(l)Tj
/T1_0 1 Tf
( )Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 326.5928 Tm
(Expanded efforts to increase the awareness of LDC leaders and publics )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(regarding the consequences of rapid population growth and to )Tj
T*
(stimulate further LDC commitment to actions to reduce fertility. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( We believe expansions in the range of 35-50 million annually over t\
he )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(next five years are realistic, in light of potential LDC needs and )Tj
T*
(prospects for increased contributions from other population assistance )Tj
T*
(instrumentalities, as well as constraints on the speed with which AID \(\
and )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(other donors\) population funds can be expanded and effectively utilized\
. )Tj
T*
(These include negative or ambivalent host government attitudes toward )Tj
T*
(population reduction programs; the need for complementary financial and \
)Tj
T*
(manpower inputs by recipient governments, which must come at the expense\
)Tj
T*
(of other programs they consider to be high priority; and the need to )Tj
T*
(assure that new projects involve sensible, effective actions that are )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(likely to reduce fertility. We must avoid inadequately planned or )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(implemented programs that lead to extremely high costs per acceptor. In \
)Tj
T*
(effect, we are closer to "absorptive capacity" in terms of year-to-year \
)Tj
T*
(increases in population programs than we are, for example, in annual )Tj
T*
(expansions in food, fertilizer or generalized resource transfers. )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(79 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
510 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
( It would be premature to make detailed funding recommendations by )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(countries and functional categories in light of our inability to predict\
)Tj
T*
(what changes -- such as in host country attitudes to U.S. population )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(assistance and in fertility control technologies -- may occur which woul\
d )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(significantly alter funding needs in particular geographic or functional\
)Tj
T*
(areas. For example, AID is currently precluded from providing bilateral \
)Tj
T*
(assistance to India and Egypt, two significant countries in the highest \
)Tj
T*
(priority group, due to the nature of U.S. political and diplomatic )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(relations with these countries. However, if these relationships were to \
)Tj
T*
(change and bilateral aid could be provided, we would want to consider )Tj
T*
(providing appropriate population assistance to these countries. In other\
)Tj
T*
(cases, changing U.S.-LDC relationships might preclude further aid to som\
e )Tj
T*
(countries. Factors such as these could both change the mix and affect )Tj
T*
(overall magnitudes of funds needed for population assistance. Therefore,\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(proposed program mixes and funding levels by geographic and functional )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(categories should continue to be examined on an annual basis during the \
)Tj
T*
(regular USG program and budget review processes which lead to the )Tj
T*
(presentation of funding requests to the Congress. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Recognizing that changing opportunities for action could )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(substantially affect AID's resource requirements for population )Tj
T*
(assistance, we anticipate that, if funds are provided by the Congress at\
)Tj
T*
(the levels projected, we would be able to cover necessary actions relate\
d )Tj
T*
(to the highest priority countries and also those related to lower priori\
ty )Tj
T*
(countries, moving reasonably far down the list. At this point, however, \
)Tj
T*
(AID believes it would not be desirable to make priority judgments on whi\
ch )Tj
T*
(activities would not be funded if Congress did not provide the levels )Tj
T*
(projected. If cuts were made in these levels we would have to make )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(judgments based on such factors as the priority rankings of countries, )Tj
T*
(then-existing LDC needs, and divisions of labor with other actors in the\
)Tj
T*
(population assistance area. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( If AID's population assistance program is to expand at the general \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(magnitudes cited above, additional direct hire staff will likely be )Tj
T*
(needed. While the expansion in program action would be primarily through\
)Tj
T*
(grants and contracts with LDC or U.S. institutions, or through )Tj
T*
(contributions to international organizations, increases in direct hire )Tj
T*
(staff would be necessary to review project proposals, monitor their )Tj
T*
(implementation through such instrumentalities, and evaluate their progre\
ss )Tj
T*
(against pre-established goals. Specific direct hire manpower requirement\
s )Tj
T*
(should continue to be considered during the annual program and budget )Tj
T*
(reviews, along with details of program mix and funding levels by country\
)Tj
T*
(and functional category, in order to correlate staffing needs with )Tj
T*
(projected program actions for a particular year. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Recommendations )Tj
T*
( 1. The U.S. strategy should be to encourage and support, through )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(80 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
511 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(bilateral, multilateral and other channels, constructive action to lower\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(fertility rates in selected developing countries. The U.S. should apply \
)Tj
T*
(each of the relevant provisions of its World Population Plan of Action a\
nd )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(use it to influence and support actions by developing countries. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 2. Within this overall strategy, the U.S. should give highest )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(priority, in terms of resource allocation \(along with donors\) to effor\
ts )Tj
T*
(to encourage assistance from others to those countries cited above where\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the population problem is most serious, and provide assistance to other \
)Tj
T*
(countries as funds and staff permit. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 3. AID's further development of population program priorities, both\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(geographic and functional, should be consistent with the general strateg\
y )Tj
T*
(discussed above, with the other recommendations of this paper and with t\
he )Tj
T*
(World Population Plan of Action. The strategies should be coordinated wi\
th )Tj
T*
(the population activities of other donors countries and agencies using t\
he )Tj
T*
(WPPA as leverage to obtain suitable action. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 4. AID's budget requests over the next five years should include a \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(major expansion of bilateral population and family planning programs \(a\
s )Tj
T*
(appropriate for each country or region\), of functional activities as )Tj
T*
(necessary, and of contributions through multilateral channels, consisten\
t )Tj
T*
(with the general funding magnitudes discussed above. The proposed budget\
s )Tj
T*
(should emphasize the country and functional priorities outlined in the )Tj
T*
(recommendations of this study and as detailed in AID's geographic and )Tj
T*
(functional strategy papers. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(II. B. Functional Assistance Programs to Create Conditions for Fertility\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Decline )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Introduction )Tj
T*
(Discussion)Tj
T*
( It is clear that the availability of contraceptive services and )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(information, important as that is, is not the only element required to )Tj
T*
(address the population problems of the LDCs. Substantial evidence shows \
)Tj
T*
(that many families in LDCs \(especially the poor\) consciously prefer to\
)Tj
T*
(have numerous children for a variety of economic and social reasons. For\
)Tj
T*
(example, small children can make economic contributions on family farms,\
)Tj
T*
(children can be important sources of support for old parents where no )Tj
T*
(alternative form of social security exists, and children may be a source\
)Tj
T*
(of status for women who have few alternatives in male-dominated societie\
s. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The desire for large families diminishes as income rises. Developed\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(countries and the more developed areas in LDCs have lower fertility than\
)Tj
T*
(less developed areas. Similarly, family planning programs produce more )Tj
T*
(acceptors and have a greater impact on fertility in developed areas than\
)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(81 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
512 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(they do in less developed areas. Thus, investments in development are )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(important in lowering fertility rates. We know that the major socio-)Tj
T*
(economic determinants of fertility are strongly interrelated. A change i\
n )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(any one of them is likely to produce a change in the others as well. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Clearly development )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(per se)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( is a powerful determinant of fertility. )Tj
T*
(However, since it is unlikely that most LDCs will develop sufficiently )Tj
T*
(during the next 25-30 years, it is crucial to identify those sectors tha\
t )Tj
T*
(most directly and powerfully affect fertility. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In this context, population should be viewed as a variable which )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(interacts, to differing degrees, with a wide range of development )Tj
T*
(programs, and the U.S. strategy should continue to stress the importance\
)Tj
T*
(of taking population into account in "non-family planning" activities. )Tj
T*
(This is particularly important with the increasing focus in the U.S. )Tj
T*
(development program on food and nutrition, health and population, and )Tj
T*
(education and human resources; assistance programs have less chance of )Tj
T*
(success as long as the numbers to be fed, educated, and employed are )Tj
T*
(increasing rapidly. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Thus, to assist in achieving LDC fertility reduction, not only shou\
ld )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(family planning be high up on the priority list for U.S. foreign )Tj
T*
(assistance, but high priority in allocation of funds should be given to \
)Tj
T*
(programs in other sectors that contribute in a cost-effective manner in \
)Tj
T*
(reduction in population growth. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( There is a growing, but still quite small, body of research to )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(determine the socio-economic aspects of development that most directly a\
nd )Tj
T*
(powerfully affect fertility. Although the limited analysis to date canno\
t )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(be considered definitive, there is general agreement that the five )Tj
T*
(following factors \(in addition to increases in per capita income\) tend\
to )Tj
T*
(be strongly associated with fertility declines: education, especially th\
e )Tj
T*
(education of women; reductions in infant mortality; wage employment )Tj
T*
(opportunities for women; social security and other substitutes for the )Tj
T*
(economic value of children; and relative equality in income distribution\
)Tj
T*
(and rural development. There are a number of other factors identified fr\
om )Tj
T*
(research, historical analysis, and experimentation that also affect )Tj
T*
(fertility, including delaying the average age of marriage, and direct )Tj
T*
(payments \(financial incentive\) to family planning acceptors. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( There are, however, a number of questions which must be addressed )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(before one can move from identification of factors associated with )Tj
T*
(fertility decline to large-scale programs that will induce fertility )Tj
T*
(decline in a cost-effective manner. For example, in the case of female )Tj
T*
(education, we need to consider such questions as: did the female educati\
on )Tj
T*
(cause fertility to decline or did the development process in some )Tj
T*
(situations cause parents both to see less economic need for large famili\
es )Tj
T*
(and to indulge in the "luxury" of educating their daughters? If more )Tj
T*
(female education does in fact cause fertility declines, will poor high-)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(82 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
513 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(fertility parents see much advantage in sending their daughters to schoo\
l? )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(If so, how much does it cost to educate a girl to the point where her )Tj
T*
(fertility will be reduced \(which occurs at about the fourth-grade level\
\)? )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(What specific programs in female education are most cost-effective \(e.g\
., )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(primary school, non-formal literacy training, or vocational or pre-)Tj
T*
(vocational training\)? What, in rough quantitative terms, are the non-)Tj
T*
(population benefits of an additional dollar spent on female education in\
a )Tj
T*
(given situation in comparison to other non-population investment )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(alternatives? What are the population benefits of a dollar spent on fema\
le )Tj
T*
(education in comparison with other population-related investments, such \
as )Tj
T*
(in contraceptive supplies or in maternal and child health care systems? \
)Tj
T*
(And finally, what is the total population plus non-population benefit of\
)Tj
T*
(investment in a given specific program in female education in comparison\
)Tj
T*
(with the total population plus non-population benefits of alternate )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(feasible investment opportunities? )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( As a recent research proposal from Harvard's Department of Populati\
on )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Studies puts this problem: "Recent studies have identified more specific\
)Tj
T*
(factors underlying fertility declines, especially, the spread of )Tj
T*
(educational attainment and the broadening of non-traditional roles for )Tj
T*
(women. In situations of rapid population growth, however, these run )Tj
T*
(counter to powerful market forces. Even when efforts are made to provide\
)Tj
T*
(educational opportunities for most of the school age population, low )Tj
T*
(levels of development and restricted employment opportunities for )Tj
T*
(academically educated youth lead to high dropout rates and non-)Tj
T*
(attendance..." )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Fortunately, the situation is by no means as ambiguous for all of t\
he )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(likely factors affecting fertility. For example, laws that raise the )Tj
T*
(minimum marriage age, where politically feasible and at least partially \
)Tj
T*
(enforceable, can over time have a modest effect on fertility at negligib\
le )Tj
T*
(cost. Similarly, there have been some controversial, but remarkably )Tj
T*
(successful, experiments in India in which financial incentives, along wi\
th )Tj
T*
(other motivational devices, were used to get large numbers of men to )Tj
T*
(accept vasectomies. In addition, there appear to be some major activitie\
s, )Tj
T*
(such as programs aimed to improve the productive capacity of the rural )Tj
T*
(poor, which can be well justified even without reference to population )Tj
T*
(benefits, but which appear to have major population benefits as well. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The strategy suggested by the above considerations is that the volu\
me )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and type of programs aimed at the "determinants of fertility" should be \
)Tj
T*
(directly related to our estimate of the total benefits \(including non-)Tj
T*
(population benefits\) of a dollar invested in a given proposed program a\
nd )Tj
T*
(to our confidence in the reliability of that estimate. There is room for\
)Tj
T*
(honest disagreement among researchers and policy-makers about the )Tj
T*
(benefits, or feasibility, of a given program. Hopefully, over time, with\
)Tj
T*
(more research, experimentation and evaluation, areas of disagreement and\
)Tj
T*
(ambiguity will be clarified, and donors and recipients will have better \
)Tj
T*
(information both on what policies and programs tend to work under what )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(83 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
514 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 755.3673 Tm
(circumstances and how to go about analyzing a given country situation to\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(find the best feasible steps that should be taken. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Recommendations: )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 1. AID should implement the strategy set out in the World Populatio\
n )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Plan of Action, especially paragraphs 31 and 32 and Section I )Tj
T*
(\("Introduction - a U.S. Global Population Strategy"\) above, which call\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(for high priority in funding to three categories of programs in areas )Tj
T*
(affecting fertility \(family-size\) decisions: )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
(a. Operational programs where there is proven cost-)Tj
T*
(effectiveness, generally where there are also significant )Tj
T*
(benefits for non-population objectives; )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(b. Experimental programs where research indicates close )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(relationships to fertility reduction but cost-effectiveness has )Tj
T*
(not yet been demonstrated in terms of specific steps to be taken )Tj
T*
(\(i.e., program design\); and )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(c. Research and evaluation on the relative impact on desired )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(family size of the socio-economic determinants of fertility, and )Tj
T*
(on what policy scope exists for affecting these determinants. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( 2. Research, experimentation and evaluation of ongoing programs )Tj
T*
(should focus on answering the questions \(such as those raised above, )Tj
T*
(relating to female education\) that determine what steps can and should \
be )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(taken in other sectors that will in a cost-effective manner speed up the\
)Tj
T*
(rate of fertility decline. In addition to the five areas discussed in )Tj
T*
(Section II. B 1-5 below, the research should also cover the full range o\
f )Tj
T*
(factors affecting fertility, such as laws and norms respecting age of )Tj
T*
(marriage, and financial incentives. Work of this sort should be undertak\
en )Tj
T*
(in individual key countries to determine the motivational factors requir\
ed )Tj
T*
(there to develop a preference for small family size. High priority must \
be )Tj
T*
(given to testing feasibility and replicability on a wide scale. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 3. AID should encourage other donors in LDC governments to carry ou\
t )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(parallel strategies of research, experimentation, and \(cost-effective w\
ell-)Tj
T*
(evaluated\) large-scale operations programs on factors affecting fertili\
ty. )Tj
T*
(Work in this area should be coordinated, and results shared. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 4. AID should help develop capacity in a few existing U.S. and LDC \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(institutions to serve as major centers for research and policy developme\
nt )Tj
T*
(in the areas of fertility-affecting social or economic measures, direct \
)Tj
T*
(incentives, household behavior research, and evaluation techniques for )Tj
T*
(motivational approaches. The centers should provide technical assistance\
, )Tj
T*
(serve as a forum for discussion, and generally provide the "critical mas\
s" )Tj
T*
(of effort and visibility which has been lacking in this area to date. )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(84 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
515 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(Emphasis should be given to maximum involvement of LDC institutions and \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(individuals. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The following sections discuss research experimental and operationa\
l )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(programs to be undertaken in the five promising areas mentioned above. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(II. B. 1. Providing Minimal Levels of Education, Especially for Women)Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Discussion )Tj
T*
( There is fairly convincing evidence that female education especiall\
y )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(of 4th grade and above correlates strongly with reduced desired family )Tj
T*
(size, although it is unclear the extent to which the female education )Tj
T*
(causes reductions in desired family size or whether it is a faster pace \
of )Tj
T*
(development which leads both to increased demand for female education an\
d )Tj
T*
(to reduction in desired family size. There is also a relatively widely )Tj
T*
(held theory -- though not statistically validated -- that improved level\
s )Tj
T*
(of literacy contribute to reduction in desired family size both through \
)Tj
T*
(greater knowledge of family planning information and increasing )Tj
T*
(motivational factors related to reductions in family size. Unfortunately\
, )Tj
T*
(AID's experience with mass literacy programs over the past 15 years has \
)Tj
T*
(yielded the sobering conclusion that such programs generally failed \(i.\
e. )Tj
T*
(were not cost-effective\) unless the population sees practical benefits \
to )Tj
T*
(themselves from learning how to read -- e.g., a requirement for literacy\
)Tj
T*
(to acquire easier access to information about new agricultural )Tj
T*
(technologies or to jobs that require literacy. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Now, however, AID has recently revised its education strategy, in )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(line with the mandate of its legislation, to place emphasis on the sprea\
d )Tj
T*
(of education to poor people, particularly in rural areas, and relatively\
)Tj
T*
(less on higher levels of education. This approach is focused on use of )Tj
T*
(formal and "non-formal" education \(i.e., organized education outside th\
e )Tj
T*
(schoolroom setting\) to assist in meeting the human resource requirement\
s )Tj
T*
(of the development process, including such things as rural literacy )Tj
T*
(programs aimed at agriculture, family planning, or other development )Tj
T*
(goals. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Recommendations )Tj
T*
( 1. Integrated basic education \(including applied literacy\) and fa\
mily )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(planning programs should be developed whenever they appear to be )Tj
T*
(effective, of high priority, and acceptable to the individual country. A\
ID )Tj
T*
(should continue its emphasis on basic education, for women as well as me\
n. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 2. A major effort should be made in LDCs seeking to reduce birth )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(rates to assure at least an elementary school education for virtually al\
l )Tj
T*
(children, girls as well as boys, as soon as the country can afford it )Tj
T*
(\(which would be quite soon for all but the poorest countries\). Simplif\
ied, )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(85 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
516 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(practical education programs should be developed. These programs should,\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(where feasible, include specific curricula to motivate the next generati\
on )Tj
T*
(toward a two-child family average to assure that level of fertility in t\
wo )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(or three decades. AID should encourage and respond to requests for )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(assistance in extending basic education and in introducing family planni\
ng )Tj
T*
(into curricula. Expenditures for such emphasis on increased practical )Tj
T*
(education should come from general AID funds, not population funds. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(II. B. 2. Reducing Infant and Child Mortality )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Discussion: )Tj
T*
( High infant and child mortality rates, evident in many developing )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(countries, lead parents to be concerned about the number of their childr\
en )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(who are likely to survive. Parents may overcompensate for possible child\
)Tj
T*
(losses by having additional children. Research to date clearly indicates\
)Tj
T*
(not only that high fertility and high birth rates are closely correlated\
)Tj
T*
(but that in most circumstances low net population growth rates can only \
be )Tj
T*
(achieved when child mortality is low as well. Policies and programs whic\
h )Tj
T*
(significantly reduce infant and child mortality below present levels wil\
l )Tj
T*
(lead couples to have fewer children. However, we must recognize that the\
re )Tj
T*
(is a lag of at least several years before parents \(and cultures and )Tj
T*
(subcultures\) become confident that their children are more likely to )Tj
T*
(survive and to adjust their fertility behavior accordingly. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Considerable reduction in infant and child mortality is possible )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(through improvement in nutrition, inoculations against diseases, and oth\
er )Tj
T*
(public health measures if means can be devised for extending such servic\
es )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(to neglected LDC populations on a low-cost basis. It often makes sense t\
o )Tj
T*
(combine such activities with family planning services in integrated )Tj
T*
(delivery systems in order to maximize the use of scarce LDC financial an\
d )Tj
T*
(health manpowder \()Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(sic.)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(\) resources \(See Section IV\). In addition, providing )Tj
T*
(selected health care for both mothers and their children can enhance the\
)Tj
T*
(acceptability of family planning by showing concern for the whole )Tj
T*
(condition of the mother and her children and not just for the single )Tj
T*
(factor of fertility. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The two major cost-effective problems in maternal-child health care\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(are that clinical health care delivery systems have not in the past )Tj
T*
(accounted for much of the reduction in infant mortality and that, as in \
)Tj
T*
(the U.S., local medical communities tend to favor relatively expensive )Tj
T*
(quality health care, even at the cost of leaving large numbers of people\
)Tj
T*
(\(in the LDC's generally over two-thirds of the people\) virtually uncov\
ered )Tj
T*
(by modern health services. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Although we do not have all the answers on how to develop )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(inexpensive, integrated delivery systems, we need to proceed with )Tj
T*
(operational programs to respond to ODC requests if they are likely to be\
)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(86 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
517 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(cost-effective based on experience to date, and to experiment on a large\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(scale with innovative ways of tackling the outstanding problems. )Tj
T*
(Evaluation mechanisms for measuring the impact of various courses of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(action are an essential part of this effort in order to provide feedback\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(for current and future projects and to improve the state of the art in )Tj
T*
(this field. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Currently, efforts to develop low-cost health and family planning )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(services for neglected populations in the LDC's are impeded because of t\
he )Tj
T*
(lack of international commitment and resources to the health side. For )Tj
T*
(example: )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( A. The World Bank could supply low-interest credits to LDCs for the\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(development of low-cost health-related services to neglected populations\
)Tj
T*
(but has not yet made a policy decision to do so. The Bank has a populati\
on )Tj
T*
(and health program and the program's leaders have been quite sympathetic\
)Tj
T*
(with the above objective. The Bank's staff has prepared a policy paper o\
n )Tj
T*
(this subject for the Board but prospects for it are not good. Currently,\
)Tj
T*
(the paper will be discussed by the Bank Board at its November 1974 )Tj
T*
(meeting. Apparently there is some reticence within the Bank's Board and \
in )Tj
T*
(parts of the staff about making a strong initiative in this area. In par\
t, )Tj
T*
(the Bank argues that there are not proven models of effective, low-cost \
)Tj
T*
(health systems in which the Bank can invest. The Bank also argues that )Tj
T*
(other sectors such as agriculture, should receive higher priority in the\
)Tj
T*
(competition for scarce resources. In addition, arguments are made in som\
e )Tj
T*
(quarters of the Bank that the Bank ought to restrict itself to "hard loa\
n )Tj
T*
(projects" and not get into the "soft" area. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( A current reading from the Bank's staff suggests that unless there \
is )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(some change in the thinking of the Bank Board, the Bank's policy will be\
)Tj
T*
(simply to keep trying to help in the population and health areas but not\
)Tj
T*
(to take any large initiative in the low-cost delivery system area. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The Bank stance is regrettable because the Bank could play a very )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(useful role in this area helping to fund low-cost physical structures an\
d )Tj
T*
(other elements of low-cost health systems, including rural health clinic\
s )Tj
T*
(where needed. It could also help in providing low-cost loans for trainin\
g, )Tj
T*
(and in seeking and testing new approaches to reaching those who do not n\
ow )Tj
T*
(have access to health and family planning services. This would not be at\
)Tj
T*
(all inconsistent with our and the Bank's frankly admitting that we do no\
t )Tj
T*
(have all the "answer" or cost-effective models for low-cost health )Tj
T*
(delivery systems. Rather they, we and other donors could work together o\
n )Tj
T*
(experimentally oriented, operational programs to develop models for the \
)Tj
T*
(wide variety of situations faced by LDCs. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Involvement of the Bank in this area would open up new possibilitie\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(for collaboration. Grant funds, whether from the U.S. or UNFPA, could be\
)Tj
T*
(used to handle the parts of the action that require short lead times suc\
h )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(87 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
518 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(as immediate provision of supplies, certain kinds of training and rapid \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(deployment of technical assistance. Simultaneously, for parts of the )Tj
T*
(action that require longer lead times, such as building clinics, World )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Bank loans could be employed. The Bank's lending processes could be )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(synchronized to bring such building activity to a readiness condition at\
)Tj
T*
(the time the training programs have moved along far enough to permit )Tj
T*
(manning of the facilities. The emphasis should be on meeting low-cost )Tj
T*
(rather than high-cost infrastructure requirements. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Obviously, in addition to building, we assume the Bank could fund )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(other local-cost elements of expansion of health systems such as longer-\
)Tj
T*
(term training programs. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( AID is currently trying to work out improved consultation procedure\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(with the Bank staff in the hope of achieving better collaborative effort\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(within the Bank's current commitment of resources in the population and \
)Tj
T*
(health areas. With a greater commitment of Bank resources and improved )Tj
T*
(consultation with AID and UNFPA, a much greater dent could be made on th\
e )Tj
T*
(overall problem. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( B. The World Health Organization \(WHO\) and its counterpart for La\
tin )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(America, the Pan American Health Organization \(PAHO\), currently provid\
e )Tj
T*
(technical assistance in the development and implementation of health )Tj
T*
(projects which are in turn financed by international funding mechanisms \
)Tj
T*
(such as UNDP and the International Financial Institutions. However, fund\
s )Tj
T*
(available for health actions through these organizations are limited at \
)Tj
T*
(present. Higher priority by the international funding agencies to health\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(actions could expand the opportunities for useful collaborations among )Tj
T*
(donor institutions and countries to develop low-cost integrated health a\
nd )Tj
T*
(family planning delivery systems for LDC populations that do not now hav\
e )Tj
T*
(access to such services. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Recommendations: )Tj
T*
( The U.S. should encourage heightened international interest in and \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(commitment of resources to developing delivery mechanisms for providing \
)Tj
T*
(integrated health and family planning services to neglected populations \
at )Tj
T*
(costs which host countries can support within a reasonable period of tim\
e. )Tj
T*
(Efforts would include: )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 1. Encouraging the World Bank and other international funding )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(mechanisms, through the U.S. representatives on the boards of these )Tj
T*
(organizations, to take a broader initiative in the development of )Tj
T*
(inexpensive service delivery mechanisms in countries wishing to expand )Tj
T*
(such systems. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 2. Indicating U.S. willingness \(as the U.S. did at the World )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Population Conference\) to join with other donors and organizations to )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(88 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
519 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(encourage and support further action by LDC governments and other )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(institutions in the low-cost delivery systems area. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( A. As offered at Bucharest, the U.S. should join donor countries, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(WHO, UNFPA, UNICEF and the World Bank to create a consortium to offer )Tj
T*
(assistance to the more needy developing countries to establish their own\
)Tj
T*
(low-cost preventive and curative public health systems reaching into all\
)Tj
T*
(areas of their countries and capable of national support within a )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(reasonable period. Such systems would include family planning services a\
s )Tj
T*
(an ordinary part of their overall services. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( B. The WHO should be asked to take the leadership in such an )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(arrangement and is ready to do so. Apparently at least half of the )Tj
T*
(potential donor countries and the EEC's technical assistance program are\
)Tj
T*
(favorably inclined. So is the UNFPA and UNICEF. The U.S., through its )Tj
T*
(representation on the World Bank Board, should encourage a broader World\
)Tj
T*
(Bank initiative in this field, particularly to assist in the development\
)Tj
T*
(of inexpensive, basic health service infrastructures in countries wishin\
g )Tj
T*
(to undertake the development of such systems. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(3. Expanding Wage Employment Opportunities, Especially for Women )Tj
T*
(Discussion )Tj
T*
( Employment is the key to access to income, which opens the way to )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(improved health, education, nutrition, and reduced family size. Reliable\
)Tj
T*
(job opportunities enable parents to limit their family size and invest i\
n )Tj
T*
(the welfare of the children they have. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The status and utilization of women in LDC societies is particularl\
y )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(important in reducing family size. For women, employment outside the hom\
e )Tj
T*
(offers an alternative to early marriage and childbearing, and an incenti\
ve )Tj
T*
(to have fewer children after marriage. The woman who must stay home to )Tj
T*
(take care of her children must forego the income she could earn outside \
)Tj
T*
(the home. Research indicates that female wage employment outside the hom\
e )Tj
T*
(is related to fertility reduction. Programs to increase the women's labo\
r )Tj
T*
(force participation must, however, take account of the overall demand fo\
r )Tj
T*
(labor; this would be a particular problem in occupations where there is \
)Tj
T*
(already widespread unemployment among males. But other occupations where\
)Tj
T*
(women have a comparative advantage can be encouraged. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Improving the legal and social status of women gives women a greate\
r )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(voice in decision-making about their lives, including family size, and c\
an )Tj
T*
(provide alternative opportunities to childbearing, thereby reducing the \
)Tj
T*
(benefits of having children. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The U.S. Delegation to the Bucharest Conference emphasized the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(importance of improving the general status of women and of developing )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(89 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
520 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(employment opportunities for women outside the home and off the farm. It\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(was joined by all countries in adopting a strong statement on this vital\
)Tj
T*
(issue. See Chapter VI for a fuller discussion of the conference. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Recommendation: )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 1. AID should communicate with and seek opportunities to assist )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(national economic development programs to increase the role of women in \
)Tj
T*
(the development process. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 2. AID should review its education/training programs \(such as U.S.\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(participant training, in-country and third-country training\) to see tha\
t )Tj
T*
(such activities provide equal access to women. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 3. AID should enlarge pre-vocational and vocational training to )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(involve women more directly in learning skills which can enhance their )Tj
T*
(income and status in the community \(e.g. paramedical skills related to \
)Tj
T*
(provision of family planning services\). )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 4. AID should encourage the development and placement of LDC women \
as )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(decision-makers in development programs, particularly those programs )Tj
T*
(designed to increase the role of women as producers of goods and service\
s, )Tj
T*
(and otherwise to improve women's welfare \(e.g. national credit and fina\
nce )Tj
T*
(programs, and national health and family planning programs\). )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 5. AID should encourage, where possible, women's active participati\
on )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(in the labor movement in order to promote equal pay for equal work, equa\
l )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(benefits, and equal employment opportunities. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 6. AID should continue to review its programs and projects for thei\
r )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(impact on LDC women, and adjust them as necessary to foster greater )Tj
T*
(participation of women - particularly those in the lowest classes - in t\
he )Tj
T*
(development process. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(4. Developing Alternatives to the Social Security Role Provided By )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Children to Aging Parents )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Discussion: )Tj
T*
( In most LDCs the almost total absence of government or other )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(institutional forms of social security for old people forces dependence \
on )Tj
T*
(children for old age survival. The need for such support appears to be o\
ne )Tj
T*
(of the important motivations for having numerous children. Several )Tj
T*
(proposals have been made, and a few pilot experiments are being conducte\
d, )Tj
T*
(to test the impact of financial incentives designed to provide old age )Tj
T*
(support \(or, more tangentially, to increase the earning power of fewer \
)Tj
T*
(children by financing education costs parents would otherwise bear\). )Tj
T*
(Proposals have been made for son-insurance \(provided to the parents if \
)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(90 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
521 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(they have no more than three children\), and for deferred payments of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(retirement benefits \(again tied to specified limits on family size\), w\
here )Tj
T*
(the payment of the incentive is delayed. The intent is not only to tie t\
he )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(incentive to actual fertility, but to impose the financial cost on the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(government or private sector entity only after the benefits of the avoid\
ed )Tj
T*
(births have accrued to the economy and the financing entity. Schemes of \
)Tj
T*
(varying administrative complexity have been developed to take account of\
)Tj
T*
(management problems in LDCs. The economic and equity core of these long-\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(term incentive proposals is simple: the government offers to return to t\
he )Tj
T*
(contracting couple a portion of the economic dividend they generate by )Tj
T*
(avoiding births, as a direct trade-off for the personal financial benefi\
ts )Tj
T*
(they forego by having fewer children. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Further research and experimentation in this area needs to take int\
o )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(account the impact of growing urbanization in LDCs on traditional rural \
)Tj
T*
(values and outlooks such as the desire for children as old-age insurance\
. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Recommendation: )Tj
T*
( AID should take a positive stance with respect to exploration of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(social security type incentives as described above. AID should encourage\
)Tj
T*
(governments to consider such measures, and should provide financial and \
)Tj
T*
(technical assistance where appropriate. The recommendation made earlier \
to )Tj
T*
(establish an "intermediary" institutional capacity which could provide L\
DC )Tj
T*
(governments with substantial assistance in this area, among several area\
s )Tj
T*
(on the "demand" side of the problem, would add considerably to AID's )Tj
T*
(ability to carry out this recommendation. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(5. Pursuing Development Strategies that Skew Income Growth Toward the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Poor, Especially Rural Development Focusing on Rural Poverty )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Income distribution and rural development)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(: The higher a family's )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(income, the fewer children it will probably have, except at the very top\
)Tj
T*
(of the income scale. Similarly, the more evenly distributed the income i\
n )Tj
T*
(a society, the lower the overall fertility rate seems to be since better\
)Tj
T*
(income distribution means that the poor, who have the highest fertility,\
)Tj
T*
(have higher income. Thus a development strategy which emphasizes the rur\
al )Tj
T*
(poor, who are the largest and poorest group in most LDCs would be )Tj
T*
(providing income increases to those with the highest fertility levels. N\
o )Tj
T*
(LDC is likely to achieve population stability unless the rural poor )Tj
T*
(participate in income increases and fertility declines. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Agriculture and rural development is already, along with population\
, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the U.S. Government's highest priority in provision of assistance to LDC\
s. )Tj
T*
(For FY 1975, about 60% of the $1.13 billion AID requested in the five )Tj
T*
(functional areas of the foreign assistance legislation is in agriculture\
)Tj
T*
(and rural development. The $255 million increase in the FY 1975 level )Tj
T*
(authorized in the two year FY 1974 authorization bill is virtually all f\
or )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(91 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
522 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(agriculture and rural development. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( AID's primary goal in agriculture and rural development is )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(concentration in food output and increases in the rural quality of life;\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the major strategy element is concentration on increasing the output of \
)Tj
T*
(small farmers, through assistance in provision of improved technologies,\
)Tj
T*
(agricultural inputs, institutional supports, etc. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( This strategy addresses three U.S. interests: First, it increases )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(agricultural output in the LDCs, and speeds up the average pace of their\
)Tj
T*
(development, which, as has been noted, leads to increased acceptance of \
)Tj
T*
(family planning. Second, the emphasis on small farmers and other element\
s )Tj
T*
(of the rural poor spreads the benefits of development as broadly as is )Tj
T*
(feasible among lower income groups. As noted above spreading the benefit\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(of development to the poor, who tend to have the highest fertility rates\
, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(is an important step in getting them to reduce their family size. In )Tj
T*
(addition, the concentration on small farmer production \(vs., for exampl\
e, )Tj
T*
(highly mechanized, large-scale agriculture\) can increase on and off far\
m )Tj
T*
(rural job opportunities and decrease the flow to the cities. While )Tj
T*
(fertility levels in rural areas are higher than in the cities, continued\
)Tj
T*
(rapid migration into the cities at levels greater than the cities' job )Tj
T*
(markets or services can sustain adds an important destabilizing element \
to )Tj
T*
(development efforts and goals of many countries. Indeed, urban areas in \
)Tj
T*
(some LDCs are already the scene of urban unrest and high crime rates. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Recommendation )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( AID should continue its efforts to focus not just on agriculture an\
d )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(rural development but specifically on small farmers and on labor-intensi\
ve )Tj
T*
(means of stimulating agricultural output and on other aspects of improvi\
ng )Tj
T*
(the quality of life of the rural poor, so that agriculture and rural )Tj
T*
(development assistance, in addition to its importance for increased food\
)Tj
T*
(production and other purposes, can have maximum impact on reducing )Tj
T*
(population growth. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(6. Concentration on Education and Indoctrination of The Rising Generatio\
n )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(of Children Regarding the Desirability of Smaller Family Size )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Discussion: )Tj
T*
( Present efforts at reducing birth rates in LDCs, including AID and \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(UNFPA assistance, are directed largely at adults now in their reproducti\
ve )Tj
T*
(years. Only nominal attention is given to population education or sex )Tj
T*
(education in schools and in most countries none is given in the very ear\
ly )Tj
T*
(grades which are the only attainment of 2/3-3/4 of the children. It shou\
ld )Tj
T*
(be obvious, however, that efforts at birth control directed toward adult\
s )Tj
T*
(will with even maximum success result in acceptance of contraception for\
)Tj
T*
(the reduction of births only to the level of the desired family size -- \
)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(92 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
523 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(which knowledge, attitude and practice studies in many countries indicat\
e )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(is an average of four or more children. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The great necessity is to convince the masses of the population tha\
t )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(it is to their individual and national interest to have, on the average,\
)Tj
T*
(only three and then only two children. There is little likelihood that )Tj
T*
(this result can be accomplished very widely against the background of th\
e )Tj
T*
(cultural heritage of today's adults, even the young adults, among the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(masses in most LDCs. Without diminishing in any way the effort to reach \
)Tj
T*
(these adults, the obvious increased focus of attention should be to chan\
ge )Tj
T*
(the attitudes of the next generation, those who are now in elementary )Tj
T*
(school or younger. If this could be done, it would indeed be possible to\
)Tj
T*
(attain a level of fertility approaching replacement in 20 years and )Tj
T*
(actually reaching it in 30. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Because a large percentage of children from high-fertility, low-)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(income groups do not attend school, it will be necessary to develop mean\
s )Tj
T*
(to reach them for this and other educational purposes through informal )Tj
T*
(educational programs. As the discussion earlier of the determinants of )Tj
T*
(family size \(fertility\) pointed out, it is also important to make )Tj
T*
(significant progress in other areas, such as better health care and )Tj
T*
(improvements in income distribution, before desired family size can be )Tj
T*
(expected to fall sharply. If it makes economic sense for poor parents to\
)Tj
T*
(have large families twenty years from now, there is no evidence as to )Tj
T*
(whether population education or indoctrination will have sufficient impa\
ct )Tj
T*
(alone to dissuade them. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Recommendation )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 1. That U.S. agencies stress the importance of education of the nex\
t )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(generation of parents, starting in elementary schools, toward a two-chil\
d )Tj
T*
(family ideal. 2. That AID stimulate specific efforts to develop mea\
ns )Tj
T*
(of educating children of elementary school age to the ideal of the two-)Tj
T*
(child family and that UNESCO be asked to take the lead through formal an\
d )Tj
T*
(informal education. General Recommendation for UN Agencies )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( As to each of the above six categories State and AID should make )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(specific efforts to have the relevant UN agency, WHO, ILO, FAO, UNESCO, \
)Tj
T*
(UNICEF, and the UNFPA take its proper role of leadership in the UN famil\
y )Tj
T*
(with increased program effort, citing the World Population Plan of Actio\
n. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(II. )Tj
T*
(C. Food for Peace Program and Population )Tj
T*
(Discussion: )Tj
T*
( One of the most fundamental aspects of the impact of population )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(93 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
524 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(growth on the political and economic well-being of the globe is its )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(relationship to food. Here the problem of the interrelationship of )Tj
T*
(population, national resources, environment, productivity and political \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and economic stability come together when shortages of this basic human \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(need occur. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( USDA projections indicate that the quantity of grain imports needed\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(by the LDCs in the 1980s will grow significantly, both in overall and pe\
r )Tj
T*
(capita terms. In addition, these countries will face year-to-year )Tj
T*
(fluctuations in production due to the influence of weather and other )Tj
T*
(factors. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( This is not to say that the LDCs need face starvation in the next t\
wo )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(decades, for the same projections indicate an even greater increase in )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(production of grains in the developed nations. It should be pointed out,\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(however, that these projections assume that such major problems as the )Tj
T*
(vast increase in the need for fresh water, the ecological effects of the\
)Tj
T*
(vast increase in the application of fertilizer, pesticides, and )Tj
T*
(irrigation, and the apparent adverse trend in the global climate, are )Tj
T*
(solved. At present, there are no solutions to these problems in sight. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The major challenge will be to increase food production in the LDCs\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(themselves and to liberalize the system in which grain is transferred )Tj
T*
(commercially from producer to consumer countries. We also see food aid a\
s )Tj
T*
(an important way of meeting part of the chronic shortfall and emergency \
)Tj
T*
(needs caused by year-to-year variation at least through the end of this \
)Tj
T*
(decade. Many outside experts predict just such difficulties even if majo\
r )Tj
T*
(efforts are undertaken to expand world agricultural output, especially i\
n )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the LDCs themselves but also in the U.S. and in other major feed grain )Tj
T*
(producers. In the longer run, LDCs must both decrease population growth \
)Tj
T*
(and increase agricultural production significantly. At some point the )Tj
T*
("excess capacity" of the food exporting countries will run out. Some )Tj
T*
(countries have already moved from a net food exporter to a net importer \
of )Tj
T*
(food. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( There are major interagency studies now progressing in the food are\
a )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and this report cannot go deeply into this field. It can only point to )Tj
T*
(serious problems as they relate to population and suggest minimum )Tj
T*
(requirements and goals in the food area. In particular, we believe that \
)Tj
T*
(population growth may have very serious negative consequences on food )Tj
T*
(production in the LDCs including over-expectations of the capacity of th\
e )Tj
T*
(land to produce, downgrading the ecological economics of marginal areas,\
)Tj
T*
(and overharvesting the seas. All of these conditions may affect the )Tj
T*
(viability of the world's economy and thereby its prospects for peace and\
)Tj
T*
(security. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Recommendations: )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(94 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
525 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
( Since NSC/CIEP studies are already underway we refer the reader to \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(them. However the following, we believe, are minimum requirements for an\
y )Tj
T*
(strategy which wishes to avoid instability and conflict brought on by )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population growth and food scarcity: )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( \(1\) High priority for U.S. bilateral and multilateral LDC )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Agricultural Assistance; including efforts by the LDCs to improve food )Tj
T*
(production and distribution with necessary institutional adjustments and\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(economic policies to stimulate efficient production. This must include a\
)Tj
T*
(significant increase in financial and technical aid to promote more )Tj
T*
(efficient production and distribution in the LDCs. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( \(2\) Development of national food stocks)Tj
ET
1 0 0 RG
0.379 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d
354.288 572.909 m
369.146 572.909 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 354.2879 574.0459 Tm
(15)Tj
0 0 0 rg
( \(including those needed for )Tj
-26.4 -1.343 Td
(emergency relief\) within an internationally agreed framework sufficient\
to )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(provide an adequate level of world food security; )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( \(3\) Expansion of production of the input elements of food product\
ion )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(\(i.e., fertilizer, availability of water and high yield seed stocks\) a\
nd )Tj
T*
(increased incentives for expanded agricultural productivity. In this )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(context a reduction in the real cost of energy \(especially fuel\) eithe\
r )Tj
T*
(through expansion in availability through new sources or decline in the \
)Tj
T*
(relative price of oil or both would be of great importance; )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( \(4\) Significant expansion of U.S. and other producer country food\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(crops within the context of a liberalized and efficient world trade syst\
em )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(that will assure food availability to the LDCs in case of severe shortag\
e. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(New international trade arrangements for agricultural products, open )Tj
T*
(enough to permit maximum production by efficient producers and flexible \
)Tj
T*
(enough to dampen wide price fluctuations in years when weather condition\
s )Tj
T*
(result in either significant shortfalls or surpluses. We believe this )Tj
T*
(objective can be achieved by trade liberalization and an internationally\
)Tj
T*
(coordinated food reserve program without resorting to price-oriented )Tj
T*
(agreements, which have undesirable effects on both production and )Tj
T*
(distribution; )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( \(5\) The maintenance of an adequate food aid program with a cleare\
r )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(focus on its use as a means to make up real food deficits, pending the )Tj
T*
(development of their own food resources, in countries unable to feed )Tj
T*
(themselves rather than as primarily an economic development or foreign )Tj
T*
(policy instrument; and )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( \(6\) A strengthened research effort, including long term, to devel\
op )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(new seed and farming technologies, primarily to increase yields but also\
)Tj
T*
(to permit more extensive cultivation techniques, particularly in LDCs. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(III. International Organizations and other Multilateral Population )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Programs )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(95 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
526 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(A. UN Organization and Specialized Agencies )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Discussion )Tj
T*
( In the mid-sixties the UN member countries slowly began to agree on\
a )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(greater involvement of the United Nations in population matters. In 1967\
)Tj
T*
(the Secretary-General created a Trust Fund to finance work in the )Tj
T*
(population field. In 1969 the Fund was renamed the United Nations Fund f\
or )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Population Activities \(UNFPA\) and placed under the overall supervision\
of )Tj
T*
(the United Nations Development Program. During this period, also, the )Tj
T*
(mandates of the Specialized Agencies were modified to permit greater )Tj
T*
(involvement by these agencies in population activities. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( UNFPA's role was clarified by an ECOSOC resolution in 1973: \(a\) t\
o )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(build up the knowledge and capacity to respond to the needs in the )Tj
T*
(population and family planning fields; \(b\) to promote awareness in bot\
h )Tj
T*
(developed and developing countries of the social, economic, and )Tj
T*
(environmental implications of population problems; \(c\) to extend )Tj
T*
(assistance to developing countries; and \(d\) to promote population prog\
rams )Tj
T*
(and to coordinate projects supported by the UNFPA. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Most of the projects financed by UNFPA are implemented with the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(assistance of organizations of the Untied Nations system, including the \
)Tj
T*
(regional Economic Commission, United Nations Children's Fund \(UNICEF\),\
)Tj
T*
(International Labour Organization \(ILO\), Food and Agriculture Organiza\
tion )Tj
T*
(\(FAO\), United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization\
)Tj
T*
(\(UNESCO\), the World Health Organization \(WHO\). Collaborative arrange\
ments )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(have been made with the International Development Association \(IDA\), a\
n )Tj
T*
(affiliate of the World Bank, and with the World Food Programme. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Increasingly the UNFPA is moving toward comprehensive country )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(programs negotiated directly with governments. This permits the )Tj
T*
(governments to select the implementing \(executing\) agency which may be\
a )Tj
T*
(member of the UN system or a non-government organization or company. Wit\
h )Tj
T*
(the development of the country program approach it is planned to level o\
ff )Tj
T*
(UNFPA funding to the specialized agencies. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( UNFPA has received $122 million in voluntary contributions from 65 \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(governments, of which $42 million was raised in 1973. The Work Plan of )Tj
T*
(UNFPA for 1974-77 sets a $280 million goal for fund-raising, as follows:\
)Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( 1974 - $54 million)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
( 1975 - $64 million)Tj
T*
( 1976 - $76 million)Tj
T*
( 1977 - $86 million)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(96 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
527 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(Through 1971 the U.S. had contributed approximately half of all the fund\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(contributed to UNFPA. In 1972 we reduced our matching contribution to 48\
)Tj
T*
(percent of other donations, and for 1973 we further reduced our )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(contribution to 45%. In 1973 requests for UNFPA assistance had begun to \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(exceed available resources. This trend has accelerated and demand for )Tj
T*
(UNFPA resources is now strongly outrunning supply. Documented need for )Tj
T*
(UNFPA assistance during the years 1974-77 is $350 million, but because t\
he )Tj
T*
(UNFPA could anticipate that only $280 million will be available it has )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(been necessary to phase the balance to at least 1978. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Recommendations )Tj
T*
( The U.S. should continue its support of multilateral efforts in the\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population field by: )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( a\) increasing, subject to congressional appropriation action, the \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(absolute contribution to the UNFPA in light of 1\) mounting demands for \
)Tj
T*
(UNFPA Assistance, 2\) improving UNFPA capacity to administer projects, 3\
\) )Tj
T*
(the extent to which UNFPA funding aims at U.S. objectives and will )Tj
T*
(substitute for U.S. funding, 4\) the prospect that without increased U.S\
. )Tj
T*
(contributions the UNFPA will be unable to raise sufficient funds for its\
)Tj
T*
(budget in 1975 and beyond; )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( b\) initiating or participating in an effort to increase the resour\
ces )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(from other donors made available to international agencies that can work\
)Tj
T*
(effectively in the population area as both to increase overall populatio\
n )Tj
T*
(efforts and, in the UNFPA, to further reduce the U.S. percentage share o\
f )Tj
T*
(total contributions; and )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( c\) supporting the coordinating role which UNFPA plays among donor \
and )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(recipient countries, and among UN and other organizations in the )Tj
T*
(population field, including the World Bank. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(B. Encouraging Private Organizations )Tj
T*
(Discussion: )Tj
T*
( The cooperation of private organizations and groups on a national, \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(regional and world-wide level is essential to the success of a )Tj
T*
(comprehensive population strategy. These groups provide important )Tj
T*
(intellectual contributions and policy support, as well as the delivery o\
f )Tj
T*
(family planning and health services and information. In some countries, \
)Tj
T*
(the private and voluntary organizations are the only means of providing \
)Tj
T*
(family planning services and materials. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Recommendations: )Tj
T*
( AID should continue to provide support to those private U.S. and )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(97 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
528 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(international organizations whose work contributes to reducing rapid )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population growth, and to develop with them, where appropriate, geograph\
ic )Tj
T*
(and functional divisions of labor in population assistance. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(IV. Provision and Development of Family Planning Services, Information a\
nd )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Technology )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In addition to creating the climate for fertility decline, as )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(described in a previous section, it is essential to provide safe and )Tj
T*
(effective techniques for controlling fertility. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( There are two main elements in this task: \(a\) improving the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(effectiveness of the existing means of fertility control and developing \
)Tj
T*
(new ones; and \(b\) developing low-cost systems for the delivery of fami\
ly )Tj
T*
(planning technologies, information and related services to the 85% of LD\
C )Tj
T*
(populations not now reached. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Legislation and policies affecting what the U.S. Government does )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(relative to abortion in the above areas is discussed at the end of this \
)Tj
T*
(section. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(IV. A. Research to Improve Fertility Control Technology )Tj
T*
(Discussion )Tj
T*
( The effort to reduce population growth requires a variety of birth \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(control methods which are safe, effective, inexpensive and attractive to\
)Tj
T*
(both men and women. The developing countries in particular need methods \
)Tj
T*
(which do not require physicians and which are suitable for use in )Tj
T*
(primitive, remote rural areas or urban slums by people with relatively l\
ow )Tj
T*
(motivation. Experiences in family planning have clearly demonstrated the\
)Tj
T*
(crucial impact of improved technology on fertility control. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( None of the currently available methods of fertility control is )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(completely effective and free of adverse reactions and objectionable )Tj
T*
(characteristics. The ideal of a contraceptive, perfect in all these )Tj
T*
(respects, may never be realized. A great deal of effort and money will b\
e )Tj
T*
(necessary to improve fertility control methods. The research to achieve \
)Tj
T*
(this aim can be divided into two categories: )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
(1. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Short-term approaches)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(: These include applied and )Tj
T*
(developmental work which is required to perfect further and )Tj
T*
(evaluate the safety and role of methods demonstrated to be )Tj
T*
(effective in family planning programs in the developing )Tj
T*
(countries. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Other work is directed toward new methods based on well )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(established knowledge about the physiology of reproduction. )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(98 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
529 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 756.2309 Tm
(Although short term pay-offs are possible, successful )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(development of some methods may take 5 years and up to $15 )Tj
T*
(million for a single method. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(2. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Long-term approaches)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(: The limited state of fundamental )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(knowledge of many reproductive processes requires that a strong )Tj
T*
(research effort of a more basic nature be maintained to )Tj
T*
(elucidate these processes and provide leads for contraceptive )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(development research. For example, new knowledge of male )Tj
T*
(reproductive processes is needed before research to develop a )Tj
T*
(male "pill" can come to fruition. Costs and duration of the )Tj
T*
(required research are high and difficult to quantify. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( With expenditures of about $30 million annually, a broad )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(program of basic and applied bio-medical research on human )Tj
T*
(reproduction and contraceptive development is carried out by the )Tj
T*
(Center for Population Research of the National Institute of )Tj
T*
(Child Health and Human Development. The Agency for International )Tj
T*
(Development annually funds about $5 million of principally )Tj
T*
(applied research on new means of fertility control suitable for )Tj
T*
(use in developing countries. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Smaller sums are spent by other agencies of the U.S. Government. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Coordination of the federal research effort is facilitated by )Tj
T*
(the activities of the Interagency Committee on Population )Tj
T*
(Research. This committee prepares an annual listing and analyses )Tj
T*
(of all government supported population research programs. The )Tj
T*
(listing is published in the )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Inventory of Federal Population )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Research)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(A variety of studies have been undertaken by non-governmental )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(experts including the U.S. Commission on Population Growth and )Tj
T*
(the American Future. Most of these studies indicate that the )Tj
T*
(United States effort in population research is insufficient. )Tj
T*
(Opinions differ on how much more can be spent wisely and )Tj
T*
(effectively but an additional $25-50 million annually for bio-)Tj
T*
(medical research constitutes a conservative estimate. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
(Recommendations: )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( A stepwise increase over the next 3 years to a total of about $100 \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(million annually for fertility and contraceptive research is recommended\
. )Tj
T*
(This is an increase of $60 million over the current $40 million expended\
)Tj
T*
(annually by the major Federal Agencies for bio-medical research. Of this\
)Tj
T*
(increase $40 million would be spent on short-term, goal directed researc\
h. )Tj
T*
(The current expenditure of $20 million in long-term approaches consistin\
g )Tj
T*
(largely of basic bio-medical research would be doubled. This increased )Tj
T*
(effort would require significantly increased staffing of the federal )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(99 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
530 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(agencies which support this work. Areas recommended for further research\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(are: )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
(1. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Short-term approaches)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(: These approaches include improvement )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and field testing of existing technology and development of new )Tj
T*
(technology. It is expected that some of these approaches would )Tj
T*
(be ready for use within five years. Specific short term )Tj
T*
(approaches worthy of increased effort are as follows: )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(a. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Oral contraceptives)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( have become popular and widely used; yet )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the optimal steroid hormone combinations and doses for LDC )Tj
T*
(populations need further definition. Field studies in several )Tj
T*
(settings are required. Approx. Increased Cost: $3 million )Tj
T*
(annually. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(b. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Intra-uterine devices)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( of differing size, shape, and )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(bioactivity should be developed and tested to determine the )Tj
T*
(optimum levels of effectiveness, safety, and acceptability. )Tj
T*
(Approx. Increased Cost: $3 million annually. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(c. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Improved methods for ovulation prediction)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( will be important )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(to those couples who wish to practice rhythm with more assurance )Tj
T*
(of effectiveness than they now have. Approx. Increased Cost: $3 )Tj
T*
(million annually. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(d. Sterilization of men and women has received wide-spread )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(acceptance in several areas when a simple, quick, and safe )Tj
T*
(procedure is readily available. Female sterilization has been )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(improved by technical advances with laparoscopes, culdoscopes, )Tj
T*
(and greatly simplifies abdominal surgical techniques. Further )Tj
T*
(improvements by the use of tubal clips, trans-cervical )Tj
T*
(approaches, and simpler techniques can be developed. For men )Tj
T*
(several current techniques hold promise but require more )Tj
T*
(refinement and evaluation. Approx. Increased Cost $6 million )Tj
T*
(annually. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(e. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Injectable contraceptives)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( for women which are effective for )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(three months or more and are administered by para-professionals )Tj
T*
(undoubtedly will be a significant improvement. Currently )Tj
T*
(available methods of this type are limited by their side effects )Tj
T*
(and potential hazards. There are reasons to believe that these )Tj
T*
(problems can be overcome with additional research. Approx. )Tj
T*
(Increased Cost: $5 million annually. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(f. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Leuteolytic and anti-progesterone)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( approaches to fertility )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(control including use of prostaglandins are theoretically )Tj
T*
(attractive but considerable work remains to be done. Approx. )Tj
T*
(Increased Cost: $7 million annually. )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(100 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
531 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 745.639 Tm
(g. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Non-Clinical Methods)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. Additional research on non-clinical )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(methods including foams, creams, and condoms is needed. These )Tj
T*
(methods can be used without medical supervision. Approx. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Increased Cost; $5 million annually. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(h. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Field studies)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. Clinical trials of new methods in use settings )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(are essential to test their worth in developing countries and to )Tj
T*
(select the best of several possible methods in a given setting. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Approx. Increased Cost: $8 million annually. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(2. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Long-term approaches)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(: Increased research toward better )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(understanding of human reproductive physiology will lead to )Tj
T*
(better methods of fertility control for use in five to fifteen )Tj
T*
(years. A great deal has yet to be learned about basic aspects of )Tj
T*
(male and female fertility and how regulation can be effected. )Tj
T*
(For example, an effective and safe male contraceptive is needed, )Tj
T*
(in particular an injection which will be effective for specified )Tj
T*
(periods of time. Fundamental research must be done but there are )Tj
T*
(reasons to believe that the development of an injectable male )Tj
T*
(contraceptive is feasible. Another method which should be )Tj
T*
(developed is an injection which will assure a woman of regular )Tj
T*
(periods. The drug would be given by para-professionals once a )Tj
T*
(month or as needed to regularize the menstrual cycle. Recent )Tj
T*
(scientific advances indicate that this method can be developed. )Tj
T*
(Approx. Increased Cost: $20 million annually. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
(Development of Low-cost Delivery Systems )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Discussion )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Exclusive of China, only 10-15% of LDC populations are currently )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(effectively reached by family planning activities. If efforts to reduce \
)Tj
T*
(rapid population growth are to be successful it is essential that the )Tj
T*
(neglected 85-90% of LDC populations have access to convenient, reliable \
)Tj
T*
(family planning services. Moreover, these people -- largely in rural but\
)Tj
T*
(also in urban areas -- not only tend to have the highest fertility, they\
)Tj
T*
(simultaneously suffer the poorest health, the worst nutritional levels, \
)Tj
T*
(and the highest infant mortality rates. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Family planning services in LDCs are currently provided by the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(following means: )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
(1. Government-run clinics or centers which offer family planning )Tj
T*
(services alone; )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(2. Government-run clinics or centers which offer family planning )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(as part of a broader based health service; )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(101 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
532 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 579.08 594.312 187.845 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 756.2309 Tm
(and analyzing adequate and reliable demographic data to be used )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(in promoting awareness of the problem and in formulating )Tj
T*
(appropriate policies and programs. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(5. USIA. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(As a major part of U.S. information policy, the improving but )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(still limited programs of USIA to convey information on )Tj
T*
(population matters should be strengthened to a level )Tj
T*
(commensurate with the importance of the subject. )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(111 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
533 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 747.9592 Tm
(3. Government-run programs that emphasize door to door contact )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(by family planning workers who deliver contraceptives to those )Tj
T*
(desiring them and/or make referrals to clinics; )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(4. Clinics or centers run by private organizations \(e.g., family )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(planning associations\); )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(5. Commercial channels which in many countries sell condoms, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(oral contraceptives, and sometimes spermicidal foam over the )Tj
T*
(counter; )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(6. Private physicians. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
(Two of these means in particular hold promise for allowing significant )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(expansion of services to the neglected poor: )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
(1. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Integrated Delivery Systems)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. This approach involves the )Tj
T*
(provision of family planning in conjunction with health and/or )Tj
T*
(nutrition services, primarily through government-run programs. )Tj
T*
(There are simple logistical reasons which argue for providing )Tj
T*
(these services on an integrated basis. Very few of the LDCs have )Tj
T*
(the resources, both in financial and manpower terms, to enable )Tj
T*
(them to deploy individual types of services to the neglected 85% )Tj
T*
(of their populations. By combining a variety of services in one )Tj
T*
(delivery mechanism they can attain maximum impact with the )Tj
T*
(scarce resources available. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(In addition, the provision of family planning in the context of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(broader health services can help make family planning more )Tj
T*
(acceptable to LDC leaders and individuals who, for a variety of )Tj
T*
(reasons \(some ideological, some simply humanitarian\) object to )Tj
T*
(family planning. Family planning in the health context shows a )Tj
T*
(concern for the well-being of the family as a whole and not just )Tj
T*
(for a couple's reproductive function. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Finally, providing integrated family planning and health )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(services on a broad basis would help the U.S. contend with the )Tj
T*
(ideological charge that the U.S. is more interested in curbing )Tj
T*
(the numbers of LDC people than it is in their future and well-)Tj
T*
(being. While it can be argued, and argued effectively, that )Tj
T*
(limitation of numbers may well be one of the most critical )Tj
T*
(factors in enhancing development potential and improving the )Tj
T*
(chances for well-being, we should recognize that those who argue )Tj
T*
(along ideological lines have made a great deal of the fact that )Tj
T*
(the U.S. contribution to development programs and health )Tj
T*
(programs has steadily shrunk, whereas funding for population )Tj
T*
(programs has steadily increased. While many explanations may be )Tj
T*
(brought forward to explain these trends, the fact is that they )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(102 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
534 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 754.1708 Tm
(have been an ideological liability to the U.S. in its crucial )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(developing relationships with the LDCs. A.I.D. currently spends )Tj
T*
(about $35 million annually in bilateral programs on the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(provision of family planning services through integrated )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(delivery systems. Any action to expand such systems must aim at )Tj
T*
(the deployment of truly low-cost services. Health-related )Tj
T*
(services which involve costly physical structures, high skill )Tj
T*
(requirements, and expensive supply methods will not produce the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(desired deployment in any reasonable time. The basic test of low-)Tj
T*
(cost methods will be whether the LDC governments concerned can )Tj
T*
(assume responsibility for the financial, administrative, )Tj
T*
(manpower and other elements of these service extensions. )Tj
T*
(Utilizing existing indigenous structures and personnel )Tj
T*
(\(including traditional medical practitioners who in some )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(countries have shown a strong interest in family planning\) and )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(service methods that involve simply-trained personnel, can help )Tj
T*
(keep costs within LDC resource capabilities. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(2. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(Commercial Channels)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(. In an increasing number of LDCs, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(contraceptives \(such as condoms, foam and the Pill\) are being )Tj
T*
(made available without prescription requirements through )Tj
T*
(commercial channels such as drugstores.)Tj
ET
1 0 0 RG
0.379 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d
352.519 439.075 m
367.377 439.075 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 352.5191 440.2113 Tm
(16)Tj
0 0 0 rg
( The commercial )Tj
-23.4 -1.343 Td
(approach offers a practical, low-cost means of providing family )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(planning services, since it utilizes an existing distribution )Tj
T*
(system and does not involve financing the further expansion of )Tj
T*
(public clinical delivery facilities. Both A.I.D. and private )Tj
T*
(organizations like the IPPF are currently testing commercial )Tj
T*
(distribution schemes in various LDCs to obtain further )Tj
T*
(information on the feasibility, costs, and degree of family )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(planning acceptance achieved through this approach. A.I.D. is )Tj
T*
(currently spending about $2 million annually in this area. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
( In order to stimulate LDC provision of adequate family planning )Tj
T*
(services, whether alone or in conjunction with health services, A.I.D. h\
as )Tj
T*
(subsidized contraceptive purchases for a number of years. In FY 1973 )Tj
T*
(requests from A.I.D. bilateral and grantee programs for contraceptive )Tj
T*
(supplies -- in particular for oral contraceptives and condoms -- increas\
ed )Tj
T*
(markedly, and have continued to accelerate in FY 1974. Additional rapid \
)Tj
T*
(expansion in demand is expected over the next several years as the )Tj
T*
(accumulated population/family planning efforts of the past decade gain )Tj
T*
(momentum. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( While it is useful to subsidize provision of contraceptives in the \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(short term in order to expand and stimulate LDC family planning programs\
, )Tj
T*
(in the long term it will not be possible to fully fund demands for )Tj
T*
(commodities, as well as other necessary family planning actions, within \
A.)Tj
T*
(I.D. and other donor budgets. These costs must ultimately be borne by LD\
C )Tj
T*
(governments and/or individual consumers. Therefore, A.I.D. will )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(103 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
535 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(increasingly focus on developing contraceptive production and procuremen\
t )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(capacities by the LDCs themselves. A.I.D. must, however, be prepared to \
)Tj
T*
(continue supplying large quantities of contraceptives over the next )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(several years to avoid a detrimental hiatus in program supply lines whil\
e )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(efforts are made to expand LDC production and procurement actions. A.I.D\
. )Tj
T*
(should also encourage other donors and multilateral organizations to )Tj
T*
(assume a greater share of the effort, in regard both to the short-term )Tj
T*
(actions to subsidize contraceptive supplies and the longer-term actions \
to )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(develop LDC capacities for commodity production and procurement. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Recommendations: )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
(1. A.I.D. should aim its population assistance program to help )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(achieve adequate coverage of couples having the highest )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(fertility who do not now have access to family planning )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(services. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(2. The service delivery approaches which seem to hold greatest )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(promise of reaching these people should be vigorously pursued. )Tj
T*
(For example: )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(a. The U.S. should indicate its willingness to join with other )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(donors and organizations to encourage further action by LDC )Tj
T*
(governments and other institutions to provide low-cost family )Tj
T*
(planning and health services to groups in their populations who )Tj
T*
(are not now reached by such services. In accordance with Title X )Tj
T*
(of the AID Legislation and current policy, A.I.D. should be )Tj
T*
(prepared to provide substantial assistance in this area in )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(response to sound requests. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(b. The services provided must take account of the capacities of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the LDC governments or institutions to absorb full )Tj
T*
(responsibility, over reasonable timeframes, for financing and )Tj
T*
(managing the level of services involved. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(c. A.I.D. and other donor assistance efforts should utilize to )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the extent possible indigenous structures and personnel in )Tj
T*
(delivering services, and should aim at the rapid development of )Tj
T*
(local \(community\) action and sustaining capabilities. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(d. A.I.D. should continue to support experimentation with )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(commercial distribution of contraceptives and application of )Tj
T*
(useful findings in order to further explore the feasibility and )Tj
T*
(replicability of this approach. Efforts in this area by other )Tj
T*
(donors and organizations should be encouraged. Approx. U.S. )Tj
T*
(Cost: $5-10 million annually. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(3. In conjunction with other donors and organizations, A.I.D. )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(104 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
536 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 756.2309 Tm
(should actively encourage the development of LDC capabilities )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(for production and procurement of needed family planning )Tj
T*
(contraceptives. )Tj
ET
1 0 0 RG
0.379 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d
181.654 725.379 m
196.512 725.379 l
S
1 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 181.6543 726.5153 Tm
(17)Tj
0 0 0 rg
( )Tj
-12.457 -2.7 Td
(C. Utilization of Mass Media and Satellite Communications Systems for )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Family Planning )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(1. Utilization of Mass Media for Dissemination of Family Planning Servic\
es )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and Information )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The potential of education and its various media is primarily a )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(function of \(a\) target populations where socio-economic conditions wou\
ld )Tj
T*
(permit reasonable people to change their behavior with the receipt of )Tj
T*
(information about family planning and \(b\) the adequate development of \
the )Tj
T*
(substantive motivating context of the message. While dramatic limitation\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(in the availability of any family planning related message are most seve\
re )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(in rural areas of developing countries, even more serious gaps exist in \
)Tj
T*
(the understanding of the implicit incentives in the system for large )Tj
T*
(families and the potential of the informational message to alter those )Tj
T*
(conditions. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Nevertheless, progress in the technology for mass media )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(communications has led to the suggestion that the priority need might li\
e )Tj
T*
(in the utilization of this technology, particularly with large and )Tj
T*
(illiterate rural populations. While there are on-going efforts they have\
)Tj
T*
(not yet reached their full potential. Nor have the principal U.S. agenci\
es )Tj
T*
(concerned yet integrated or given sufficient priority to family planning\
)Tj
T*
(information and population programs generally. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Yet A.I.D.'s work suggests that radio, posters, printed material, a\
nd )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(various types of personal contacts by health/family planning workers ten\
d )Tj
T*
(to be more cost-effective than television except in those areas \(genera\
lly )Tj
T*
(urban\) where a TV system is already in place which reaches more than ju\
st )Tj
T*
(the middle and upper classes. There is great scope for use of mass media\
, )Tj
T*
(particularly in the initial stages of making people aware of the benefit\
s )Tj
T*
(of family planning and of services available; in this way mass media can\
)Tj
T*
(effectively complement necessary interpersonal communications. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In almost every country of the world there are channels of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(communication \(media\) available, such, as print media, radio, posters,\
and )Tj
T*
(personal contacts, which already reach the vast majority of the )Tj
T*
(population. For example, studies in India - with only 30% literacy, show\
)Tj
T*
(that most of the population is aware of the government's family planning\
)Tj
T*
(program. If response is low it is not because of lack of media to transm\
it )Tj
T*
(information. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( A.I.D. believes that the best bet in media strategy is to encourage\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(intensive use of media already available, or available at relatively low\
)Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(105 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
537 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(cost. For example, radio is a medium which in some countries already )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(reaches a sizeable percentage of the rural population; a recent A.I.D. )Tj
T*
(financed study by Stanford indicates that radio is as effective as )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(television, costs one-fifth as much, and offers more opportunities for )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(programming for local needs and for local feedback. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Recommendations )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(USAID and USIA should encourage other population donors and organization\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(to develop comprehensive information and educational programs dealing wi\
th )Tj
T*
(population and family planning consistent with the geographic and )Tj
T*
(functional population emphasis discussed in other sections. Such program\
s )Tj
T*
(should make use of the results of AID's extensive experience in this fie\
ld )Tj
T*
(and should include consideration of social, cultural and economic factor\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(in population control as well as strictly technical and educational ones\
. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(2. Use of U.S. broadcast satellites for dissemination of family planning\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and health information to key LDC countries )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Discussion: )Tj
T*
( One key factor in the effective use of existing contraceptive )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(techniques has been the problem of education. In particular, this proble\
m )Tj
T*
(is most severe in rural areas of the developing countries. There is need\
)Tj
T*
(to develop a cost-effective communications system designed for rural are\
as )Tj
T*
(which, together with local direct governmental efforts, can provide )Tj
T*
(comprehensive health information and in particular, family planning )Tj
T*
(guidance. One new supporting technology which has been under development\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(is the broadcast satellite. NASA and Fairchild have now developed an ATS\
)Tj
T*
(\(Applied Technology Satellite\), now in orbit, which has the capability\
of )Tj
T*
(beaming educational television programs to isolated areas via small )Tj
T*
(inexpensive community receivers. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( NASA's sixth Applications Technology Satellite was launched into )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(geosynchronous orbit over the Galapagos Islands on May 30, 1974. It will\
)Tj
T*
(be utilized for a year in that position to deliver health and educationa\
l )Tj
T*
(services to millions of Americans in remote regions of the Rocky Mountai\
n )Tj
T*
(States, Alaska and Appalachia. During this period it will be made )Tj
T*
(available for a short time to Brazil in order to demonstrate how such a \
)Tj
T*
(broadcast satellite may be used to provide signals to 500 schools in the\
ir )Tj
T*
(existing educational television network 1400 miles northeast of Rio de )Tj
T*
(Janeiro in Rio Grande do Norte. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In mid-1975, ATS-6 will be moved to a point over the Indian Ocean t\
o )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(begin beaming educational television to India. India is now developing i\
ts )Tj
T*
(broadcast program materials. Signals picked up from one of two Indian )Tj
T*
(ground transmitters will be rebroadcast to individual stations in 2500 )Tj
T*
(villages and to ground relay installations serving networks comprising )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(106 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
538 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(3000 more. This operation over India will last one year, after which tim\
e )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(India hopes to have its own broadcast satellite in preparation. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Eventually it will be possible to broadcast directly to individual \
TV )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(sets in remote rural areas. Such a ")Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(direct broadcast satellite)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
(," which is )Tj
T*
(still under development, could one day go directly into individual TV )Tj
T*
(receivers. At present, broadcast satellite signals go to ground receivin\
g )Tj
T*
(stations and are relayed to individual television sets on a local or )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(regional basis. The latter can be used in towns, villages and schools. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( The hope is that these new technologies will provide a substantial \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(input in family planning programs, where the primary constraint lies in \
)Tj
T*
(informational services. The fact, however, is that information and )Tj
T*
(education )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
(does not)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( appear to be the primary constraint in the development )Tj
T*
(of effective family planning programs. AID itself has learned from costl\
y )Tj
T*
(intensive inputs that a supply oriented approach to family planning is n\
ot )Tj
T*
(and cannot be fully effective until the demand side - incentives and )Tj
T*
(motivations - are both understood and accounted for. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Leaving this vast problem aside, AID has much relevant experience i\
n )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(the numerous problems encountered in the use of modern communications )Tj
T*
(media for mass rural education. First, there is widespread LDC sensitivi\
ty )Tj
T*
(to satellite broadcast, expressed most vigorously in the Outer Space )Tj
T*
(Committee of the UN. Many countries don't want broadcasts of neighboring\
)Tj
T*
(countries over their own territory and fear unwanted propaganda and )Tj
T*
(subversion by hostile broadcasters. NASA experience suggests that the U.\
S. )Tj
T*
(#notemust tread very softly when discussing assistance in program conten\
t. )Tj
T*
(International restrictions may be placed on the types of proposed )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(broadcasts and it remains technically difficult to restrict broadcast ar\
ea )Tj
T*
(coverage to national boundaries. To the extent programs are developed )Tj
T*
(jointly and are appreciated and wanted by receiving countries, some )Tj
T*
(relaxation in their position might occur. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Agreement is nearly universal among practitioners of educational )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(technology that the technology is years ahead of software or content )Tj
T*
(development. Thus cost per person reached tend to be very high. In )Tj
T*
(addition, given the current technology, audiences are limited to those w\
ho )Tj
T*
(are willing to walk to the village TV set and listen to public service )Tj
T*
(messages and studies show declining audiences over time with large )Tj
T*
(audiences primarily for popular entertainment. In addition, keeping )Tj
T*
(village receivers in repair is a difficult problem. The high cost of )Tj
T*
(program development remains a serious constraint, particularly since the\
re )Tj
T*
(is so little experience in validifying program content for wide general \
)Tj
T*
(audiences. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( With these factors it is clear that one needs to proceed slowly in \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(utilization of this technology for the LDCs in the population field. )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(107 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
539 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(Recommendations: )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
(1. The work of existing networks on population, education, ITV, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(and broadcast satellites should be brought together to better )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(consolidate relative priorities for research, experimentation )Tj
T*
(and programming in family planning. Wider distribution of the )Tj
T*
(broad AID experience in these areas would probably be justified. )Tj
T*
(This is particularly true since specific studies have already )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(been done on the experimental ATS-6 programs in the U.S., )Tj
T*
(Brazil, and India and each clearly documents the very )Tj
T*
(experimental character and high costs of the effort. Thus at )Tj
T*
(this point it is clearly inconsistent with U.S. or LDC )Tj
T*
(population goals to allocate large additional sums for a )Tj
T*
(technology which is experimental. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(2. Limited donor and recipient family planning funds available )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(for education/motivation must be allocated on a cost-)Tj
T*
(effectiveness basis. Satellite TV may have opportunities for )Tj
T*
(cost-effectiveness primarily where the decision has already been )Tj
T*
(taken -- on other than family planning grounds -- to undertake )Tj
T*
(very large-scale rural TV systems. Where applicable in such )Tj
T*
(countries satellite technology should be used when cost-)Tj
T*
(effective. Research should give special attention to costs and )Tj
T*
(efficiency relative to alternative media. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(3. Where the need for education is established and an effective )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(format has been developed, we recommend more effective )Tj
T*
(exploitation of existing and conventional media: radio, printed )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(material, posters, etc., as discussed under part I above. )Tj
-2.857 -2.557 Td
(V. Action to Develop World-Wide Political and Popular Commitment to )Tj
T*
(Population Stability )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Discussion: )Tj
T*
( A far larger, high-level effort is needed to develop a greater )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(commitment of leaders of both developed and developing countries to )Tj
T*
(undertake efforts, commensurate with the need, to bring population growt\
h )Tj
T*
(under control. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In the United States, we do not yet have a domestic population poli\
cy )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(despite widespread recognition that we should -- supported by the )Tj
T*
(recommendations of the remarkable Report of the Commission on Population\
)Tj
T*
(Growth and the American Future. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Although world population growth is widely recognized within the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Government as a current danger of the highest magnitude calling for urge\
nt )Tj
T*
(measures, it does not rank high on the agendas of conversations with )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(108 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
540 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 27.4162 756.2309 Tm
(leaders of other nations. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( Nevertheless, the United States Government and private organization\
s )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(give more attention to the subject than any donor countries except, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(perhaps, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. France makes no meaningful )Tj
T*
(contribution either financially or verbally. The USSR no longer opposes \
)Tj
T*
(efforts of U.S. agencies but gives no support. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
( In the LDCs, although 31 countries, including China, have national \
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population growth control programs and 16 more include family planning i\
n )Tj
T*
(their national health services -- at least in some degree -- the )Tj
T*
(commitment by the leadership in some of these countries is neither high \
)Tj
T*
(nor wide. These programs will have only modest success until there is mu\
ch )Tj
T*
(stronger and wider acceptance of their real importance by leadership )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(groups. Such acceptance and support will be essential to assure that the\
)Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(population information, education and service programs have vital moral \
)Tj
T*
(backing, administrative capacity, technical skills and government )Tj
T*
(financing. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(Recommendations: )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
(1. Executive Branch )Tj
T*
(a. The President and the Secretary of State should make a point )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(of discussing our national concern about world population growth )Tj
T*
(in meetings with national leaders where it would be relevant. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(b. The Executive Branch should give special attention to )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(briefing the Congress on population matters to stimulate support )Tj
T*
(and leadership which the Congress has exercised in the past. A )Tj
T*
(program for this purpose should be developed by S/PM with H and )Tj
T*
(AID. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(2. World Population Conference )Tj
T*
(a. In addition to the specific recommendations for action listed )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(in the preceding sections, U.S. agencies should use the prestige )Tj
T*
(of the World Population Plan of Action to advance all of the )Tj
T*
(relevant action recommendations made by it in order to generate )Tj
T*
(more effective programs for population growth limitation. AID )Tj
T*
(should coordinate closely with the UNFPA in trying to expand )Tj
T*
(resources for population assistance programs, especially from )Tj
T*
(non-OECD, non-traditional donors. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(The U.S. should continue to play a leading role in ECOSOC and )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(General Assembly discussions and review of the WPPA. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(3. Department of State )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(109 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
541 0 obj<>stream
/Artifact <>BDC
0 0 0 rg
0 i
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 780.9596 Tm
(NSSM200)Tj
ET
EMC
/WebCaptureBG BMC
/WebCaptureFN <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0.871 0.871 0.871 rg
8.844 18 603.156 756 re
f
EMC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
1 1 1 rg
8.844 33.919 594.312 733.006 re
f
EMC
EMC
EMC
/Article <>BDC
q
0 18 612 756 re
W* n
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_1 1 Tf
12.3815 0 0 12.3815 62.7919 739.802 Tm
(a. The State Department should urge the establishment at U.N. )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(headquarters of a high level seminar for LDC cabinet and high )Tj
T*
(level officials and non-governmental leaders of comparable )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(responsibility for indoctrination in population matters. They )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(should have the opportunity in this seminar to meet the senior )Tj
T*
(officials of U.N. agencies and leading population experts from a )Tj
T*
(variety of countries. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(b. The State Department should also encourage organization of a )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(UNFPA policy staff to consult with leaders in population )Tj
T*
(programs of developing countries and other experts in population )Tj
T*
(matters to evaluate programs and consider actions needed to )Tj
T*
(improve them. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(c. A senior officer, preferably with ambassadorial experience, )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(should be assigned in each regional bureau dealing with LDCs or )Tj
T*
(in State's Population Office to give full-time attention to the )Tj
T*
(development of commitment by LDC leaders to population growth )Tj
T*
(reduction. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(d. A senior officer should be assigned to the Bureau of )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(International Organization Affairs to follow and press action by )Tj
T*
(the Specialized Agencies of the U.N. in population matters in )Tj
T*
(developing countries. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(e. Part of the present temporary staffing of S/PM for the )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(purposes of the World Population Year and the World Population )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(Conference should be continued on a permanent basis to take )Tj
T*
(advantage of momentum gained by the Year and Conference. )Tj
/T1_2 1 Tf
-2.857 -2.557 Td
(Alternate View on 3.c.)Tj
/T1_1 1 Tf
( )Tj
2.857 -2.557 Td
(c. The Department should expand its efforts to help )Tj
T*
(Ambassadorial and other high-ranking U.S.G. personnel understand )Tj
T*
(the consequences of rapid population growth and the remedial )Tj
T*
(measures possible. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(d. The Department would also give increased attention to )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(developing a commitment to population growth reduction on the )Tj
T*
(part of LDC leaders. )Tj
0 -2.557 TD
(e. Adequate manpower should be provided in S/PM and other parts )Tj
0 -1.2 TD
(of the Department as appropriate to implement these expanded )Tj
T*
(efforts. 4. A.I.D. should expand its programs to increase the )Tj
T*
(understanding of LDC leaders regarding the consequences of rapid )Tj
T*
(population growth and their commitment to undertaking remedial )Tj
T*
(actions. This should include necessary actions for collecting )Tj
ET
EMC
/Artifact <>BDC
Q
0 0 0 rg
BT
/T1_0 1 Tf
7.9595 0 0 7.9595 18 7.9596 Tm
(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm \(110 of 111\)6/15/2008 4:19:34 PM)Tj
ET
EMC
endstream
endobj
542 0 obj(NSSM200)
endobj
543 0 obj<>
endobj
544 0 obj<>
endobj
545 0 obj<>
endobj
546 0 obj<>
endobj
547 0 obj[544 0 R]
endobj
548 0 obj(http://wlym.com/text/NSSM200.htm)
endobj
549 0 obj(;利堐菵D4圮襥})
endobj
550 0 obj<>
endobj
551 0 obj<>
endobj
552 0 obj(妵惞衆\5PmNjx)
endobj
553 0 obj<>
endobj
554 0 obj<>
endobj
555 0 obj<>
endobj
556 0 obj<>
endobj
557 0 obj<>stream
2008-06-15T16:19:34+05:00
2008-06-15T16:19:23+05:00
2008-06-15T16:19:34+05:00
application/pdf
NSSM200
uuid:eb4444c9-e855-4b3a-8b31-fa17435cf663
uuid:caac7cd6-2ba5-4686-bf6d-fd8ee91b9d49
Acrobat Web Capture 7.0
endstream
endobj
xref
0 558
0000000004 65535 f
0000000016 00000 n
0000000145 00000 n
0000000223 00000 n
0000000006 00000 f
0000000362 00000 n
0000000038 00001 f
0000000430 00000 n
0000000624 00000 n
0000000727 00000 n
0000000771 00000 n
0000000819 00000 n
0000004275 00000 n
0000004325 00000 n
0000004349 00000 n
0000004544 00000 n
0000004568 00000 n
0000004763 00000 n
0000004787 00000 n
0000004996 00000 n
0000005020 00000 n
0000005191 00000 n
0000005215 00000 n
0000005422 00000 n
0000005446 00000 n
0000005665 00000 n
0000005689 00000 n
0000005884 00000 n
0000005908 00000 n
0000006103 00000 n
0000006127 00000 n
0000006334 00000 n
0000006358 00000 n
0000006565 00000 n
0000006589 00000 n
0000006809 00000 n
0000006904 00000 n
0000006998 00000 n
0000000042 00001 f
0000007084 00000 n
0000007108 00000 n
0000007304 00000 n
0000000045 00001 f
0000007394 00000 n
0000007418 00000 n
0000000048 00001 f
0000007626 00000 n
0000007650 00000 n
0000000052 00001 f
0000007858 00000 n
0000007882 00000 n
0000008104 00000 n
0000000059 00001 f
0000008170 00000 n
0000008194 00000 n
0000008376 00000 n
0000008400 00000 n
0000008634 00000 n
0000008729 00000 n
0000000070 00001 f
0000008823 00000 n
0000008847 00000 n
0000009029 00000 n
0000009060 00000 n
0000009241 00000 n
0000009299 00000 n
0000009470 00000 n
0000009513 00000 n
0000009556 00000 n
0000009599 00000 n
0000000073 00001 f
0000009795 00000 n
0000009819 00000 n
0000000076 00001 f
0000010039 00000 n
0000010063 00000 n
0000000081 00001 f
0000010285 00000 n
0000010309 00000 n
0000010482 00000 n
0000010506 00000 n
0000000088 00001 f
0000010728 00000 n
0000010752 00000 n
0000010924 00000 n
0000010955 00000 n
0000011135 00000 n
0000011358 00000 n
0000000094 00001 f
0000011453 00000 n
0000011477 00000 n
0000011649 00000 n
0000011680 00000 n
0000011851 00000 n
0000000101 00001 f
0000012074 00000 n
0000012098 00000 n
0000012270 00000 n
0000012308 00000 n
0000012489 00000 n
0000012660 00000 n
0000000106 00001 f
0000012885 00000 n
0000012910 00000 n
0000013092 00000 n
0000013118 00000 n
0000000111 00001 f
0000013343 00000 n
0000013368 00000 n
0000013541 00000 n
0000013567 00000 n
0000000115 00001 f
0000013777 00000 n
0000013802 00000 n
0000014012 00000 n
0000000118 00001 f
0000014111 00000 n
0000014136 00000 n
0000000121 00001 f
0000014346 00000 n
0000014371 00000 n
0000000124 00001 f
0000014569 00000 n
0000014594 00000 n
0000000129 00001 f
0000014819 00000 n
0000014844 00000 n
0000015026 00000 n
0000015052 00000 n
0000000133 00001 f
0000015250 00000 n
0000015275 00000 n
0000015485 00000 n
0000000136 00001 f
0000015586 00000 n
0000015611 00000 n
0000000145 00001 f
0000015824 00000 n
0000015849 00000 n
0000016030 00000 n
0000016088 00000 n
0000016270 00000 n
0000016451 00000 n
0000016633 00000 n
0000016815 00000 n
0000000148 00001 f
0000017013 00000 n
0000017038 00000 n
0000000153 00001 f
0000017263 00000 n
0000017288 00000 n
0000017471 00000 n
0000017497 00000 n
0000000160 00001 f
0000017710 00000 n
0000017735 00000 n
0000017918 00000 n
0000017952 00000 n
0000018135 00000 n
0000018333 00000 n
0000000163 00001 f
0000018434 00000 n
0000018459 00000 n
0000000166 00001 f
0000018657 00000 n
0000018682 00000 n
0000000169 00001 f
0000018892 00000 n
0000018917 00000 n
0000000172 00001 f
0000019115 00000 n
0000019140 00000 n
0000000176 00001 f
0000019350 00000 n
0000019375 00000 n
0000019585 00000 n
0000000179 00001 f
0000019686 00000 n
0000019711 00000 n
0000000184 00001 f
0000019924 00000 n
0000019949 00000 n
0000020132 00000 n
0000020158 00000 n
0000000187 00001 f
0000020368 00000 n
0000020393 00000 n
0000000190 00001 f
0000020603 00000 n
0000020628 00000 n
0000000196 00001 f
0000020841 00000 n
0000020866 00000 n
0000021049 00000 n
0000021075 00000 n
0000021285 00000 n
0000000199 00001 f
0000021386 00000 n
0000021411 00000 n
0000000202 00001 f
0000021621 00000 n
0000021646 00000 n
0000000205 00001 f
0000021856 00000 n
0000021881 00000 n
0000000208 00001 f
0000022079 00000 n
0000022104 00000 n
0000000212 00001 f
0000022314 00000 n
0000022339 00000 n
0000022549 00000 n
0000000217 00001 f
0000022650 00000 n
0000022675 00000 n
0000022873 00000 n
0000022973 00000 n
0000000220 00001 f
0000023069 00000 n
0000023094 00000 n
0000000223 00001 f
0000023304 00000 n
0000023329 00000 n
0000000226 00001 f
0000023539 00000 n
0000023564 00000 n
0000000230 00001 f
0000023762 00000 n
0000023787 00000 n
0000023997 00000 n
0000000233 00001 f
0000024098 00000 n
0000024123 00000 n
0000000236 00001 f
0000024321 00000 n
0000024346 00000 n
0000000239 00001 f
0000024556 00000 n
0000024581 00000 n
0000000242 00001 f
0000024779 00000 n
0000024804 00000 n
0000000246 00001 f
0000025014 00000 n
0000025039 00000 n
0000025249 00000 n
0000000249 00001 f
0000025350 00000 n
0000025375 00000 n
0000000252 00001 f
0000025573 00000 n
0000025598 00000 n
0000000255 00001 f
0000025796 00000 n
0000025821 00000 n
0000000258 00001 f
0000026019 00000 n
0000026044 00000 n
0000000261 00001 f
0000026242 00000 n
0000026267 00000 n
0000000264 00001 f
0000026627 00000 n
0000026825 00000 n
0000000267 00001 f
0000026926 00000 n
0000026951 00000 n
0000000270 00001 f
0000027161 00000 n
0000027186 00000 n
0000000273 00001 f
0000027384 00000 n
0000027409 00000 n
0000000276 00001 f
0000027619 00000 n
0000027644 00000 n
0000000280 00001 f
0000027854 00000 n
0000027879 00000 n
0000028077 00000 n
0000000283 00001 f
0000028178 00000 n
0000028203 00000 n
0000000286 00001 f
0000028413 00000 n
0000028438 00000 n
0000000289 00001 f
0000028660 00000 n
0000028685 00000 n
0000000292 00001 f
0000028883 00000 n
0000028908 00000 n
0000000296 00001 f
0000029118 00000 n
0000029143 00000 n
0000029341 00000 n
0000000300 00001 f
0000029442 00000 n
0000029467 00000 n
0000029665 00000 n
0000000303 00001 f
0000029765 00000 n
0000029790 00000 n
0000000306 00001 f
0000029988 00000 n
0000030013 00000 n
0000000310 00001 f
0000030223 00000 n
0000030248 00000 n
0000030293 00000 n
0000000314 00001 f
0000030491 00000 n
0000030516 00000 n
0000030714 00000 n
0000000317 00001 f
0000030815 00000 n
0000030840 00000 n
0000000320 00001 f
0000031050 00000 n
0000031075 00000 n
0000000323 00001 f
0000031273 00000 n
0000031298 00000 n
0000000326 00001 f
0000031496 00000 n
0000031521 00000 n
0000000330 00001 f
0000031719 00000 n
0000031744 00000 n
0000031954 00000 n
0000000333 00001 f
0000032055 00000 n
0000032080 00000 n
0000000336 00001 f
0000032278 00000 n
0000032303 00000 n
0000000339 00001 f
0000032501 00000 n
0000032526 00000 n
0000000342 00001 f
0000032724 00000 n
0000032749 00000 n
0000000346 00001 f
0000032947 00000 n
0000032972 00000 n
0000033182 00000 n
0000000349 00001 f
0000033283 00000 n
0000033308 00000 n
0000000352 00001 f
0000033506 00000 n
0000033531 00000 n
0000000355 00001 f
0000033729 00000 n
0000033754 00000 n
0000000358 00001 f
0000033952 00000 n
0000033977 00000 n
0000000364 00001 f
0000034190 00000 n
0000034215 00000 n
0000034398 00000 n
0000034424 00000 n
0000034622 00000 n
0000000367 00001 f
0000034723 00000 n
0000034748 00000 n
0000000372 00001 f
0000034946 00000 n
0000034971 00000 n
0000035364 00000 n
0000035934 00000 n
0000000375 00001 f
0000036144 00000 n
0000036169 00000 n
0000000378 00001 f
0000036379 00000 n
0000036404 00000 n
0000000382 00001 f
0000036614 00000 n
0000036639 00000 n
0000036850 00000 n
0000000386 00001 f
0000036951 00000 n
0000036976 00000 n
0000037187 00000 n
0000000389 00001 f
0000037303 00000 n
0000037328 00000 n
0000000394 00001 f
0000037554 00000 n
0000037579 00000 n
0000037762 00000 n
0000037788 00000 n
0000000397 00001 f
0000037987 00000 n
0000038012 00000 n
0000000403 00001 f
0000038226 00000 n
0000038251 00000 n
0000038434 00000 n
0000038460 00000 n
0000038659 00000 n
0000000406 00001 f
0000038760 00000 n
0000038785 00000 n
0000000409 00001 f
0000038996 00000 n
0000039021 00000 n
0000000413 00001 f
0000039220 00000 n
0000039245 00000 n
0000039290 00000 n
0000000416 00001 f
0000039489 00000 n
0000039514 00000 n
0000000420 00001 f
0000039725 00000 n
0000039750 00000 n
0000039949 00000 n
0000000422 00001 f
0000040058 00000 n
0000000423 00001 f
0000000424 00001 f
0000000425 00001 f
0000000426 00001 f
0000000427 00001 f
0000000428 00001 f
0000000429 00001 f
0000000430 00001 f
0000000000 00001 f
0000040083 00000 n
0000043286 00000 n
0000045912 00000 n
0000049317 00000 n
0000053917 00000 n
0000057980 00000 n
0000062085 00000 n
0000066582 00000 n
0000070818 00000 n
0000074814 00000 n
0000079327 00000 n
0000084075 00000 n
0000087930 00000 n
0000091952 00000 n
0000096363 00000 n
0000101500 00000 n
0000105728 00000 n
0000109373 00000 n
0000113732 00000 n
0000118306 00000 n
0000123093 00000 n
0000127656 00000 n
0000132455 00000 n
0000136992 00000 n
0000141697 00000 n
0000146298 00000 n
0000150727 00000 n
0000155350 00000 n
0000159893 00000 n
0000164338 00000 n
0000168644 00000 n
0000172957 00000 n
0000177846 00000 n
0000182310 00000 n
0000186406 00000 n
0000190827 00000 n
0000194160 00000 n
0000196823 00000 n
0000200350 00000 n
0000204745 00000 n
0000209089 00000 n
0000213811 00000 n
0000218493 00000 n
0000222910 00000 n
0000227219 00000 n
0000231656 00000 n
0000235942 00000 n
0000240248 00000 n
0000244818 00000 n
0000249259 00000 n
0000253611 00000 n
0000257651 00000 n
0000261684 00000 n
0000266177 00000 n
0000270376 00000 n
0000274618 00000 n
0000278520 00000 n
0000282173 00000 n
0000285984 00000 n
0000290089 00000 n
0000294441 00000 n
0000298568 00000 n
0000301678 00000 n
0000305974 00000 n
0000310455 00000 n
0000314633 00000 n
0000319087 00000 n
0000323029 00000 n
0000327119 00000 n
0000331939 00000 n
0000336047 00000 n
0000340179 00000 n
0000344226 00000 n
0000348629 00000 n
0000352855 00000 n
0000357277 00000 n
0000361618 00000 n
0000366120 00000 n
0000370094 00000 n
0000374785 00000 n
0000379204 00000 n
0000383252 00000 n
0000387707 00000 n
0000392359 00000 n
0000396416 00000 n
0000400448 00000 n
0000404758 00000 n
0000409156 00000 n
0000413218 00000 n
0000417289 00000 n
0000421118 00000 n
0000425506 00000 n
0000429677 00000 n
0000433534 00000 n
0000437675 00000 n
0000441936 00000 n
0000445721 00000 n
0000449436 00000 n
0000453146 00000 n
0000457111 00000 n
0000460959 00000 n
0000464717 00000 n
0000466160 00000 n
0000469938 00000 n
0000474381 00000 n
0000478140 00000 n
0000482390 00000 n
0000486546 00000 n
0000490924 00000 n
0000494614 00000 n
0000498159 00000 n
0000501708 00000 n
0000501734 00000 n
0000501772 00000 n
0000501841 00000 n
0000501872 00000 n
0000501976 00000 n
0000502002 00000 n
0000502053 00000 n
0000502088 00000 n
0000503062 00000 n
0000503115 00000 n
0000503151 00000 n
0000503195 00000 n
0000503239 00000 n
0000503324 00000 n
0000503412 00000 n
trailer
<]>>
startxref
506871
%%EOF